Rumor, Speculation: AAdvantage Program Devaluation 31 Jul 2019
Jul 30, 2019, 4:48 pm
#198
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I've been following your Twitter feed today. I also see the last-minute, significantly reduced AAnytime J award prices. It's hard to believe that the extent of dynamic award pricing would be to dump unsold seats for cheap at the last minute, and still retain the concept of saver awards. Primarily because they could already dump that inventory by making saver space available. If last-minute AAnytime price reductions prove to be an ongoing occurrence (as opposed to a fare sale), this seems like it has to be a precursor to saver awards / published charts going away permanently.
Edited to add: I see your example now of LAX-NRT at 82.5k, extending out through the end of August. Something extending that far out could theoretically be a fare sale. If these were only appearing a few days before departure I'd have said it's highly unlikely to be a fare sale since those are usually targeted at people who book well in advance, and it wouldn't have made sense for a sale to cover your outbound flight in the next couple days but then your return would be at regular price.
Edited to add: I see your example now of LAX-NRT at 82.5k, extending out through the end of August. Something extending that far out could theoretically be a fare sale. If these were only appearing a few days before departure I'd have said it's highly unlikely to be a fare sale since those are usually targeted at people who book well in advance, and it wouldn't have made sense for a sale to cover your outbound flight in the next couple days but then your return would be at regular price.
Last edited by javabytes; Jul 30, 2019 at 5:08 pm
Jul 30, 2019, 10:41 pm
#199
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Well, the website is down for “improvements“, so there is presumably something afoot, timed exactly with Jon’s reported schedule.
Last edited by ikwia; Jul 30, 2019 at 10:49 pm
Jul 30, 2019, 11:40 pm
#200
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The new award search finally seems to have a calendar. I know for a long time it said "Coming Soon", now it's actually a calendar. I might have missed that if it happened a while back since I primarily use the old search.
TPG is also reporting these discounted AAnytime awards are a fare sale, valid for bookings make through August 12th for travel through December. https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-aan...discount-asia/
US-Japan/Korea:
Economy 47.5k (usually 62.5k)
Premium Economy 57.5k (usually 80k)
Business 82.5k0 (usually 120k)
US-China/HKG
Economy 47.5k (usually 65k)
Premium Economy 67.5k (usually 85k)
Business 87.5k (usually 140k)
TPG is also reporting these discounted AAnytime awards are a fare sale, valid for bookings make through August 12th for travel through December. https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-aan...discount-asia/
US-Japan/Korea:
Economy 47.5k (usually 62.5k)
Premium Economy 57.5k (usually 80k)
Business 82.5k0 (usually 120k)
US-China/HKG
Economy 47.5k (usually 65k)
Premium Economy 67.5k (usually 85k)
Business 87.5k (usually 140k)
Last edited by javabytes; Jul 30, 2019 at 11:54 pm
Jul 31, 2019, 9:28 am
#201
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An "AAnytime" fare sale 
. More AA/airline attempts to make you think 80k+ for a one-way to Japan in business is a good deal.
Ah the old days, where if AA had unsold premium inventory to Asia close in, or in the off season, they would, you know, I dunno, release more friggin sAAver space.
. More AA/airline attempts to make you think 80k+ for a one-way to Japan in business is a good deal.Ah the old days, where if AA had unsold premium inventory to Asia close in, or in the off season, they would, you know, I dunno, release more friggin sAAver space.
Jul 31, 2019, 9:57 am
#202
Join Date: Aug 2016
Programs: Avios
Posts: 438
An "AAnytime" fare sale . More AA/airline attempts to make you think 80k+ for a one-way to Japan in business is a good deal.
Ah the old days, where if AA had unsold premium inventory to Asia close in, or in the off season, they would, you know, I dunno, release more friggin sAAver space.
. More AA/airline attempts to make you think 80k+ for a one-way to Japan in business is a good deal.Ah the old days, where if AA had unsold premium inventory to Asia close in, or in the off season, they would, you know, I dunno, release more friggin sAAver space.
Jul 31, 2019, 10:24 am
#203
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Have to disagree with you on this one 82K in business is actually not bad deal if it going to be available most of the time.Cash fares on this route range from 3k to 7k so 82k is actually a steal.Most people value AA miles around 1.5 cents so that works out to around 1500 taxes included instead of 5k.IMO a pretty good deal.We need to forget the old days .I am ok with this change.
.Agree that the AAnytime flexibility and availability makes it slightly easier to stomach.
But by the same line of thinking, even an insane 375k one-way AAnytime in business to SYD would also be a "good deal" because hey, at that valuation you're saving $1-2k over the cash cost of a ticket
.
Jul 31, 2019, 10:46 am
#204
Join Date: Aug 2016
Programs: Avios
Posts: 438
Oh no, you've caught the virus too .
Agree that the AAnytime flexibility and availability makes it slightly easier to stomach.
But by the same line of thinking, even an insane 375k one-way AAnytime in business to SYD would also be a "good deal" because hey, at that valuation you're saving $1-2k over the cash cost of a ticket.
.Agree that the AAnytime flexibility and availability makes it slightly easier to stomach.
But by the same line of thinking, even an insane 375k one-way AAnytime in business to SYD would also be a "good deal" because hey, at that valuation you're saving $1-2k over the cash cost of a ticket
.
Jul 31, 2019, 10:48 am
#205
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I realize this isn't 100% applicable in this thread, but last week at just past midnight on July 25 I booked two Y award tix LAS-PHX-PHL on July 27 for 12.5K each. That presumably has nothing to do with the dynamic awards or web specials but it ain't bad for booking just over 48 hours out.
. Early AM flight was 5500
Jul 31, 2019, 10:54 am
#206
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I realize this isn't 100% applicable in this thread, but last week at just past midnight on July 25 I booked two Y award tix LAS-PHX-PHL on July 27 for 12.5K each. That presumably has nothing to do with the dynamic awards or web specials but it ain't bad for booking just over 48 hours out.
. Early AM flight was 5500
Jul 31, 2019, 11:04 am
#207
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I could see them making a "New Systemwide" upgrade. Each NSWU would upgrade you one cabin and you could use multiple NSWUs to upgrade multiple levels:
Y to PE = 1 NSWU
Y to J = 2 NSWU
Y to 3 cabin F = 3 NSWU
PE to J = 1 NSWU
PE to 3 cabin F = 2 NSWU
J to 3 cabin F = 1 NSWU
In fairness, they would need to give 8 NSWUs per year to EXP members in order to keep overall upgrading capabilities similar.
I also think they should make the upgrade process a "jump" rather than a "step". IOW, you'd use (e.g.) 2 NSWUs to jump straight from Y to J, rather than having to first clear an upgrade Y to PE with 1 NSWU and then clear a second upgrade PE to J with a second NSWU.
Y to PE = 1 NSWU
Y to J = 2 NSWU
Y to 3 cabin F = 3 NSWU
PE to J = 1 NSWU
PE to 3 cabin F = 2 NSWU
J to 3 cabin F = 1 NSWU
In fairness, they would need to give 8 NSWUs per year to EXP members in order to keep overall upgrading capabilities similar.
I also think they should make the upgrade process a "jump" rather than a "step". IOW, you'd use (e.g.) 2 NSWUs to jump straight from Y to J, rather than having to first clear an upgrade Y to PE with 1 NSWU and then clear a second upgrade PE to J with a second NSWU.
Last edited by mvoight; Jul 31, 2019 at 11:10 am
Jul 31, 2019, 12:40 pm
#208
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: LAX
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Posts: 181
With that said, given that they don't currently give you a break on mileage cost upgrading PE to J vs. Y to J (unless you're on a full W fare) maybe they're not interested in creating that incentive?
Jul 31, 2019, 7:30 pm
#210
Join Date: Aug 2015
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