moondog

I'm pretty sure the spring 2022 fair was online-only, and I don't believe either of the 2021 fairs was well attended. If I had to bet, I would say that fall 2022 won't go so well (due to a more important event taking place in November), but spring 2023 will be strong.

m.y

I don't share the optimism here at all unless two things change:

1) end of centralized quarantine. Centralized quarantine means there is limit in the numbers of passengers that can enter. Decreasing from 14 days to 7 days means they could accept double the passenger with same facilities, (they might still need more staff processing the additional passengers)

2) end the circuit breaker rule. You can't plan trips if half the flights are cancelled due to prior passengers being tested positive. Unless you plan to be in China for several weeks or have very deep pockets to buy multiple times tickets, it is not worth the risk.

As we seen the COVID cases in Taiwan spike even with their strict entrance restrictions still in place, I don't think China will change their stance much as they have staked too much political points on keeping COVID out.

travelinmanS

China is now adding monkey pox screening in addition to their screening/quarantining for the lethal Covid virus.

boat stuck

Monkeypox is actually quite a bit more lethal than Omicron. Around 100x the case fatality rate.

moondog

You and I have two mutual friends who came here 10 and 15 years after us, immediately after they finished college. Both started out jobless, taught English for a year, and then moved on to executive positions (after their Chinese improved). I am guessing we won't see more of their ilk for a while.

Next, let's look at high-level executives. MNC brands used to have around 5 expats each. Now, we're looking at 1 or 2. One part of this is the insane costs. The other is China assignments are not currently coveted. Furthermore, McKinsey can easily find competent Chinese citizens to work for them now.

Third, we have tourism. This is seemingly something you'd think they'd value. But, now that Chinese can't leave easily, they are going to the same destinations that foreigners used to prop up.

Finally, consider the economy as a whole. They definitely don't want to be shut off from other countries because exports and FDI are big revenue sources. As such, I'm guessing trade-related business will normalize quite soon.

In closing, I have doubts that mom will be able to visit in 2023, but the Canton Fair will almost definitely happen, including special visas.

percysmith

Special visas and Beijing Winter Olympics-style closed loop?

UA_Flyer

I am sure China will relax its travel, qurantine, restriction policies etc, including the visa policy. Things cannot stay the same.

The issue is timing and to the degree the policy will change. There are many expats and locals who build and invest their careers on globalization and China being big part of globalization.

Unfortinately time is not infinite, people have obligations and responsibilities to themselves and families, and also not many have 3 to 5 years ( we are already in year 3 of Covid)to wait around to let their career and businesses sitting in uncertainty. I am sure things wiell recover eventually (geopolitics permitting), but I have to move on instead of waiting. I will be happy to see everyone who has invested in their career in China prosper once it is all over and see geopolitics is not longer an issue on a long term. My best wishes to everyone in this thread who all have stakes in China,

gudugan

Wow, I could not agree more with this entire post.

In the beginning of 2020 I had everything set up to move to China for at least 1.5 years for a big career change. For better or for worse that never happened and I haven’t been to China since 2018.

I pretty much gave up around mid 2021 (ironically about 1.5 years after the theoretical initial start date) as the rest of the world was going back to normal. Nowadays even if the border was open, things have changed and the same move wouldn’t be possible for another 3-5 years if ever.

At some point, waiting for too long is 守株待兔, or in other words, waiting for a windfall that might never come.

I look forward to coming back as a tourist one day

moondog

I don't think things will stay exactly the same because they are clearly taking baby steps in the right direction, and they certainly care about their economy (e.g. citizens who can't eat tend to be unhappy). That having been said, the self-reliance policies predate Covid by several years. For example, pre-X, it was fairly common for people to visit China on business visas and effectively work in their companies' China offices, denying tax revenues as a result. X put the breaks on this practice with remarkable efficacy. Then, look at all of the private (mostly ESL) schools that were booted. The main argument there was that these schools and training centers provided an unfair advantage to wealthy families. However, the result was obviously fewer foreigners. This actually seems to have been pretty well-received among rank and file citizens

travelinmanS

Zero Covid is also well received amongst rank and file citizens. Covid is viewed by most citizens as a killer virus that ravaged the rest of the world but hasn’t done so in China thanks to the strong efforts of their leadership.

This is why I am not as optimistic as you about things changing anytime soon.

tauphi

Yes, with Shanghai they have proven that even with a >500,000 case-count and Omicron BA.2.2 they can still bring it back to zero in just two months. This has further emboldened them on the current path. The loosening of quarantine rules is simply an admission that border controls are never going to be water-tight, so as long as they're ready to mop up any inevitable leakages it is possible to lower the entry barriers slightly.

percysmith

Key feature of Chinese governance - whether pre-X or after - is that loopholes are always given, but can be slammed shut either individually for those who speak out, or collectively if some Christians are needed to feed the lions. The party still needs to be Ceasar.

Just as much as Joe Bloggs (or Dawen Bloggs) want to believe everyone is equal, everyone who thinks they’re better than Dawen Bloggs needs to believe the rules don’t apply to them https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/vm4ib2/my_conversation_with_a_proccp_hongkonger_in/ . If the truth will out, both sides will be very, very upset.

moondog

You probably noticed this before you left China, but the trend has picked up steam during the course of the past several weeks.

The idea is to use cell phone photos/video as a means to snitch on people you deem to be running afoul of the regulations. For example, when I was on Wuding Road (sidewalk) the other night (for Crocus Jerry's birthday celebration), some social media influencer dude rode by on a bicycle, took pics of all of us (not wearing masks), and then posted them to WeChat and Weibo along with derogatory comments about "stupid foreigners". We got the posts removed fairly easily, but not before thousands of views occurred. The influencers do this every day. On a similar note, some of my neighbors have installed CCTV cameras on their balconies so they can monitor outside activities 24/7. Their thrill seems to be more limited in scope than the Weibo guys, from what I can tell, because they only post to our community WeChat group. However, they enjoy shaming people using specific apartment numbers (e.g. Please spit on this guy who lives in building 8, 1003 the next time you see him and tell him he is a monster).

I don't think there is a legal requirement to wear masks outside, but it's quite clear these folks are angered by others who don't possess the requisite community spirit.

I suppose I notice the foreigner targeting more than local targeting because I happen to be a foreigner, and the bloggers are fond of places that foreigners are likely to visit, but I'm not willing to proclaim this is a strictly anti-foreigner movement because the vast majority of the targets in my own compound are elderly locals who go outside at 6a to do taichi or smoke cigarettes. That having been said, the notion of disliking foreigners, especially the ones who take their jobs/women, might be undergoing a new growth phase.

In closing, I agree that zero-covid has a strong backing here...and, this has become moblike.

percysmith

It’s legal requirement here. I claim no expertise or confidence in understanding Mainland law but I will be surprised if Mainland will be more lax than HK in this respect.

Grassing on your neighbours is a Nazi and Stalinist Soviet feature. Enough said.

I think everyone will find exceptions with people who still contact and keep in touch with foreigners, but among the general populace, xenophobia must be taken to a 15.

moondog

How does one drink a beer on the sidewalk (legal, and the only option in many places) while wearing a mask? I realize that an obvious solution to this problem would be banning alcohol consumption on sidewalks, but that doesn't seem likely to me because bar owners have been withholding rent for the past 3 months (they basically claim that they can't pay if they aren't permitted to bring in revenues and you promised me that you had amazing 关系 upon lease signing), and this is not good for the economy. They could also lobby to get Lawson's/FamilyMart shut down as well (for booze sales) because a bar than can only sell through a window on the sidewalk is no different in terms of function.