Fewer passengers to the U.S. from Canada?
 

Are you seeing evidence of Canadian travel boycotts to the U.S.? News media reports suggest anywhere from 20% to 40% of trips to the U.S. by Canadians have been canceled but I'm seeing no sign of it. On two recent trips south, the preclearance lines were busy as usual, departure gates and lounges post pre-clearance were typically crowded and my plane was full both ways. Are you seeing a difference?

(Note to moderators. If this has strayed too close to politics please feel free to move to OMNI PR.)

I would think it's too soon to tell. Not that many people are going to cancel planned trips and eat the cost of (most likely) non-refundable air tickets if not accommodation too.

From Reuters

https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/colum...aulk-us-travel

I hope at some point to actually see evidence of it when I travel to the U.S. So far not so much.

Too soon as there are the above-mentioned already-ticketed/planned trips to burn off.

I'm onboard 1644 (YYZ-MIA) right now and it's a full flight.

I'll be interested to see what the summer holds. (Where do Canadians traditionally vacation during the summer? Is the US a popular destination for summer travel?)

Two of us got $1,000 each on 3/7 heading from YYZ to ATL due to an oversold flight. No signs of any slowdown yet.

Keep in mind that full flights dont equal "business as usual". The CBC reports that transborder flight capacity for March is down significantly YOY. So while planes might be full, there are fewer of them going to the U.S.

The declining value of the Canadian dollar against the US (and various other world currencies) makes Canada more attractive as a travel destination. So it’s possible that some of the decline in outbound travel by Canadians will be replaced by inbound travel by Americans or others. In fact, one of the best moves for Canada and Canadians may be to encourage tourism. Hence, the planes may not be as empty or the prices as low as we’d like.

Strangely, statscan reported that foreign travel to Canada was down 9.9% in February 2025 fro a year earlier. Non-U.S. travellers was down by 16.8% (could be the student visa thing).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/s...ational_travel
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...50310d-eng.htm

Cross-border Canadian resident vehicular trips was also down 23.0%. Vehicular trips by U.S. residents was also down but nowhere near as much.

This isn't a good indication. As others have pointed out, airlines are cutting capacity. That can mean fewer flights, and/or it can mean downgauging flights that continue to operate, e.g. replacing a 738 with a 73G, a 321 with a 223, etc. Airlines always want to keep their planes full, so as demand adjusts, they'll adjust schedules.

Staffing will also be adjusted at the airport and at US CBP, CBSA, etc. They know the flight schedules and they have manifests in advance, so as passenger numbers go down, so will the number of people working. Barring the situation getting truly catastrophic, we're not going to see COVID-like empty terminals and staff sitting around with nothing to do because the very few flights that are going are only 10% full.

It's possible that cross-border air travel could drop 25% and be barely perceptible to passengers during their airport and in-flight experience.

Nashville media warns of impact of fewer Canadian travelers. They make up half of all international visitors to Nashville and there are several non stops from Canadian cities to Nashville added in the past few years.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/ca...are-from-there

We would sorely miss our northern neighbors.

In part, people are concerned about tariffs and wanting to avoid getting a 25% charge on their items.

One American told me she doesn't want to drive to Canada because she's worried her car will be vandalized out of spite for America.

That was in February before the tariffs came into effect? I was blissfully out of country (in the global south) so didnlt care or keep abreast.