The two big rules are avoid DFW and avoid the A319. I do both, and I have a 50-75% upgrade rate as a Platinum Pro.

If you have some flexibility for travel times and dates, use Expert Flyer to see what flights have relatively open F cabins before you book.

I made the same move from UA 1K right at the beginning of 2020 (lol, what timing). I've only missed one domestic upgrade since then, PIT-ORD, but I think it very much depends on the route and day of week. Then again, I don't fly domestic very often and that's more to second tier cities. I had one hub to hub flight (ORD-JFK) in Jan 2020 that I cleared on and since then all hub to hub flights have been on paid business (part of international ticket) or on an SWU (also part of an international ticket).

I'll be out of luck I expect for any more SWUs under the new system as even in many years as (pre-pandemic) UA 1K I often didn't have 30 segments a year, it's all long haul. The people who actually benefit from having SWUs are getting shut out while people who often just waste them on trips they'd get complimentary upgrades on anyway are going to be the only ones who earn them. Makes a lot of sense, LOL.

As someone said, time and date are the biggest factors. Of course the size of the airplane is a big factor as well. With AA waiting for 78x planes from Boeing and intl. travel ramping up most large frames are not doing domestic routes. You can always check AA cargo for an accurate widebody schedule. Maybe even consider coach going west to east and first class coming back . Good luck. I left UA after 2 million miles and my AA experience had been a good one so far

PHX/SFO based and EXP is night and day compared to UA 1K. I'm at 100% this year on AA. And AA almost always upgrades me at the window, or, if I buy inside the window, shortly after purchase. So different from UA, where nothing usually happens until inside T-24 (and that usually involves F seats disappearing, resulting in "booked full" with no upgrades). AA is also much more generous with advance upgrade space on the premium t-cons.

Jury is out on what recent expansion of Plat/Gold upgrade benefit will mean for EXP upgrades (I think it will hurt for those of us who often buy inside the window).

I've had similar experiences flying from PHX and SFO. I have yet to sit in the back as EXP, including a last-minute purchase and a last-minute change, though those had to be processed at the gate. I think if you book too late you are not added to the upgrade list, or something like that, but the GA can take care of it.

I was (technically still am) just Plat on UA. I got several upgrades but nowhere near the success rate I've had with AA, and, as you point out, most happen very late (just before boarding). This is probably how AA status members based in DFW feel as well.

I have about a 80% upgrade rate as an EP this year.

with that, there is no where on EF that one can see complementary upgradable space?

Nope.

This is my eighth year as exp. I must say that AA has treated me well. I’ve averaged about 90% over the years flying out of RIC. Some good advice in the previous replies. My 2 cents:

• avoid A319’s and their 8 seats up front if possible
• check Expert Flyer or AA’s seat maps when booking. If you have flexibility, book the lightest J load flight. If you’re like me and tend to book within two weeks, most leisure pax will already have booked and what’s left in J will probably be there when upgrades commence.
• the regionals with J are not that bad. Some of my favorite seats are the single J’s on the CRJ700/900 and E175.
• AA does try to upsell Y to J, but not to the extent of DL or UA in my experience.

So far I am 71.4% this year, although rarely do they clear in advance. Wife and I cleared as we were boarding today. I have been EXP for years and have never posted a 75+% UG year.

Good advice. Also the E175 has one of the best economy/first class ratios I believe. I've never missed an upgrade on an E175. On the A319, before I became EXP, I would use business extra upgrade certificates on those. Now I just avoid them altogether if possible.

If the flight has flagship first.. i am assuming they will only upgrade me to business. What fare class should i be looking for ?

Fares in classes: C, J, R, D, I are the fare classes to be looking for.

so they will upgrade me if any of those are available (and my turn comes up in the upgrade list).