Fewer passengers to the U.S. from Canada?
 

Are you seeing evidence of Canadian travel boycotts to the U.S.? News media reports suggest anywhere from 20% to 40% of trips to the U.S. by Canadians have been canceled but I'm seeing no sign of it. On two recent trips south, the preclearance lines were busy as usual, departure gates and lounges post pre-clearance were typically crowded and my plane was full both ways. Are you seeing a difference?

(Note to moderators. If this has strayed too close to politics please feel free to move to OMNI PR.)

I would think it's too soon to tell. Not that many people are going to cancel planned trips and eat the cost of (most likely) non-refundable air tickets if not accommodation too.

From Reuters

https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/colum...aulk-us-travel

I hope at some point to actually see evidence of it when I travel to the U.S. So far not so much.

Too soon as there are the above-mentioned already-ticketed/planned trips to burn off.

I'm onboard 1644 (YYZ-MIA) right now and it's a full flight.

I'll be interested to see what the summer holds. (Where do Canadians traditionally vacation during the summer? Is the US a popular destination for summer travel?)

Two of us got $1,000 each on 3/7 heading from YYZ to ATL due to an oversold flight. No signs of any slowdown yet.

Keep in mind that full flights dont equal "business as usual". The CBC reports that transborder flight capacity for March is down significantly YOY. So while planes might be full, there are fewer of them going to the U.S.

The declining value of the Canadian dollar against the US (and various other world currencies) makes Canada more attractive as a travel destination. So it’s possible that some of the decline in outbound travel by Canadians will be replaced by inbound travel by Americans or others. In fact, one of the best moves for Canada and Canadians may be to encourage tourism. Hence, the planes may not be as empty or the prices as low as we’d like.

Strangely, statscan reported that foreign travel to Canada was down 9.9% in February 2025 fro a year earlier. Non-U.S. travellers was down by 16.8% (could be the student visa thing).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/s...ational_travel
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...50310d-eng.htm

Cross-border Canadian resident vehicular trips was also down 23.0%. Vehicular trips by U.S. residents was also down but nowhere near as much.

This isn't a good indication. As others have pointed out, airlines are cutting capacity. That can mean fewer flights, and/or it can mean downgauging flights that continue to operate, e.g. replacing a 738 with a 73G, a 321 with a 223, etc. Airlines always want to keep their planes full, so as demand adjusts, they'll adjust schedules.

Staffing will also be adjusted at the airport and at US CBP, CBSA, etc. They know the flight schedules and they have manifests in advance, so as passenger numbers go down, so will the number of people working. Barring the situation getting truly catastrophic, we're not going to see COVID-like empty terminals and staff sitting around with nothing to do because the very few flights that are going are only 10% full.

It's possible that cross-border air travel could drop 25% and be barely perceptible to passengers during their airport and in-flight experience.

Nashville media warns of impact of fewer Canadian travelers. They make up half of all international visitors to Nashville and there are several non stops from Canadian cities to Nashville added in the past few years.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/ca...are-from-there

We would sorely miss our northern neighbors.

In part, people are concerned about tariffs and wanting to avoid getting a 25% charge on their items.

One American told me she doesn't want to drive to Canada because she's worried her car will be vandalized out of spite for America.

That was in February before the tariffs came into effect? I was blissfully out of country (in the global south) so didnlt care or keep abreast.

Flight Centre (only one travel agency, I know) reports a 40% drop in flight ticket sales to the U.S. for Feb. '25 compared to a year earlier.

https://globalnews.ca/news/11067586/...oonie-tariffs/

We'll know a lot more in coming months.

One data point: the US preclearance at YYZ T1 was empty when I was connecting there last Tuesday (March 11) around 11:00. Unusual, because I usually spend there between 15-30 minutes waiting. Always same time of the day, as I hate departing YXU on the first flight, so I'm using AC8256 that is scheduled to arrive to YYZ at 10:45.

Crossborder land crossings down by 500,000 in February. This amounts to a reduction year over year of 17.2%. It will be interesting if that decline sustains through the summer months.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cro...uary-1.7485695

Cross-border road trips are more spontaneous, easier (or largely free) to cancel, and of shorter duration vs. air trips (and given March is spring break), Summer is where it's going to get interesting. Seems that even transiting the U.S. is increasingly off the table.

I am seeing some odd fares, especially high on Air Canada so nearly full flights already for May?
For example, PHX-YYZ May 6-11 Base Economy:
Porter $325
Air Canada $940
Both on same page per Google flight and non-stop. Assume this is $CDN doesn't say but looking up from US

Or
Air Canada PHX non-stop $693
Air Canada with a stop in Denver just over 1 hour between flights $161
Again not sure if $US or $CDN but both would be the same currency. Our exchange rate is now about 0.70 CDN/USD

I have lots of FF miles on American
I would up booking American one-way Business class via ORD using 29k of 350k FF miles It leaves PHX at 5AM but can do this.
Return via Porter Business Class US$263 non-stop

I am in Florida now for a family function ( with 3 kids).
The invitation and reservations were done in January.
If it had been last month, we would not have come.
It will be a few months until the Canadian reaction trickles down.

I'm a regular reader of AeroRoutes and anytime there has been a recent posting about changes to a TB route, it has always been a reduction, reversal of a planned increased or a cancellation of a route. Examples:

Delta NS25 Minneapolis – Montreal Service Changes
WestJet Removes 2 US Routes in NS25
United NS25 Canada Service Changes – 23MAR25
Air Canada Cancels Vancouver – Washington Dulles in NS25
Porter Airlines NS25 US Service Changes – 23MAR25
WestJet April 2025 US Service Reductions

So yes, I definitely think that there is actual data to suggest that there are fewer passengers from Canada to the States or projected to be fewer passengers. I'd say something, but I don't want to be banished to OMNI/PR.

Based on my experience it took weeks not months. In late February, U.S. preclearance, Maple Leaf lounge and U.S. departure gates at Pearson T1 were packed and my Rouge flight to Tampa was full which is typical. In mid-March however, the preclearance hall was practically empty of passengers and the departure areas and lounges were half full at most. My flight at the same time and on the same day was no more than 2/3rds full. I fly this route regularly and it was the first time in recent memory that we weren't begged or alternately threatened to check carry on bags.

It was so quiet at T1 that for the first time ever I could walk to the counter and place my order at Tim Hortons without waiting in line.

Good point. For those seeing crowded airports and planes when heading southbound - are your fellow travellers predominantly outbound Canadians? Or returning Americans?

I'd also like to add that Canada is a big country. Lots of Americans (and other foreigners) go to Canada around this time of year for skiing. That often means advance planning, non-refundable accommodations, etc.

When you fly home from your Canada holiday, you probably aren't flying out of the Maritime or Prairie provinces - they're not close to the ski areas.

I think anecdotal evidence right now, particularly when ski season is still active, is probably very much province-dependent. I imagine YVR is busy and not with BC Canadians heading to the US for the spring.

March 2025 isn't over yet though.

That's considered in the data OAG analyzed:

Assuming that OAG's data is as solid as always, with a ~75% reduction in bookings, but only ~3% reduction in capacity, we're going to see a lot more transborder service changes yet.
In terms of new opportunities, do we have any data about Canadian consumer confidence in general - will people travel elsewhere (new opportunities), or not at all (stranded capacity)? Which airline will be the first to decide that the reduced demand is not temporary and make bold moves?

two implications
 

I saw this news story when it first broke. Since confirmed here in the NYT:

By Vjosa Isai and Christine Chung
Vjosa Isai reported from Toronto and Christine Chung from New York.

March 28, 2025
Airlines are having to revamp their plans ahead of the peak summer travel season as Canadians avoid trips to the United States amid an escalating trade war between the two neighbors.

A grass roots effort by Canadians to boycott all things American — from U.S. grocery products and alcohol to tourist hot spots — had already set off alarms across the United States travel industry, which warned of multibillion-dollar losses.[/quote]

[mod edit]

I foresee two broad implications of this trend:

1. less need for narrow body aircraft;
2. more opportunities for airlines operating out of Cdn. gateways to Australiasia, Europe. & South America.

Gift version of the NY Times article above. (Available for 30 days.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/w...e=articleShare

There may be drop in travel both directions. US travelers may worry of the welcome they receive in Canada. Any reports on that?

https://dailyhive.com/canada/canada-...ravel-decrease

There are initial signs. Americans are generally oblivious to the impact tariffs are having in other countries and the expanded anti-American sentiment created by their President's trade policies. They should not be surprised if they do not receive a warm welcome in Canada.

And now we have the election results. Wonder if that will calm or excite the situation regarding traveling both directions?

Since the issue wasn't with our government to begin with, I doubt it will make any difference.

Numbers for February. Drop is not just visitors from Canada.


U.S. Travel Trends February 2025: Visitor Arrivals Drop, Departures Rise - Focus on Travel News

I've seen some data that says it has continued into March.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...de-war-tourism

These numbers may be affected by Easter which was at the end of March last year vs. late April this year.

The key will be what the data for this summer is.

According to NYT:

“Visitors haven’t stopped booking summer vacations in the United States, either, with one major exception.

Canadians, angered by U.S. tariffs and Trump administration talk of turning their country into a 51st state, really do appear to be boycotting the United States. Ticket sales for travel in summer, a crucial season for the industry, are down 21 percent compared with last year.

The decline in Canadian travelers, who make up roughly a quarter of all foreign visitors, is enough by itself to threaten tourism-oriented businesses in Florida, New York, Maine and other popular destinations.”
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...4f154231f.jpeg

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...l-decline.html

The interesting aspect to this is the drop in commuter fares. The two Soos are relatively isolated from other population areas. Commuter fares are generally purchased by locals going back and forth to shop, dine in local restaurants, etc. A 30% drop will be rough on Sault Michigan.

https://www.saultstar.com/news/sault...mmets-in-april

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...outes?tbref=hp

Thank you for the updates. So I wonder Vancouver to Austin?? is it Canadians that are not visiting texas or texans not going to Vancouver.? Both? Currency could factor as well.

So where are the Canadians planning to visit? Where in Europe per Westjet?

lax-yyc and yvr i track have been 50-100 (ow) for months on ws including peak summer season and suddenly disappeared last weekend..