Has it become more like this lately? I’ve flown this route maybe 10 times a year for the last couple years and have been upgraded much faster with leas than half the space.

OK. DCA-ORD finally cleared at T-45 minutes. ORD-DCA cleared at T-72 which was a good thing as a 2 hour blocked trip turned into 7 hours (sat on the ground at ORD for 1:20 after being 30 minutes late off the gate), was on final approach to DCA and had our approach cancelled forcing us to divert to PHL for fuel, 2 hour refueling procedure at PHL, and a 25 minute flight from PHL to DCA.

Yes this is the new norm. AA will attempt to sell an F seat with app $$ before upgrading an elite. For example both Tpa-Mia Friday and Mia-Tpa today 5 days ago had 75% F open and it dwindled down to 0 seats available day of departure. I was #1 on both lists for 0 seats.
Upgrades still happen of course but nothing like last year. 8ACDF are my seats of choice in Y but now booking 3 weeks + out they seem to be already taken.

Is what it is!

Wow that really is a change! Well thanks for the explanations and I’ll cross my fingers.

What's the best route to find A space to LHR from the states?

I am looking at flights on a Thursday or Friday in March to LHR, preferably from the eastern half of the country (I'm flexible on departure airport as well). I'd like to buy J and then try to find A space to use my SWU, though I'm also open to buying J on one of the BA flights that has award availability in first and using it that way, so will be looking into that this week too. Would prefer to not fly from the Northeast as they're very short flights!

I'm flying a 772 from dfw-lax tomorrow. I'm lucky enough to have scored a PE seat gratis. I am looking forward to seeing how long that upgrade list to J will be tomorrow. There are currently 2 open seats up front. If I'm in the top 10 I'll be amazed (350K rolling LP's). :D

Currently /newly AA plat:
pretty happy/surprised two days ago, at T-48, got cleared for upgrade to first class from IAH - ORD (with flight after that to Europe for vacation).

Seems maybe were not a lot of filled first class seats because I had an option of like 10 seats to switch to after I got upgrade and managed my flight.
also weirdly enough(?)- the upgrade email notification said I got put into business class, but the online seat change/flight manager showed I was in first class.

PPro with 51k LPs this cycle.

7/13/23 PHL-BOS AA1856: Cleared at T-11. 14 on list, 0 cleared

7/16/23 BOS-PHL AA1511: Was 1 and 2 for 0 seats in the morning, then 2 and 3 for what alternated between 1 and 3 seats the remainder of the afternoon until this flight was cancelled at 6:30pm.

7/17/23 BOS-PHL AA1185: Noticed this flight was delayed 3 hrs and had 60 open seats according to the app (probably people who bailed when it became delayed). Was able to switch onto this and ended up at 2 and 3 on the waitlist for 10 seats. Cleared at the gate.

07/17/23 - AA25 - CDG-DFW - #1 on list - didn’t clear. 0 seats available.

Depends on how your Gold numbers compare to the other group 4 hoi polloi. But I'd say 50 percent chance. I honestly don't see how it makes much of a difference as MCE on the 175 is pretty nice, especially if you have an empty seat open next to you.

Did you use SWU or miles upgrade? Did you get upgraded to PE instead?

Therein lies the problem. I did not reach Gold organically (but rather from the Hyatt status pass challenge) so I'm probably the lowest on the totem pole for LPs. I guess I'll be keeping an eye out on how much they want for an upgrade, and I'll definitely be planning on sitting in MCE, hopefully with the seat next to me empty!

07/19 - AA429 - DFW-DCA - T-42 minutes before departure

They seem to be running a lot of A319s on DCA-ORD-DCA which is kind of annoying. I always found the 738s a mostly solid upgrade bet as a PL. Pouring one out for the days when this was an exception route with full meal service, those were the days!

Fellow PLAT who frequents this route and same! Thankfully they seem to alternate equipment throughout the day so I've started just booking the 738 frequency that's nearest to when I actually want to fly, even if the A319 frequency is a bit nearer.