Rumor, Speculation: AAdvantage Program Devaluation 31 Jul 2019
Jul 2, 2019, 11:35 pm
#136
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: SNA
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K (until it expires then never again), *wood Plat, Marriott Gold
Posts: 9,239
Well since we're into July, I suppose I'll add some more speculation.
1) PE upgrade awards become possible
1a) Complimentary DOD PE upgrades for EXP/CK come to an end altogether, or become restricted to high revenue passengers - meaning either EQD or fare class limitations, or restricted to CK only.
2) Upgrade award pricing becomes increasingly variable. More granular than the current structure where there are two prices, one for upgrades from full-fare and one for discounted fares. Different miles/co-pay requirements per fare class, or more fare groupings than just full-fare/discounted. Potentially some fare classes not upgradeable at all. Co-pay approaches $500 mark for cheaper fare classes. If award charts are pulled (see #6 ), these rates become secret. The other possible approach here is to eliminate traditional award upgrades altogether, and simply upfare between the paid coach fare and the premium cabin fare, and charge miles at a fixed rate like $0.01/mile, though that would be such a drastic change on long-haul that they may do this only for domestic flights and preserve traditional upgrades on international.
3) SWU upgrades become single-cabin; no restrictions on fare classes
4) Changes to domestic upgrades, such as:
4a) Treating MCE as a separate cabin, with capacity-controlled upgrades (a la DL) - gulp.
4b) I'm torn whether it makes sense to double down on the 500-mile cert approach and start removing unlimited comp upgrades, or if it makes more sense to ditch the certs and expand unlimited upgrades, but with the introduction of some revenue-based component (such as fare class restrictions).
5) Partner PE award bookings become possible
6) Expansion of dynamic award pricing; removal of award charts is perhaps the logical next step even if no execution happens at this juncture and Saver awards still exist for the time being.
7) Changes (read: increases) to elite qualification requirements for 2020 qualification year.
Again, just pure speculation. What are others anticipating?
1) PE upgrade awards become possible
1a) Complimentary DOD PE upgrades for EXP/CK come to an end altogether, or become restricted to high revenue passengers - meaning either EQD or fare class limitations, or restricted to CK only.
2) Upgrade award pricing becomes increasingly variable. More granular than the current structure where there are two prices, one for upgrades from full-fare and one for discounted fares. Different miles/co-pay requirements per fare class, or more fare groupings than just full-fare/discounted. Potentially some fare classes not upgradeable at all. Co-pay approaches $500 mark for cheaper fare classes. If award charts are pulled (see #6 ), these rates become secret. The other possible approach here is to eliminate traditional award upgrades altogether, and simply upfare between the paid coach fare and the premium cabin fare, and charge miles at a fixed rate like $0.01/mile, though that would be such a drastic change on long-haul that they may do this only for domestic flights and preserve traditional upgrades on international.
3) SWU upgrades become single-cabin; no restrictions on fare classes
4) Changes to domestic upgrades, such as:
4a) Treating MCE as a separate cabin, with capacity-controlled upgrades (a la DL) - gulp.
4b) I'm torn whether it makes sense to double down on the 500-mile cert approach and start removing unlimited comp upgrades, or if it makes more sense to ditch the certs and expand unlimited upgrades, but with the introduction of some revenue-based component (such as fare class restrictions).
5) Partner PE award bookings become possible
6) Expansion of dynamic award pricing; removal of award charts is perhaps the logical next step even if no execution happens at this juncture and Saver awards still exist for the time being.
7) Changes (read: increases) to elite qualification requirements for 2020 qualification year.
Again, just pure speculation. What are others anticipating?
Jul 2, 2019, 11:59 pm
#137
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Bye Delta
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, IHG Plat, Hyatt Plat, Marriott Plat, Nat'l Exec Elite, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 16,278
I'm speculating that speculating about what may or may not happen is the FT equivalent of masterbation and serves little purpose. Just wait and see what happens and determine if the changes are material when they are announced and decide if the changes affect your purchasing decisions going forward. Getting worked up about what might be just seems pointless, its not like we have any control or influence over any such changes. When these devaluations are on the horizon it seems like some people try to make peace with negative changes by speculating the worst, then take solace when their doomsday scenarios doesn't occur.
2) Contingency planning is not about dealing with situations we can control or influence, but dealing with situations we can’t. I’d rather anticipate changes and determine what my exposure would be, and take mitigating steps if it makes sense to do so. For instance, I’ve sat down and booked award travel out for the next year. I didn’t have to do this, I could wait many months yet. But if no award price increase occurs, I’m no worse off. If dynamic pricing expands, I’m in a better place than if I was unprepared for such a change to land.
Jul 3, 2019, 12:08 am
#138
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: SNA
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1K (until it expires then never again), *wood Plat, Marriott Gold
Posts: 9,239
Fair point taken.
2) Contingency planning is not about dealing with situations we can control or influence, but dealing with situations we can’t. I’d rather anticipate changes and determine what my exposure would be, and take mitigating steps if it makes sense to do so. For instance, I’ve sat down and booked award travel out for the next year. I didn’t have to do this, I could wait many months yet. But if no award price increase occurs, I’m no worse off. If dynamic pricing expands, I’m in a better place than if I was unprepared for such a change to land.
Jul 3, 2019, 12:37 pm
#140
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Skyview
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 32
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Jul 3, 2019, 2:07 pm
#142
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,819
My slam dunk is that class of service upgrades and SWUs will now process Y -> W -> J -> F
If you want J class you're going to have to be in PE to begin with....
If you want J class you're going to have to be in PE to begin with....
Jul 3, 2019, 2:09 pm
#143
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,318
Jul 3, 2019, 2:13 pm
#144
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 2,405
The issue with that IMO is that the W cabins are small and often sell out. IMO AA should retain the ability to upgrade Y-to-J, but give paid W customers priority. Otherwise with a sold out W cabin it won't even be possible to upgrade to J. Then again if AA restricts upgrades to the next cabin only, they may be able to charge a lot more for W.
Jul 3, 2019, 2:43 pm
#145
Join Date: Aug 2010
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,659
This would be awesome, especially if upgrades were more readily available. As it is, my SWUs are only good for J to F upgrades or for someone else who doesn't mind traveling in Y.
Jul 3, 2019, 2:49 pm
#146
Suspended
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
Jul 3, 2019, 2:55 pm
#147
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: PHL
Programs: HH Lifetime Diamond, AA EXP, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 587
I am actually looking at a January trip where I have a few days to kill - trying to figure out the best J EQM/$ with F so I can use SWU's, Try F, and get a kick start on the new year - while making a mini-trip / vacation out of it. That basically limits me to EZE / GRU / HKG / LHR.......
Jul 3, 2019, 3:41 pm
#149
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,819
The issue with that IMO is that the W cabins are small and often sell out. IMO AA should retain the ability to upgrade Y-to-J, but give paid W customers priority. Otherwise with a sold out W cabin it won't even be possible to upgrade to J. Then again if AA restricts upgrades to the next cabin only, they may be able to charge a lot more for W.
Jul 3, 2019, 4:08 pm
#150
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 2,405
What I don't understand though is why AA has done nothing but cheapen and gut their product (especially domestic) while trying to incentivize more spend. I don't have an MBA but I would imagine part of incentivizing customers to buy your product is to start with putting a good product out there in the first place.