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Will my award waitlist clear? Master thread 2019

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Old Jan 7, 2019, 7:35 pm
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Last edit by: sxc
Continuation of this thread:

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cathay-pacific-marco-polo-club/1581009-how-exactly-does-cx-waitlist-work-awards.html
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Will my award waitlist clear? Master thread 2019

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Old Nov 20, 2019, 11:30 pm
  #706  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: YYZ
Programs: CX GO, AC Aeroplan 25K, AMEX PLAT, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium, IHG Spire Amb
Posts: 464
Originally Posted by kchan902
Hello all, I'm new to Asia Miles and trying to redeem my points for an award booking from SFO - HKG.

Currently waitlisted for the following flights on December 20, 2019. What would be my chances of these awards clearing? I won't get confirmation until 3 days before, otherwise it'll expire.

CX879 - business
CX873 - business/first class
CX893 - business

Could someone please provide some instructions on how to view the seat availability in Expert Flyer and/or KVS? Thank you!
Don't hold any hope. This is peak travel season for students to travel back to HK for the Christmas break. Flights are close to sold out already at a quick glance.
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Old Nov 21, 2019, 11:50 am
  #707  
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by etkuo
Don't hold any hope. This is peak travel season for students to travel back to HK for the Christmas break. Flights are close to sold out already at a quick glance.
Thank you for helping take a quick look! I signed up for ExpertFlyer and looked at the available classes. for CX879 on December 20 it shows J9 C9 D6 I5 U W9 R0 E0 T0 Y1 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0. what does each of the classes mean? sorry I am new to all of this.

Last edited by kchan902; Nov 21, 2019 at 12:06 pm
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Old Nov 21, 2019, 1:55 pm
  #708  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Programs: Marriott Bonvoy Platinum, Hilton Honors Diamond, Delta Gold
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Originally Posted by kchan902
Thank you for helping take a quick look! I signed up for ExpertFlyer and looked at the available classes. for CX879 on December 20 it shows J9 C9 D6 I5 U W9 R0 E0 T0 Y1 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0. what does each of the classes mean? sorry I am new to all of this.
You can Google it but basically from Y and down is all economy class codes from Full to Deep Discount which is practically sold out or maybe even oversold. J is business class so although it shows 9 available they may be holding seats to move people from oversold lower classes.
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Old Nov 21, 2019, 2:25 pm
  #709  
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by friedablass
You can Google it but basically from Y and down is all economy class codes from Full to Deep Discount which is practically sold out or maybe even oversold. J is business class so although it shows 9 available they may be holding seats to move people from oversold lower classes.
Thank you! I'm looking into earlier December dates and it looks like December 17th might be a better chance? There are still seats available in all class cabins.

CX879 - J9 C7 D6 I5 U W9 R9 E0 T0 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L2 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0

CX873 - F0 A0 Z0 J9 C9 D9 I0 U W9 R9 E7 T0 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0

CX 893 - J9 C9 D9 I0 U W9 R7 E0 T0 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0
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Old Nov 21, 2019, 4:32 pm
  #710  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Yes correct but 873 is at F0 which means no chance for F award unless there are cancellation and they decide to release as an award.
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Old Nov 22, 2019, 4:55 pm
  #711  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: NYC
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist, Bonvoy Titanium, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 368
Question

delete

Last edited by xkr0p; Nov 26, 2019 at 9:34 am
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Old Nov 22, 2019, 6:47 pm
  #712  
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Bkk-jfk/ewr > bkk-hkg-jfk/ewr
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Old Nov 23, 2019, 12:09 am
  #713  
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 1
NYC to SGN WAITLIST FOR DEC. 12, 2019

Hi Guys -
First time doing a waitlist using Asiamiles. Can you let me know if there's a high chance any of the flights below will clear?

CX899 EWR to HKG // CX767 HKG to SGN
CX841 JFK to HKG // CX799 HKG to SGN
CX831 JFK to HKG // CX721 HKG to SGN

Thanks!
Alex
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Old Nov 23, 2019, 12:58 am
  #714  
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Originally Posted by mralexvuong
NYC to SGN WAITLIST FOR DEC. 12, 2019
Should be just before school and uni holidays? Maybe
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Old Nov 25, 2019, 7:29 am
  #715  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
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Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist, Bonvoy Titanium, Hilton Diamond
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Bkk-jfk/ewr > bkk-hkg-jfk/ewr
I don't follow? There is no BKK-JFK/EWR direct flight, but maybe im misunderstanding what you're saying
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Old Nov 25, 2019, 11:05 am
  #716  
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 2
Hello.

Complete noob here (but spent the last hour reading the whole thread and learning about acronyms).
MPC Green member, on Waitlist for 2x HKG-CMB (CX611) 20-Dec-19, Economy Standard Award (I guess would be B Class)?

I can only access seat map on EF (plenty of seats) but not the Fare Classes/Awards. So wondering if somebody could use his crystal ball to check if these have a chance to clear?

Side Q: I read that it's harder to clear award flights starting from HKG, could a solution be to add a previous sector (say TPE-HKG-CMB) to get higher chance of award flight, and no-show on the first leg?

Thanks
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Old Nov 25, 2019, 11:17 pm
  #717  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Programs: Marriott Bonvoy Platinum, Hilton Honors Diamond, Delta Gold
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Originally Posted by guillaumecb
Hello.

Complete noob here (but spent the last hour reading the whole thread and learning about acronyms).
MPC Green member, on Waitlist for 2x HKG-CMB (CX611) 20-Dec-19, Economy Standard Award (I guess would be B Class)?

I can only access seat map on EF (plenty of seats) but not the Fare Classes/Awards. So wondering if somebody could use his crystal ball to check if these have a chance to clear?

Side Q: I read that it's harder to clear award flights starting from HKG, could a solution be to add a previous sector (say TPE-HKG-CMB) to get higher chance of award flight, and no-show on the first leg?

Thanks
Welcome to FT .

I can only answer your side question: if you no-show for the first sector of your trip, then your entire itinerary will get canceled. So don't try it.
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Old Nov 26, 2019, 12:55 am
  #718  
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Location: HKG
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Originally Posted by guillaumecb
Side Q: I read that it's harder to clear award flights starting from HKG, could a solution be to add a previous sector (say TPE-HKG-CMB) to get higher chance of award flight, and no-show on the first leg?
Originally Posted by friedablass
I can only answer your side question: if you no-show for the first sector of your trip, then your entire itinerary will get canceled. So don't try it.
You can use the TPE-HKG-CMB redemption ticket like a ex-TPE revenue ticket. TPE allows same plane turns right?
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Old Nov 26, 2019, 9:37 am
  #719  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
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Posts: 368
Question

Reposting since I had some of the dates wrong. Would appreciate any advice if these are worth transferring the miles over to CX, if you guys think theres a chance of clearing waitlist. I could always just waitlist the HKG-NYC leg and book BKK-HKG on my own if this has a better chance? This would be for 2 tickets in Business or First on 3/22/20. (Not sure how to pull up the fare buckets). There are all the options that came up:

March 22, 2020

CX 646 BKK 0635 - HKG 1015 / CX 840 HKG 1610 - JFK 2005
CX 616 BKK 0635 - HKG 1015 / CX 846 HKG 1855 - JFK 2230
CX 750 BKK 1140 - HKG 1530 / CX 890 HKG 1815 - EWR 2140
CX 750 BKK 1140 - HKG 1530 / CX 846 HKG 1855 - JFK 2230
CX 712 BKK 1640 - HKG 2025 / CX 888 HKG 0100 - YVR - JFK 0705
CX 712 BKK 1640 - HKG 2025 / CX 830 HKG 0930 - JFK 1310 (not ideal, 13hr layover)
CX 708 BKK 1740 - HKG 2125 / CX 888 HKG 0100 - YVR - JFK 0705
CX 708 BKK 1740 - HKG 2125 / CX 830 HKG 0930 - JFK 1310 (not ideal, 12hr layover)
CX 708 BKK 1740 - HKG 2125 / CX 840 HKG 1610 - JFK 2005 (not ideal 18hr layover)
CX 702 BKK 1915 - HKG 2300 / CX 888 HKG 0100 - YVR - JFK 0705
CX 702 BKK 1915 - HKG 2300 / CX 830 HKG 0930 - JFK 1310 (not ideal, 10hr layover)
CX 702 BKK 1914 - HKG 2300 / CX 840 HKG 1610 - JFK 2005 (not ideal, 17hr layover)
CX 702 BKK 1914 - HKG 2300 / CX 890 HKG 1815 - EWR 2140 (not ideal, 19hr layover)
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Old Nov 26, 2019, 1:59 pm
  #720  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: CX MPC DM
Posts: 416
Originally Posted by xkr0p
Reposting since I had some of the dates wrong. Would appreciate any advice if these are worth transferring the miles over to CX, if you guys think theres a chance of clearing waitlist. I could always just waitlist the HKG-NYC leg and book BKK-HKG on my own if this has a better chance? This would be for 2 tickets in Business or First on 3/22/20. (Not sure how to pull up the fare buckets). There are all the options that came up:

March 22, 2020
The best most of us could do is look up those flights using expertflyer (EF) and that's a huge list. If you're really looking for success in these bookings, I'd recommend you head on over to expertflyer.com, create an account for as little as $4.99 a month for 250 queries and you can query the flights yourself and track as you get closer to departure.

As an example, here's ticket availability for CX846 HKG-JFK on MAR 22 2020 - F5 A5 Z0 J9 C9 D9 I9 U W9 R9 E9 T4 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 N9 Q9 O9

The coding here is fare class code followed by number of tickets available with a max of 9. First class fare codes are F,A,Z. Business class J,C,D,I. Premium economy - W,R,E and the rest are economy.

First class award is fare class Z and this flight is currently showing no award (redemption) available. Unfortunately, for biz class there is no award class shown on EF. The best indicator is discounted business class, I. And this flight is showing at least 9 I class seats available - I9. In fact, all the flights from HKG - JFK/EWR are showing I9 on that date. A quick check of BKK-HKG flights on the same date shows a similar picture, biz class availability wide open, i.e. J9 C9 D9 I9

This is typical, as MAR 22 isn't a special day that I know of and being more than 3 months out, the flight is wide open. So why would a redemption not be available? Same reason as most of the other responses in this thread, it's too far out and CX hasn't released any award space. They're holding their cards, and looking to make revenue and awards get released closer to departure when the picture becomes clearer.

So if you're really determined to get an award on that date, the best approach is to waitlist the flight that makes the most sense for you, pay for EF and monitor the situation yourself. As you get closer to departure date, and if ticket availability on EF starts to narrow, make a decision about what you want to do which might involve choosing a different flight or if you really need to travel then buying a ticket outright. Don't be surprised that waitlist may expire and then it's a free for all, which involves checking daily right up until departure. As departure date closes in and there are unsold tickets, CX starts freeing up some award space. That's been the situation for a while now. You could also luck out and have award space open earlier and your waitlist is confirmed. Either way it's a crap shoot and if you've read this thread you can see how frustrating it has been for many to redeem awards.

For J (biz) class from HKG-NYC, I'd generally advise against CX899. The A350 has less J seats available and the flight tends to fill up, even on Sundays which I usually travel on CX899 when I return back to NY on an upgrade redemption. CX846 is slightly better chance as it's got more J seats, has F (first) if you want to try for that and it's the second afternoon flight after CX840 which is typically more crowded. Not too sure about CX888 since I never take that flight, but the stop in YVR makes it less desirable,
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