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-   -   Chance of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2023 Master Thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/2106380-chance-upgrade-clearing-availability-2023-master-thread.html)

ChillyDawg Jan 19, 2023 6:24 pm


Originally Posted by metallo (Post 34936605)
A clear pattern on many (not all) domestic flights is that the J cabin will be cleared down as far as J4 once complimentary upgrade windows open. In other words, if a flight is J5 or more, there's a decent chance of an upgrade at the window if you have a high number of loyalty points within your elite tier. After that, AA typically clears the flight down to J1 just before T-24h. If a flight goes from J4 to J6 within the elite upgrade windows (because two seats opened up due to a cancellation, for example), the next time the system completes an upgrade sweep, two passengers will be upgraded off the list, and the inventory will go back to J4.

This has been a fairly reliable pattern for the past couple of years, except on certain routes where they expect last minute sales or want to hold back seats for other reasons. It's fairly rare to get a complimentary upgrade until almost T-24h when there are 4 or fewer seats remaining in J.

This definitely held for AA 1592 for Monday LAS -> AUS. Plenty of J (was like J15 by the seatmap) and got upgraded right at T-100. Still J7+ on EF, I assume it'll keep filling up for everyone else. You rock!!

EXP100 Jan 20, 2023 6:32 am

This week, EXP with 209K LPs. Wednesday MIA/CLT, number one no one cleared 738, CLT/DFW cleared T-100 but 72 names on the list, don't think anyone cleared 321 ceo, Thursday DFW/MIA number 9 on a list of over 60 names, 2 paxs cleared, 321neo.

ISUSEADSM Jan 20, 2023 12:24 pm

Interesting data point on Thursday afternoon, 737-8 FAT-DFW. According to the standby waitlist there were 70 available seats on a 172-seat aircraft. I believed that number, there were many rows with only one or two people. Despite all the open seats, First was full at T-24 (according to the seatmap) and no one cleared according to the Upgrade waitlist at boarding (17 people). Just thought it was interesting to have that empty of a flight with no upgrades available out of 16 seats.

Another odd thing, as a PPro with autorequested upgrades, I was not on the upgrade list. My upgrade cleared > T-24 on the next segment, just not sure why I wasn't on the list for that first segment. I wasn't going to bother the GA with it since I knew first was full but I'll be sure to keep an eye on it in the future.

lowkeyflyer Jan 20, 2023 1:00 pm

Wasn't sure what other thread to ask this question in so please redirect me if there is a more appropriate thread.

I am a newly Hyatt-matched Plat Pro. I heard something about Plat Pro+ can same-day change their flight for free to another flight. So say for example that I am flying LAX-JFK on June 30. The morning flight is expensive (example let's say $500). The red-eye is cheaper (let's say $100). I have heard that I can buy the red eye in advance, then on the actual day of June 30, I can same-day change it over to the morning flight without having to pay the $400 difference.

Is this possible? What are some special considerations I have to make?

RogueFlyerOne Jan 20, 2023 1:16 pm

Free flight change.
 

Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 34942544)
Wasn't sure what other thread to ask this question in so please redirect me if there is a more appropriate thread.

I am a newly Hyatt-matched Plat Pro. I heard something about Plat Pro+ can same-day change their flight for free to another flight. So say for example that I am flying LAX-JFK on June 30. The morning flight is expensive (example let's say $500). The red-eye is cheaper (let's say $100). I have heard that I can buy the red eye in advance, then on the actual day of June 30, I can same-day change it over to the morning flight without having to pay the $400 difference.

Is this possible? What are some special considerations I have to make?

sorry to say, the CHANGE would be free. You would still be responsible for the difference in fares. So in that case you’d pay $400 or more ( especially at last minute fares). Of course I have had the other happen and received a flight credit as the price difference was in my favor.

FlyFreakquently Jan 20, 2023 2:01 pm


Originally Posted by RogueFlyerOne (Post 34942598)
sorry to say, the CHANGE would be free. You would still be responsible for the difference in fares. So in that case you’d pay $400 or more ( especially at last minute fares). Of course I have had the other happen and received a flight credit as the price difference was in my favor.

OP was referring to a same-day flight change, which IS free.

lowkeyflyer Jan 20, 2023 2:39 pm


Originally Posted by FlyFreakquently (Post 34942706)
OP was referring to a same-day flight change, which IS free.

So how exactly does this work and what's the best way to utilize it?

FlyFreakquently Jan 20, 2023 8:18 pm


Originally Posted by metallo (Post 34936605)
A clear pattern on many (not all) domestic flights is that the J cabin will be cleared down as far as J4 once complimentary upgrade windows open. In other words, if a flight is J5 or more, there's a decent chance of an upgrade at the window if you have a high number of loyalty points within your elite tier. After that, AA typically clears the flight down to J1 just before T-24h. If a flight goes from J4 to J6 within the elite upgrade windows (because two seats opened up due to a cancellation, for example), the next time the system completes an upgrade sweep, two passengers will be upgraded off the list, and the inventory will go back to J4.

This has been a fairly reliable pattern for the past couple of years, except on certain routes where they expect last minute sales or want to hold back seats for other reasons. It's fairly rare to get a complimentary upgrade until almost T-24h when there are 4 or fewer seats remaining in J.

This pattern has certainly held for me, at least. Flying PHL-BOS tomorrow. At T-100, 4 pax cleared into first. Since then, not a single pax has cleared. The flight has remained J4 since T-100. Interestingly, my upgrade offer (not like I’d take it at $205) has been gone since T-60. Hopefully this clears, but we are at T-15 now so no clue what is going to happen.

redtop43 Jan 20, 2023 9:36 pm


Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 34942787)
So how exactly does this work and what's the best way to utilize it?

I forget which perks come with which status, but I can say this: If you are booked on a flight on November 31, and you want to take a different flight on November 31 with the same origin, destination, and routing, you can change to that flight no more than 24 hours before the departure of the new flight. Space has to be available but I don't think there has to be space in the fare bucket you purchased.

So if you are flying from ABC to XYZ at 11PM on November 31, and there is an empty seat on a 7AM departure, you can make a free change if space is available starting at 7AM on November 30. You will of course be limited to the seats available and you'll lose an upgrade if you had one, but you can get on the upgrade list for the new flight.

It's a little murkier if, for example, you are flying at 12:30AM on the 31st and want to change to a flight on the 30th. It's effectively a red-eye departing late the night of the 30th, and sometimes they will treat it like a flight on the 30th and let you change to a flight on the 30th.

RichieMc Jan 21, 2023 2:36 am

If you’re booked on a flight departing November 31st, you’ve got other things to worry about besides upgrades!!

FlyFreakquently Jan 21, 2023 4:56 am

Platinum Pro, 139k LPs

1/21 PHL-BOS (A320): Cleared at T-8.5 despite being J4 for almost 90 hours. One on list for no seats.
1/21 BOS-LAX (A321T): Cleared at T-72, one on list for 1 seat.

newsmanhoss Jan 21, 2023 9:39 am

I been looking all over, but can't find any information on the order in which non-status companions clear.

I'm Plat, and my partner is traveling on the same itinerary. She is an AAdvantage member, but has no status. Would my companion's upgrade clear with me in the Plat group, or would we both get cleared at the end if there is any space left after all of the solo elites clear?

Thanks in advance.

lowkeyflyer Jan 21, 2023 9:55 am

DP:

SNA->JFK AA 933 Jan 21 2023 8 open seats in J with 0 waitlist

Fluff Ermine Jan 21, 2023 2:52 pm


Originally Posted by lowkeyflyer (Post 34944519)
DP:

SNA->JFK AA 933 Jan 21 2023 8 open seats in J with 0 waitlist

Pre-clear or upgrade at gate?

lowkeyflyer Jan 21, 2023 2:54 pm

I'm not on the flight, just woke up and checked the flight status


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