As a gold was number 27 on the upgrade list for SFO PHX yesterday. No one cleared. Think I’ll just use my AMEX plat credits for MCE (the only seat left was middle so I stuck with aisle) and ignore chasing status. Few weeks ago similar situation PHX LAS.

Why would they give away all the F seats this early if they don't have to? Maybe they can sell some. Maybe some revenue F pax will misconnect.

It is very possible that there are PPro's and even EXP's ahead of you who haven't cleared.

Complimentary upgrades are in the R fare class but my understanding is that it's a different R class than you see on EF.

Complimentary upgrades are basically a deep dark secret, and the only thing at all certain is that they go to higher elites before lower.

As has been noted, the new change will make it harder for Golds and Plats to get upgraded. You'll always be behind the PPros and EXP's. But in the past,any Plats who didn't sign up for "paid" upgrades ("paid" with stickers) wouldn't be on the list, now they are. So if you are a Plat with low rolling priority (whatever secret formula they use of EQD's and LP's) you'll be less likely to get upgraded than in the past, as all the higher priority Plats will be ahead of you.

Meaningless I'm afraid.

I am EXP. My companion is Gold. Requested Upgrade on 3/31/22 for Flight to LAS from DFW on #1996

Requested the upgrade well before the 100 hour window and i believe there were 8+ seats. And now I only see 3. Is it fair to assume that there are several folks 'ahead' of me with either CK or EXP (with higher spend) and/or people are spending cash for FC?

It's fair to assume AA sold those seats on the app via a buy up and will do so up until T-0 when all are sold.

This week's flights:

DCA-PHL: Saturday, 530pm, CR7, did not clear. But it's a 20 minute flight and I had 8C which has better legroom than any of the first class seats, so who cares. :p

PHL-LHR: Saturday, evening, 789, Y-->J SWU, cleared about two weeks before the flight when I called in after seeing available space

LHR-ORD, Saturday, midday, 789, Y-->J SWU, cleared off the waitlist after boarding (was first given a PEY seat, after being told J had checked in full, moved up to J after boarding) :cool:

ORD-DEN, Saturday, 530pm, 738, cleared at 100 hours

Recent data points from the past two weeks:

BOS-DCA (Monday evening): Cleared at the EP window. Light elite flight as the list had a few people on it.

DCA-DFW (Wednesday evening): Cleared at the EP window. The flight went out with 48 on the list!

DFW-BOS (Friday evening): Decided to up fare as it was J5 five days out. Flight went out with 15+ on the list.

BOS-DCA (Wednesday evening): Cleared at the window. About 15 people on the list before the flight was cancelled.

DCA-BOS (Friday evening): Cleared at the window and about 20 people on the list.

New EXP with 100k Loyalty Points
Wednesday 787-9 PHX-OGG 20 open seats, upgraded at t-110 hours
Friday 787-9 OGG-PHX 10 open seats, not upgraded. #1 on upgrade list, fell to #3, #1 got upgraded, #2 got upgraded to PE, sitting next to me. I was paid PE.

Last Week's Flights:

DFW-PHL Did not Clear - 13 of 42 at boarding.
ILM-DFW Cleared at T-0:40, 2 of 7 on the list, 1-6 cleared.

Maybe this belongs in another thread, not sure... I almost always travel alone but next month am traveling with my nephew. I'm EXP, he has no status, award tix. Saw that he requires upgrade certs. I thought those were going away? Not that I care, because it's 5 each way and I have 41 and I think they will turn into a tiny amount of LP's, but what gives?

Last week, AA Platinum, ~25,000 LPs.

LAX-ORD, 6am, 5th of 14, no one cleared
ORD-LAX, 3.15pm, 9th of 21, 1 cleared

Recent flight experiences... EXP, ~34K LPs

PHX to DEN (Friday night): Cleared 4 days before departure
DEN to MIA (Friday red-eye): Cleared 26 hours before departure
MCO to PHX (Saturday night): Cleared 4 days before departure
DEN to PHX (Sunday afternoon): Cleared at 40 mins before boarding. Was number 2 of 9. Purchased ticket day before departure.

Have some time to kill waiting in the bustling MTJ regional airport waiting for a delayed flight, so I figured I'll partake.

Platinum with 30k LPs as of now. Did not include flights that I bought first post booking, bought first/business outright, or used an award

1/4/22 PHL to BOS A321: Cleared at T-24
2/24/22 LAX to ORD A321 11:30pm flight: No upgrade
2/27/22 ORD to LAX 737 5:30pm flight: Purchased upfare to try new dinner service in F, 13 on the list, 2 cleared
3/4/22 LAX to DFW A321 1am flight: 17 on the upgrade list, 3 cleared (one on the plane)
3/8/22 MSY to CLT A321 9 am flight: cleared at T-30, 8 on the list, 4 cleared
3/8/22 CLT to CHS A319 4pm flight: no seats available in F
4/1/22 LAX to PHX 4/1/22 a321 7am flight: no upgrade, 20 in first, 3 cleared
4/1/22 PHX to MTJ crj-900 9am flight: T-30 upgrade, 4 on list, everyone cleared. 6/12 seats empty in F
4/4/22 MTJ-PHX crj-900 11:45 flight: upgraded T-30min, 5 on list, 2 cleared
4/4/22 PHX-LAX A319 2:40 pm flight: 5/13 on list for 0 seats

Adding my experience on 4/1 on JFK-MIA on a 777 with Flagship Business. In the recent past I've been clearing this at T-48, since it's so J heavy. However the buy up offer on app was only $161 and likely enticing for many.

At T-24 there were only J2 seats visible on seatmap. On the upgrade list me and my non-elite companion were #6 and #7 out of maybe 15 or so. At T-40, #1 and #4 cleared. #2-3 were same name so likely linked and didn't clear for the one remaining seat.

​​​​​​Once on board, #5 was moved up by gate agent just before the door closed. Then we had a 3 hr delay on tarmac (if you followed this weekend's Florida shenanigans) before returning to gate, where a handful deplaned, including 1 J passenger. 30 mins later we're ready to go and the gate agent appeared to upgrade one of either me and my non-elite companion.

I still don't know why the couple/family in #2-3 weren't upgraded at any point, unless the GA asked and they didn't want to split up. My companion enjoyed a nice 3 hours in J.

Chances of swu clearing lax to lhr ..
 

I’m flying to Dublin from lax on May 1st using an swu from someone I know. I see quite a few open seats in business class. Called and they said it would be waitlisted .. my question is what are the chances that it clears ? I know lax to lhr is a popular route . Thx in advance