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-   -   Chance of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2025 Master Thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/2186391-chance-upgrade-clearing-availability-2025-master-thread.html)

Low Clouds Oct 2, 2025 9:20 am


Originally Posted by thedeeg (Post 37349243)
I wish I could deduce some kind of trend on when SWU are released.

CLT - DUB 10/16 - 2 X SWU cleared with a smattering of J seats left (according to the seat map on AA).

DUB - CLT 10/19 - 2 x SWU waitlisted with 16 J seats left (according to the seat map on AA).

Same story on PHL - LIS 1/19 / LIS - PHL 1/25 at the start of the year 2026.

I gave up my Flyertalk membership when the AA inventory was having issues, so can’t check the fare buckets, so might be just a lot of sold seats who haven’t selected yet.

EF shows AA 725 on 10/19 as C7 J7. You might have a better chance now that we’re into October, but those Sunday flights can be a challenge. I had a DUB - CLT a couple weeks ago and ended up #1 on the list (SWU) with no luck; had to tough it out in PE :mad:…. Edited to add, as EXP with ~275K rolling LP.

thedeeg Oct 2, 2025 9:23 am


Originally Posted by Low Clouds (Post 37350845)
EF shows AA 725 on 10/19 as C7 J7. You might have a better chance now that we’re into October, but those Sunday flights can be a challenge. I had a DUB - CLT a couple weeks ago and ended up #1 on the list (SWU) with no luck; had to tough it out in PE :mad:….

Thank you for the check. I appreciate it.

JJeffrey Oct 2, 2025 9:25 am


Originally Posted by Low Clouds (Post 37350845)
EF shows AA 725 on 10/19 as C7 J7. You might have a better chance now that we’re into October, but those Sunday flights can be a challenge. I had a DUB - CLT a couple weeks ago and ended up #1 on the list (SWU) with no luck; had to tough it out in PE :mad:….

When searching EF correctly (Awards & Upgrades) DUB-CLT on 10/19 is C0.

Low Clouds Oct 2, 2025 9:30 am


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 37350859)
When searching EF correctly (Awards & Upgrades) DUB-CLT on 10/19 is C0.

Correct, I was assuming he or she was trying to quantify actual J seats available and not rely on AA seat map as data point vs. current upgradable C space.

JJeffrey Oct 2, 2025 9:40 am


Originally Posted by Low Clouds (Post 37350872)
Correct, I was assuming he or she was trying to quantify actual J seats available and not rely on AA seat map as data point vs. current upgradable C space.

I gotcha, but OP is trying to use SWU's to upgrade so saying the flight is C7 without much further context usually means someone is implying that upgrade space is available.

travelingdrsuz Oct 5, 2025 6:55 pm

Confirmed my SWU return from LHR-ORD-MCI today. Wide open space this morning. I had previously confirmed my outbound for late November (also the week they released space--in August). Because I am flying back after the holiday travel rush, I was confident the space would open. It's three months out and a lot of space did (meaning I had a bunch of choices that week and wanted the 789P of course). That said, I also lucked out because last week AA had a schedule change for my original route, compressing my 3 hour layover into 50 minutes at ORD. The system did NOT auto-rebook me (even Flightly assumed I was rebooked on the later flight). AA told me I had to call to rebook. So I decided to wait until SWU space showed up because I wanted to come back a day earlier than I booked and take the later flight.

It's just me and I rarely have more than 2 SWUs to apply for a RT when I do get them, so I don't pay for EP or anything. I simply look in my AA app every day when I am checking balances and such and would check this flight route/week daily until I saw the green check marks for both segments, then called. The flight is pricing at $4620 for that trip right now, so I'm staying in the "SWUs are worth it" camp! I am fortunate to have some flexibility and to routinely fly to LHR, as well as have the ability to position from multiple cities, though in this case I didn't need any positioning either.

Yank8823 Oct 6, 2025 9:28 pm

PLT with 100K Rolling LP

10/1 - PIT to DFW - 12/24, 1 cleared at gate
10/1 - DFW to LAS - 13/25, J fully booked
10/5 - LAS to DCA - 16/33, 1 cleared at gate
10/5 - DCA to PIT - 1/4, didn't cleat at gate (3 seats were "broken" in J and roped off)

lowkeyflyer Oct 7, 2025 12:24 pm


Originally Posted by Yank8823 (Post 37358595)
PLT with 100K Rolling LP

10/1 - PIT to DFW - 12/24, 1 cleared at gate
10/1 - DFW to LAS - 19/29, 13/25, J fully booked
10/5 - LAS to DCA - 16/33, 1 cleared at gate
10/5 - DCA to PIT - 1/4, didn't cleat at gate (3 seats were "broken" in J and roped off)

This is either a lie or you need to go buy a lotto ticket immediately

Antarius Oct 7, 2025 1:05 pm


Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 37359684)
This is either a lie or you need to go buy a lotto ticket immediately

Why? They went 0/4

My recent data points (EXP with ~ 260k rolling LPs)
9/22 - IAH-CLT - Cleared 2 pax at T26.5
9/26 - CLT-IAH - Cleared 2 pax at T100.

Flown a decent amount of UA recently. They are selling J at less than the cost of a seat + bag a lot. Been nabbing that for shorter/direct flights.

ConstellationClass Oct 8, 2025 3:51 am


Originally Posted by Antarius (Post 37359771)
Flown a decent amount of UA recently. They are selling J at less than the cost of a seat + bag a lot. Been nabbing that for shorter/direct flights.

Have been seeing a bit of this on AA too, lately, especially on short regional flights to/from DCA. Have been booking it for some non-status relatives who also don't have a cAArd for free bAAggage.

lowkeyflyer Oct 8, 2025 7:29 am


Originally Posted by Antarius (Post 37359771)
Why? They went 0/4

My recent data points (EXP with ~ 260k rolling LPs)
9/22 - IAH-CLT - Cleared 2 pax at T26.5
9/26 - CLT-IAH - Cleared 2 pax at T100.

Flown a decent amount of UA recently. They are selling J at less than the cost of a seat + bag a lot. Been nabbing that for shorter/direct flights.

It read to me like they went 2/4.

They said PIT-DFW and LAS/DCA 1 (they) cleared at gate

DFW-LAS fully booked
DCA-IT (this is the clue as they said didn't clear at gate)

JJeffrey Oct 8, 2025 7:42 am


Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 37361114)
It read to me like they went 2/4.

They said PIT-DFW and LAS/DCA 1 (they) cleared at gate

DFW-LAS fully booked
DCA-IT (this is the clue as they said didn't clear at gate)

They were saying that on PIT-DFW they were #12 out of 24 on the list and one person cleared at the gate, presumably whoever #1 was. Ditto for LAS-DCA, they were #16 on the list out of 33, etc. On DCA-PIT they were #1 on the list but no one cleared at the gate due to broken seats.

EXP100 Oct 8, 2025 8:25 am

Yesterday 3 page upgrade list for MIA.SFO 738Max. I saw one cleared.

dandarc Oct 8, 2025 10:01 am

T-26 upgrade confirmed for CLT -> DTW tomorrow.

EP with ~388k rolling LP

lowkeyflyer Oct 8, 2025 11:15 am


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 37361136)
They were saying that on PIT-DFW they were #12 out of 24 on the list and one person cleared at the gate, presumably whoever #1 was. Ditto for LAS-DCA, they were #16 on the list out of 33, etc. On DCA-PIT they were #1 on the list but no one cleared at the gate due to broken seats.

Facepalm.

total brainfart. Glazed over it

dunno how I missed that, thanks.


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