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Old Dec 5, 2022 | 11:52 pm
  #2371  
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Originally Posted by Kilian Zoll
Absolutely, and the protests were probably exactly what they were waiting for, as it now allows the narrative to be:

1. "See? We do listen to the will of the people. We kept Covid out as long as it was supported by general sentiment of the people, and now that that sentiment is potentially turning, we are following suit"

...and, once community spread start skyrocketing - and cases, ICU hospitalisations and, inevitably, deaths start spiking:

2. "This is what you guys wanted" -- a message to both anti-Zero Covid proponents, and even to some extent foreign media (although the narrative will of course be very different there)


We went through a very similar process in SG and it was handled similarly - from a narrative perspective - by the authorities here. Same playbook, but very different circumstances obviously.
Plus, they might be pressuring the WHO to end the status of the pandemic.

Also, if COVID gets classified as class B or whatever they call it, the number of deaths and cases may no longer be reported in a timely manner.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 8:41 am
  #2372  
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Here is an unofficial list of December flights (not including HK, Macau, or Taiwan):
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/50eJcgwJ9OQrx1GqB_AawA

I didn't notice any additions, and they appear to have omitted San Francisco entirely (possibly an oversight).
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 8:42 am
  #2373  
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Let's see what happens tomorrow https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...es-2022-12-05/

A Xinhua editorial claimed “The most difficult period has passed, and now the pathogenicity of Omicron is weakening, and our response capability is increasing, which has laid a foundation and provided conditions for continuous optimization and improvement of prevention and control measures.”
source: http://www.news.cn/politics/2022-12/05/c_1129185654.htm

A CCTV story recounted the experiences of six former COVID patients to reassure the public that the virus is mild and treatable.
source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nZF7MqwvKm_tzx_9IMkLug

Between Sunday and Monday, three more China-made, recombinant protein COVID vaccines were approved for emergency use in China.
All three remain in Phase III clinical trials both in China and abroad.
source: https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21042665
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 9:33 am
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Originally Posted by moondog
Here is an unofficial list of December flights (not including HK, Macau, or Taiwan):
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/50eJcgwJ9OQrx1GqB_AawA

I didn't notice any additions, and they appear to have omitted San Francisco entirely (possibly an oversight).
It looks like that list only covers Chinese airlines. Only UA flies SFO - China right now.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 9:52 am
  #2375  
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Originally Posted by boat stuck
It looks like that list only covers Chinese airlines. Only UA flies SFO - China right now.
Oh yeah, now I remember that those guys publish a separate list for non-Chinese airlines.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 10:57 am
  #2376  
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Again, call me a sceptic or even politically biased from where I'm from or the views I expressed I held in the past (and still hold).
But in terms of breaking Covid Zero I still have to see it to believe it.

I turned around on China containing Covid, initially not believing they have contained the outbreak, until I have received multiple assurances from people I know in addition to reported news that this was happening. This of course then became Covid Zero.

So if the state wants to tell me now that they're reversing on that I need to see the following:
1) Far more flights into and out of China
2) The HK-Mainland border reopened
3) Reports from the ground not just of cities reopening, but towns not becoming locked in
3a) I don't have a lot of contacts with people outside of cities - it will be a bit of hearsay from those that do.

Otherwise, it may be a case of - the country is reopening, but just not here.

Plus, can they really do a city vs country divide? I doubt it. Unless I see 2m die, I don't think they're serious. I don't wish ill on other people - but - this is the butcher's bill that is outstanding.
HK paid a bill of 11K deaths when we lost it - hospital patient rooms filled with corpses - before we are where we are now. And our public health system is presently more effective than any city in Mainland.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 4:14 pm
  #2377  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
So if the state wants to tell me now that they're reversing on that I need to see the following:
1) Far more flights into and out of China
At the risk of beating a dead horse, the elimination of the third-country shenanigans (including that multiple lab PCR test ritual) was a BIG deal for inbound; sure you might end up in Qingdao or Xiamen, but that's not the end of the world. And, getting flights out is not difficult or expensive (of course, the addressable market remains constrained though)
2) The HK-Mainland border reopened
Isn't it (e.g. Shekou, Shenzhen Bay) kind of open already?
3) Reports from the ground not just of cities reopening, but towns not becoming locked in
3a) I don't have a lot of contacts with people outside of cities - it will be a bit of hearsay from those that do.
Don't small-town people at least attempt to post their tails of woe on social media? As long as they stay up for more than ~15 minutes, they presumably go viral.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 5:08 pm
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Originally Posted by percysmith
<snip>
This of course then became Covid Zero.

So if the state wants to tell me now that they're reversing on that I need to see the following:
<snip>
I am likely not fully understanding what you posted, but what it is that you're not believing, exactly?
That they moved away from "Covid Zero"?


FWIW: Supposedly PEK and PKX are not going to require proof a recent negative test to enter the facility, and some other restrictions are to be lifted today (or soon), with a declassification (or downgrade) of Covid-19 to a less severe category.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 5:52 pm
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Originally Posted by moondog
At the risk of beating a dead horse, the elimination of the third-country shenanigans (including that multiple lab PCR test ritual) was a BIG deal for inbound; sure you might end up in Qingdao or Xiamen, but that's not the end of the world. And, getting flights out is not difficult or expensive (of course, the addressable market remains constrained though)
Not sure you are aware even from here in HK, how Stockholm that sounds.

Originally Posted by moondog
Isn't it (e.g. Shekou, Shenzhen Bay) kind of open already?
Shenzhen Bay still quotaed ,1000/day https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99...0%863%E9%A1%9E ?

Originally Posted by moondog
Don't small-town people at least attempt to post their tails of woe on social media? As long as they stay up for more than ~15 minutes, they presumably go viral.
Easier to suppress unconnected towns and villages physically and online, than cities like Shanghai.
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Old Dec 6, 2022 | 6:06 pm
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Easier to suppress unconnected towns and villages physically and online, than cities like Shanghai.
Not sure if true, but from what I hear it's not the big, bad govt. that's making these small villages/towns/country be closed off, but them themselves.
Whether that comes from an irrational fear of Covid-19; the fact some places had no (or hardly any) lockdowns or cases so far and they want to keep it that way, I have no idea.
But it's said that come CNY, although China as a whole might be pretty much open by then, some smaller, outlying places will put up their own 'borders' and check-points to try and prevent anyone entering with Covid-19.
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Old Dec 7, 2022 | 3:31 am
  #2381  
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Originally Posted by narvik
Not sure if true, but from what I hear it's not the big, bad govt. that's making these small villages/towns/country be closed off, but them themselves.
Whether that comes from an irrational fear of Covid-19; the fact some places had no (or hardly any) lockdowns or cases so far and they want to keep it that way, I have no idea.
But it's said that come CNY, although China as a whole might be pretty much open by then, some smaller, outlying places will put up their own 'borders' and check-points to try and prevent anyone entering with Covid-19.
Indeed. One major reason for the Foxconn unrest in Zhengzhou was the fact that they housed new workers with the old and the new ones didn't like that because they believed the existing workers were infected with Covid.
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Old Dec 7, 2022 | 7:00 am
  #2382  
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Originally Posted by narvik
Not sure if true, but from what I hear it's not the big, bad govt. that's making these small villages/towns/country be closed off, but them themselves.
Whether that comes from an irrational fear of Covid-19; the fact some places had no (or hardly any) lockdowns or cases so far and they want to keep it that way, I have no idea.
But it's said that come CNY, although China as a whole might be pretty much open by then, some smaller, outlying places will put up their own 'borders' and check-points to try and prevent anyone entering with Covid-19.
Local governments seems to be a convenient bogeyman for policies set by central government and not influenced by them.

- they cant criticise the central government back
- central Govt set their resourcing or lack thereof
- all costs (death toll) are blamed on them, general social order is credited to central govt
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Old Dec 7, 2022 | 7:10 am
  #2383  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Not sure you are aware even from here in HK, how Stockholm that sounds.



Shenzhen Bay still quotaed ,1000/day https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99...0%863%E9%A1%9E ?



Easier to suppress unconnected towns and villages physically and online, than cities like Shanghai.
Originally Posted by percysmith
Local governments seems to be a convenient bogeyman for policies set by central government and not influenced by them.

- they cant criticise the central government back
- central Govt set their resourcing or lack thereof
- all costs (death toll) are blamed on them, general social order is credited to central govt
For much of April and May, the local government in Shanghai effectively was the central government. They have also taken active roles in other spotlight situations.
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Old Dec 7, 2022 | 7:30 pm
  #2384  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Shenzhen Bay still quotaed ,1000/day https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99...0%863%E9%A1%9E ?
Shenzhen Bay increase to 2,000/day from tomorrow. Baby steps, baby steps.
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Old Dec 7, 2022 | 9:12 pm
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Latest rumor swirling on Wechat:

China will remove restrictions on international travel by January 9, and move to the 0+3 system that Hong Kong is using for international arrivals.
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