Flight Centre (only one travel agency, I know) reports a 40% drop in flight ticket sales to the U.S. for Feb. '25 compared to a year earlier.

https://globalnews.ca/news/11067586/...oonie-tariffs/

We'll know a lot more in coming months.

One data point: the US preclearance at YYZ T1 was empty when I was connecting there last Tuesday (March 11) around 11:00. Unusual, because I usually spend there between 15-30 minutes waiting. Always same time of the day, as I hate departing YXU on the first flight, so I'm using AC8256 that is scheduled to arrive to YYZ at 10:45.

Crossborder land crossings down by 500,000 in February. This amounts to a reduction year over year of 17.2%. It will be interesting if that decline sustains through the summer months.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cro...uary-1.7485695

Cross-border road trips are more spontaneous, easier (or largely free) to cancel, and of shorter duration vs. air trips (and given March is spring break), Summer is where it's going to get interesting. Seems that even transiting the U.S. is increasingly off the table.

I am seeing some odd fares, especially high on Air Canada so nearly full flights already for May?
For example, PHX-YYZ May 6-11 Base Economy:
Porter $325
Air Canada $940
Both on same page per Google flight and non-stop. Assume this is $CDN doesn't say but looking up from US

Or
Air Canada PHX non-stop $693
Air Canada with a stop in Denver just over 1 hour between flights $161
Again not sure if $US or $CDN but both would be the same currency. Our exchange rate is now about 0.70 CDN/USD

I have lots of FF miles on American
I would up booking American one-way Business class via ORD using 29k of 350k FF miles It leaves PHX at 5AM but can do this.
Return via Porter Business Class US$263 non-stop

I am in Florida now for a family function ( with 3 kids).
The invitation and reservations were done in January.
If it had been last month, we would not have come.
It will be a few months until the Canadian reaction trickles down.

I'm a regular reader of AeroRoutes and anytime there has been a recent posting about changes to a TB route, it has always been a reduction, reversal of a planned increased or a cancellation of a route. Examples:

Delta NS25 Minneapolis – Montreal Service Changes
WestJet Removes 2 US Routes in NS25
United NS25 Canada Service Changes – 23MAR25
Air Canada Cancels Vancouver – Washington Dulles in NS25
Porter Airlines NS25 US Service Changes – 23MAR25
WestJet April 2025 US Service Reductions

So yes, I definitely think that there is actual data to suggest that there are fewer passengers from Canada to the States or projected to be fewer passengers. I'd say something, but I don't want to be banished to OMNI/PR.

Based on my experience it took weeks not months. In late February, U.S. preclearance, Maple Leaf lounge and U.S. departure gates at Pearson T1 were packed and my Rouge flight to Tampa was full which is typical. In mid-March however, the preclearance hall was practically empty of passengers and the departure areas and lounges were half full at most. My flight at the same time and on the same day was no more than 2/3rds full. I fly this route regularly and it was the first time in recent memory that we weren't begged or alternately threatened to check carry on bags.

It was so quiet at T1 that for the first time ever I could walk to the counter and place my order at Tim Hortons without waiting in line.

Good point. For those seeing crowded airports and planes when heading southbound - are your fellow travellers predominantly outbound Canadians? Or returning Americans?

I'd also like to add that Canada is a big country. Lots of Americans (and other foreigners) go to Canada around this time of year for skiing. That often means advance planning, non-refundable accommodations, etc.

When you fly home from your Canada holiday, you probably aren't flying out of the Maritime or Prairie provinces - they're not close to the ski areas.

I think anecdotal evidence right now, particularly when ski season is still active, is probably very much province-dependent. I imagine YVR is busy and not with BC Canadians heading to the US for the spring.

March 2025 isn't over yet though.

That's considered in the data OAG analyzed:

Assuming that OAG's data is as solid as always, with a ~75% reduction in bookings, but only ~3% reduction in capacity, we're going to see a lot more transborder service changes yet.
In terms of new opportunities, do we have any data about Canadian consumer confidence in general - will people travel elsewhere (new opportunities), or not at all (stranded capacity)? Which airline will be the first to decide that the reduced demand is not temporary and make bold moves?

two implications
 

I saw this news story when it first broke. Since confirmed here in the NYT:

By Vjosa Isai and Christine Chung
Vjosa Isai reported from Toronto and Christine Chung from New York.

March 28, 2025
Airlines are having to revamp their plans ahead of the peak summer travel season as Canadians avoid trips to the United States amid an escalating trade war between the two neighbors.

A grass roots effort by Canadians to boycott all things American — from U.S. grocery products and alcohol to tourist hot spots — had already set off alarms across the United States travel industry, which warned of multibillion-dollar losses.[/quote]

[mod edit]

I foresee two broad implications of this trend:

1. less need for narrow body aircraft;
2. more opportunities for airlines operating out of Cdn. gateways to Australiasia, Europe. & South America.

Gift version of the NY Times article above. (Available for 30 days.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/w...e=articleShare