When a flight is T-8hrs, the waitlist opens to the public (T-12hrs is you're actually on the flight). What this allows you to do is look at the number of people waiting for an upgrade. In this case on Flagship Transcons, it will be the business class waitlist. To get a sense of my upgrade chances, I will look at the waitlist for flights I am on a few weeks ahead. I have found that this, along with a look at F loads upon booking and number of MCE seats selected, to be an extremely accurate way to evaluate my chances at an upgrade.

I'm not sure that I follow. When you say "I will look at the waitlist for flights I am on a few weeks ahead", do you mean something like this?

Example: you booked a flight for Tuesday Feb 21 LAX-JFK. Therefore you somehow look at waitlists for flights on Tuesday Feb 7 and Tuesday Feb 14

Exactly. Let's say I'm flying AA 2453 (LAX-BOS redeye) on February 10th. I will look at the waitlist for AA 2453 on Feb 3rd, Jan 27th, etc. By doing this, I can pretty much guess how long the waitlist will be when I am flying.

Where do you view the waitlists?

Edit: and also why do the waitlists matter? As in what do you get out of knowing how long the waitlist will be when you fly?

Plat w/ ~49k LPs [likely to drop to Gold but we shall see...]
Likely done flying for January, but managed to go 3/4 with upgrades.

Wednesday, January 4th, last flight of the evening, PIT-ORD: Upgraded ~T-24hrs
Wednesday, January 4th, last flight of the evening, ORD-PHX: Missed upgrade; #2 of 8 on upgrade list only 1 cleared
Saturday, January 14th, PHX-ORD: Upgraded ~T-24hrs; same day confirmed from afternoon flight to the first flight of the day
Monday, January 16th, ORD-PHX: Upgraded ~T-48hrs; same day confirmed from last flight of the evening to an afternoon flight. There were 37 people on the upgrade list, no way I would have ever cleared if this were my originally booked flight. I don't believe any of them cleared before takeoff.

Go on the AA app and click status. Then look up the route (which will show all flights flying that route that day) or the flight number. If it's within 8 hours of the flight, then you will be able to view the waitlist.

Waitlists matter because those are the people who did not clear an upgrade. It allows me to get a sense of how competitive upgrades are for this flight on this day. For example, if I need to be in Southeast Florida in March and I'm flying from LAX, I have a few options. I can take a LAX-MIA direct flight, which would be incredibly hard to get upgraded on with waitlists routinely in the 30s and 40s. I could connect in CLT, which would have tough upgrades on both legs (which I know based on waitlists). Or I could connect in Orlando on the LAX-MCO redeye and get to MIA just half an hour later than if I took the direct. This exact scenario played out a few months ago. I looked at Monday night LAX-MCO waitlists, as well as MCO-MIA waitlists on Tuesday morning, and deduced that this routing would give me the best chances at an upgrade. Sure enough, I cleared both segments at the Plat window.

Another example: Flying back to the East Coast from Baton Rouge, I had a few choices. I could either connect via CLT or DFW, but chose DFW because I prefer the airport and don't care about travel time. I began looking at the waitlist after booking and noticed that the 5pm flight to PHL was going out with many fewer on the waitlist than other afternoon flights. I switched to the 5pm from the 3pm for no cost a few weeks prior to the flight and again, I cleared at the Plat Pro window. The 5pm had about 12 on the list, where as the 3pm had over 20.

I hope this makes sense. Although it is not a perfect science, I cleared on over 70% of my 2022 flights as a Platinum by using this method. Let me know if you have any more questions.

I'm assuming that most people on the waitlist are Gold and Plat right? If so, what percentage would you estimate are usually Plat Pros?

Edit: also, does that mean that the only window to view a waitlist is specifically in that 8 hour window?

Yes, you can't see the waitlist until 8 hours before flight. And no, it's not a foregone conclusion that people on the waitlist are mostly gold/plat. That list can also change right up to the boarding time if, for example, a higher ranking elite is displaced/misconnected and is moved to it. There are more than enough stories of ExPlats being 10 out of 40 and not making the upgrade. AA is aggressively selling upgrades in the app/online at any time prior to flight starting with the moment someone books a ticket, even if it's months in advance. It's evident that this is working for AA and changing the entire comp upgrade model to the detriment of long time elites who routinely did get those upgrades. Pay or play....

ExpertFlyer, as mentioned above, is your best source for loads rather than seat maps.

To confirm, your saying that your complimentary upgrade on your original flight (Monday, January 16th, ORD-PHX: Upgraded ~T-48hrs), stayed in place when you did same day confirmed change? Didn’t know that was the case, thanks for sharing. Or did you get another comp upgrade for the new earlier flight based on status rank? I was under the impression that when you change flights you lose the comp upgrade. Thanks!

How to see upgrade offers
 

Please pardon my newbie question - in the summary, it mentions upgrades via "flights offering upgrades using only instruments"

Where and when does AA offer upgrades that I can 'use only instruments' to buy? (assuming either fully paid or cash+miles). I have a flight coming up in 10 days and aren't seeing any upgrade options for the international portion of my trip, other than requested complimentary domestic upgrades on the first leg. Or are international upgrades not possible by cash or cash+miles at all?

For extra info, I have AA Platinum

You can call and ask for the upgrade on the international leg. Likely you will be waitlisted and your priority will be based on your status as listed in the Wiki at the top of this thread.. The amount of points + cash you have to pay is depending on where you're flying. USA to Europe, for example is 25,000 points + $350 each way. No copay if you are on a fully refundable unrestricted coach ticket.

https://www.aa.com/i18n/aadvantage-p...with-miles.jsp

You have to call AA to apply a miles/copay upgrade, you cannot do this online.

In my experience MCO as a connection point is golden for upgrades, skews very heavily leisure basic economy traveller. I'm finding BNA to be similar for east coast hops, albeit little to no mainline flights so no substantive food if you do get upgraded.

Could not agree more. While I would love to sit in a lie-flat and use the Flagship Lounge in Miami, I know that those seats sell out well before upgrades even begin getting processed and I'm not too keen on sitting in a domestic recliner and having one drink service and a biscoff to tide me over for 5 and a half hours.

PHL-CUN AA805 on 2/17 upgrade with miles+$$
 

I understand the order in which upgrades clear for complimentary upgrades, but it is unclear to me when in the pecking order an upgrade using miles would clear. I am only Gold so not high in the priority. I picked this flight because it is on a 787 vs a typical narrow body for this flight and was hoping for an upgrade to a legit J product. If I am reading it right Expert Flyer is showing 10 open seats in J as of today. There are two travelers on the PNR.

When will my upgrade clear if available?
What are my odds of 2 upgrades clearing for me?

Thanks!