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-   -   Chance of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2023 Master Thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/2106380-chance-upgrade-clearing-availability-2023-master-thread.html)

Rhomboid Jul 19, 2023 1:33 pm

How would SWU/Miles+copay upgrade works with a party of 2 (same PNR) when only 1 space is released at a time?

Do we get skipped, or does one of us get the upgrade? In this case, do I also split and link the PNR like complimentary upgrades?

FlyFreakquently Jul 19, 2023 5:44 pm


Originally Posted by enviroian (Post 35421289)
I'm flying a 772 from dfw-lax tomorrow. I'm lucky enough to have scored a PE seat gratis. I am looking forward to seeing how long that upgrade list to J will be tomorrow. There are currently 2 open seats up front. If I'm in the top 10 I'll be amazed (350K rolling LP's). :D

Sooo...did you crack the top 10? :)

EXP100 Jul 20, 2023 7:42 am

I've been 100% with upgrades over the past 3 months although in a few situations I bought F outright or a couple times paid for the upgrade. Since I have flexibility in time I can sometimes play the system. For example, yesterday I had an ORD/MIA flight in which upgrades didn't seem likely. So for $56 I switched to ORD/DCA/MIA where F was wide open and of course the upfare (as small as it is) counts towards LP. Now I understand some people would never purposely take a connection or have the time to hang out in the DCA AC for 90 minutes.

WalruSara Jul 20, 2023 2:29 pm

07/20 - DCA-DFW - DNC #5 on list (215k LPs)
07/20 - DFW-IAH - cleared at T-24h
07/21 - IAH-DFW - cleared at T-48h

enviroian Jul 20, 2023 2:36 pm


Originally Posted by FlyFreakquently (Post 35428098)
Sooo...did you crack the top 10? :)

I had to cancel the trip. I was in Cancun last weekend and came down with Montezuma's Revenge. :rolleyes: I couldn't think of something more horrible of being a mid con with this kicking in.

For what it's worth I did check the list at 6 am and if memory serves I was 7 out of 50 for 1 seat.

FlyFreakquently Jul 20, 2023 3:15 pm


Originally Posted by enviroian (Post 35430639)
I had to cancel the trip. I was in Cancun last weekend and came down with Montezuma's Revenge. :rolleyes: I couldn't think of something more horrible of being a mid con with this kicking in.

For what it's worth I did check the list at 6 am and if memory serves I was 7 out of 50 for 1 seat.

Hope you feel better, but hey, top 10 is a win!

ryanbriar Jul 20, 2023 3:49 pm

A few data points from last week based on rolling LPs of ~630k.

DFW-BOS 7/13 last flight out: Ended up canceling, but cleared at the window, which was surprising for a Thursday night flight. List was 10+ when I checked (J5 one week out).

DFW-BOS 7/14 mid-evening: Cleared at T-26 despite being J7 with nine open seats and offers at $194. Not sure what was going on, but this has been happening more as of late. One cleared and ~10 on the list.

ORD-HPN 7/18 Evening: Missed! Was 2 of 12 with zero open seats (was J0 a week out and nothing opened up). Set up an EF alert on seats and J to see if something up so I could check the app for offers (outbound was $94 for a single A row seat). Row 4 on the CR7 was fine.

123steve Jul 20, 2023 4:53 pm

Flying MIA-AUS and back in a little over a month. The flight there on a 737 shows a 100% open F cabin (w/6 C seats per ExpertFlyer) and the return on an E175 has all but two seats open (w/4 C seats). App selling the upgrades for $146 each leg.

I'm a lowly AA Gold with ~43K in trailing 12-month LPs (earned the hard way, paying cold hard cash for flights!) at the time of flight. I've also been able to catch an upgrade about 90% of the time when the in-app offers dip below $150 at any point.

I'm foolish for even considering paying for it and I should definitely wait to get the free bump, right??

ryanbriar Jul 21, 2023 1:45 am


Originally Posted by 123steve (Post 35430920)
Flying MIA-AUS and back in a little over a month. The flight there on a 737 shows a 100% open F cabin (w/6 C seats per ExpertFlyer) and the return on an E175 has all but two seats open (w/4 C seats). App selling the upgrades for $146 each leg.

I'm a lowly AA Gold with ~43K in trailing 12-month LPs (earned the hard way, paying cold hard cash for flights!) at the time of flight. I've also been able to catch an upgrade about 90% of the time when the in-app offers dip below $150 at any point.

I'm foolish for even considering paying for it and I should definitely wait to get the free bump, right??

Given that you’re a month out, I wouldn’t be surprised if those seats largely fill up when you get closer to departure. I’d wait and see what happens unless you want to lock in your seat now (look at the up-fare price so you can at least net LPs).

ghsbass0406 Jul 21, 2023 2:10 am


Originally Posted by 123steve (Post 35430920)
Flying MIA-AUS and back in a little over a month. The flight there on a 737 shows a 100% open F cabin (w/6 C seats per ExpertFlyer) and the return on an E175 has all but two seats open (w/4 C seats). App selling the upgrades for $146 each leg.

I'm a lowly AA Gold with ~43K in trailing 12-month LPs (earned the hard way, paying cold hard cash for flights!) at the time of flight. I've also been able to catch an upgrade about 90% of the time when the in-app offers dip below $150 at any point.

I'm foolish for even considering paying for it and I should definitely wait to get the free bump, right??

Complimentary domestic upgrades book into R not C, just FYI. But Expert Flyer doesn't show R class upgrades, just R fare class. Is your 90% figure on this route in particular? You're flying to / from a hub, a status heavy one at that, so I doubt you'll clear as a Gold, but maybe I'm just jaded since I'm EXP and clear less than half the time out of DFW.

JJ804 Jul 26, 2023 8:22 am


Originally Posted by dml105 (Post 35403089)
Trying again:

What gives better odds for an upgrade on DCA-LAX for a PlatPro or EP? AA metal or AS metal? (~220k rolling LPs) If this isn't the right thread, please let me know.

Thanks!

I suspect your odds are better on AS due to lack of AS elites on the East Coast, but it can depend somewhat on plane type. My wife was upgraded on this route a few months ago (I think she was either Plat or PlatPro) and I was recently upgraded as AA Gold on AS LAX-EWR and back (I have a post on this with replies over in the forum about AA elite experiences on AS). That was on an A321 with 4 rows of F. I'm flying AS DCA-LAX soon on a 738 with only 3 rows of F.

JJ804 Jul 26, 2023 8:25 am

SMF-LAX, Monday afternoon on the CRJ-700. As a Gold, I was 3rd of 4 for 0 seats. Upgrades were sold for $54 leading up to the flight.

Munaf Nasser Jul 26, 2023 10:39 am

Definitely a bit of a risk there but like someone mentioned it's a privilege but hope it works out in the future

Munaf Nasser Jul 26, 2023 10:45 am

Definitely a bit of a risk there but like someone mentioned it's a privilege but hope it works out in the future

Flying for Fun Jul 26, 2023 10:50 am


Originally Posted by JJ804 (Post 35445737)
I suspect your odds are better on AS due to lack of AS elites on the East Coast, but it can depend somewhat on plane type. My wife was upgraded on this route a few months ago (I think she was either Plat or PlatPro) and I was recently upgraded as AA Gold on AS LAX-EWR and back (I have a post on this with replies over in the forum about AA elite experiences on AS). That was on an A321 with 5 rows of F. I'm flying AS DCA-LAX soon on a 738 with only 3 rows of F.

AS F on the A321 is 4 rows, 16 seats. 738 has 3 rows, 739 has 4 rows. Pitch 41" The A321s won't be around much longer.

James


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