Bali - Volcano high risk
Dec 2, 2017, 2:48 am
#91
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: The Indo Jungle
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Posts: 1,319
The economic impact on Bali and their people has been huge ... over $100 million in lost tourist spending already from the volcano this year. Hard to judge the risk, but so far the disruption has been minimal with flight cnacellations being for only a few days. Worst case it could be another Krakatoa. Best case no further disruptions; both are unlikely.
Dec 2, 2017, 1:52 pm
#92
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CGK/LAX
Programs: KF,JMB, OZ, SPG,AA,UA,AS
Posts: 1,163
I would agree that it's likely larger as well. Without getting into too many details, the hospitality segment of the company I work for has experienced a significant decline in revenue in Bali over the past three months. Revenue has been flat and or up in other areas of Indonesia where we operate (East Java, West Java, Sumatra, and Sulawesi).
Jan 2, 2018, 1:08 pm
#94
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: ADL
Programs: QFF, AAdvantage, All
Posts: 1,137
Currently, the westerlies are predominant, which are fine for DPS airport. What you don't want are northerly and/or easterly winds, which are not common, but quite possible at this time of the year.
Jan 2, 2018, 7:49 pm
#95
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: The Indo Jungle
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire
Posts: 1,319
Jan 2, 2018, 10:08 pm
#96
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: London
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Don't for heaven's sake place your trust in opinions about this expressed in an online forum! Or indeed opinions emanating from Indonesia's tourism authority. Truth is, no-one knows. Weather we can forecast with varying degrees of accuracy: the movement of tectonic plates and the flow of magma tend to defeat predictions.
Of course, from a hundred predictions, one or two will be more or less in line with events. But that's serendipity, not evidence-based forecasting.
Jan 7, 2018, 10:08 am
#97
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
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Posts: 9,011
I have a trip here in late May for a wedding...it's in the southern part of Bali, which is further away from the volcano, so hopefully there are no issues with flying in. I booked with a revenue ticket to SIN on the way over and award tickets the rest of the way, so I will be very much up a creek if things go sideways when it comes to IRROPS...
Jan 7, 2018, 7:36 pm
#98
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: NYC
Posts: 427
I'm going there in April on SQ on nonrefundable J, but it sounds (from what they did in Nov) like if the airport is closed or the volcano becomes super active again, they'd be able to reschedule it for free. One of my stays there is at Amankila which is kinda close to the volcano region... fingers crossed!!
Jan 17, 2018, 10:14 pm
#101
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: EWR, SLC, SGN
Posts: 1,113
Obviously it could run the gambit. But focused on travel plans only and ignoring the possibility of potential physical harm, besides flight delays the one I would think of is if for some reason the Aman was involved in an evacuation zone. That would potentially be a huge hassle. Seems very low percentage of that happening though, since although on the side of the island kind of near Agung, it wasn't in any evac zone earlier this year AFAIK.
Jan 18, 2018, 3:56 am
#102
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Obviously it could run the gambit. But focused on travel plans only and ignoring the possibility of potential physical harm, besides flight delays the one I would think of is if for some reason the Aman was involved in an evacuation zone. That would potentially be a huge hassle. Seems very low percentage of that happening though, since although on the side of the island kind of near Agung, it wasn't in any evac zone earlier this year AFAIK.
Jan 18, 2018, 7:12 am
#103
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: EWR, SLC, SGN
Posts: 1,113
I mean I'm not saying it's likely - just saying you asked if any other risks besides flights and that's the only one I can think of for travel issues.
It's about 25 km almost due south of the volcano. It's closer to the mountain than Nusa Dua, the airport, and Kuta etc. by a decent amount. But it's still far enough away it's extremely unlikely to be in an evacuation zone IMO. It was not included in the evac zone a few months ago, afaik. So again, it's a very low probability, but the only one I can think of that might be troublesome besides the flight delays in your scenario.
It's about 25 km almost due south of the volcano. It's closer to the mountain than Nusa Dua, the airport, and Kuta etc. by a decent amount. But it's still far enough away it's extremely unlikely to be in an evacuation zone IMO. It was not included in the evac zone a few months ago, afaik. So again, it's a very low probability, but the only one I can think of that might be troublesome besides the flight delays in your scenario.
Jan 25, 2018, 12:53 pm
#105
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: North Sentinel Island
Programs: UA Gold, BONVOY TIT
Posts: 777
Planning to hit up Bali in late March/early April. I'm flying into CGK. In case the volcano starts volcano-ing again, does anyone have any alternate suggestions for a beach destination a reasonable distance from Jakarta? I'm 99% sure it won't be a problem but I'd like to have a backup plan just in case something happens and I'm unable to get to Bali.