Not sure your point, and I'm traveling for work so its the flight I need on the day I need it, but I will take the bait: it was about $1100 round-trip in main cabin.

Flying JFK-AUS on Feb 21. Its already past T-48 hrs and aa.com shows 5 seats available for purchase in first, but I haven't received auto-upgrade.
I have Platinum status (via status match). only 3 MCE seats are occupied on the seat chart. My ticket was an aadvantage redemption. Should I expect to be upgraded?

Never look at the seat map, use Expert Flyer.

As a PLT you can be upgraded at any point between T-48 right up to the gate. With 5 seats still open and traveling midweek in February I'd say your chances are decent, but I wouldn't go so far as to say you should expect it. There can still be people ahead of you on the list with higher status, last minute sales and buy-up's, etc.

No luck PHX-JFK
 

PHX-JFK (flight 1388 operated on B777) President’s Day:
#9 on upgrade list for 1 seat.

I am surprised as 4 biz seats were available for sale on EF the day before.

EXP ~250k

So you didn't get upgraded to a J seat?

I'm sad to see this aircraft going away next week.

Generally AA will process upgrades at the window when more than 7 F seats are available. Then nothing until about T-26 when they will fill all but the last 4 seats with upgrades. Then sometime around T-5 they will fill all but one seat with upgrades. That's been the basic pattern for as long as I have been EXP (over 10 years). Given that MCE is lightly loaded there is a small chance you'll get the upgrade at T-26, in time to pre-order your meal. More likely you'll get it a few hours before departure.

I always look at the seat map on AA.com or the app as it is more convenient. EF may reveal a few seats that are blocked as opposed to occupied, but never in domestic first class.

Well said. People are living in the past. The game has changed (significantly). Either keep up or get out!

It's a very derogatory term, IMO. Might have been funny a few years ago, but it's the reality. The days of EXPs being seasoned travelers and know the ins and outs better than most AA employees are long over. If you want a seat in FC, better buy it. And stop shaming the people who do.

Ma and Pa Kettle dates back to the 1940s and 1950s. Its creative borrowing and usage on flyertalk to mean an analogous unsophisticated or unseasoned traveler goes way back in time, but not to the 1950s haha).

If you're booking a flight within your confirmation window that show's seats available on expertflyer, how long should you wait to see if the upgrade clears?

I.e. I might cancel the booking and fy another carrier for cheaper if the upgrade *doesn't* clear, ideally within 24 hours so its an easy free straight up cancellation

I was under the impression that only EXPs are eligible to get upgraded on award redemption tickets.

All status levels are now. https://www.aa.com/i18n/aadvantage-p...y-upgrades.jsp

I saw it used bt someone on FT, it's the people who fly Coach.

If you're talking about C upgrade inventory on expertflyer, for a domestic flight the comp upgrade inventory is not the same as the C (SWU) upgrade inventory (had an agent tell me that - they can't see comp upgrade inventory). Long way of saying there's no way to tell. If there is comp upgrade inventory open and you're within your window when you book, in my experience the upgrade has come through within a few minutes after ticketing.