Flying CLT-SMF on Monday evening. Still several seats open. Here's to hoping?

If not, I have 10F so I should be good either way. :D

According to Expert Flyer, there are 6 open seats in F but C=0. In looking at the coach/MCE seatmap, there are some middles open, most aisle/window occupied. It is tough to say if any EXP or PRO's have already been upgraded (or PLAT).

I've sat in 10F on many flights and would argue that it might actually be better than sitting in F. Just grab something to eat at CLT and be prepared to settle in; that seems to be a sure way to get upgraded.

Flew three segments lately

Here are the upgrade stats:

Wednesday afternoon DFW-MSP. 1 out of 12 upgrades cleared. I was third as a relatively low EQD plat pro.
Friday morning MSP-ORD 1 out of 36 upgrades cleared. (and boy was the woman who got it a total mess -- held up loading for 5 minutes punching in a fat roller bag that just barely fit in overhead space after much hassle, was actually talking on the phone during take-off, was on the computer during landing, got more than 4 drinks during the ~1 hour flight). Friday afternoon ORD-DFW. 1 out of 34 upgrades cleared.

I was in paid J the last two flights so I don't know where I would have standed. But needless to say, the upgrade benefit for anything but maybe concierge key is more myth than fact.

Can we stop making blanket statements like this? That statement is far from uniformly true. I get plenty of upgrades as an EXP - so do others. At same time other people don't have a good success rate with upgrades.

What is true is that upgrade experience is highly variable based on routes, days, and time of day.

This conclusion is not supported by the stories that preceded it. If a low EQD PPro is 3rd on the list that suggests to me that CK and EXP have already been upgraded. Even if they hadn't it suggests that there weren't any on the flight then, which means conclusions about benefits for EXPs cannot be drawn. Certainly my experience is that (as a modest EQD EXP) I either clear well in advance (often at the 100 hours) or not at all (and these are usually well full in F before the 100 hours is even approaching). Yes, I would like an upgrade, but if the seats can be sold and can keep the airline afloat, then thats a good thing.

I am a $20K EQD ExecPlat, and my flights are running around 60% success for e500 eligible upgrades.
I fly Thursdays and Sundays. My rare midweek flights are more like 80%

High chance of clearing, IMO.

I would avoid Friday / Saturday since this is a leisure route. And I would take the later DFW-HNL, as most leisure trips will hit the first connection for the cheaper pricing.

Also avoid flying close to spring break.

Regarding SFO-NYC-SFO on Thu. Would it be safer to assume the latest or last flights out of each evening have higher upgrade priority?

Thanks. This would not apply to my companion however correct?

Okay sure, I will be less blanketed. Upgrades on routes between midsized/major US airports on 73Xs and 319-321s are more myth than fact. If the flight is during the workweek and during the daylight, maybe a CK or high EQD ExPlat has a shot at the maybe 1 open seat. Weekends or weekdays late at night -- upgrades are doable if you are a ExPlat. If you fly those local regional flights on CRJ-700/900 or ERJ-175 with an F cabin (which are outsized compared to the main cabin), I am sure upgrades on those short hops are no problem for a broad swath of elites.

I agree, and I need AA to be strong because if they cut back, my local service will likely cease, and the convenience of that service means a lot to me. But, on my last trip, I couldn't even pay cash for a first class DFW-MSP seat for Wednesday when I was booking two days before the flight (though, one seat opened up the morning of which allowed the one upgrade to clear as I indicate above where I was 3rd of 12). I was hoping to buy F for the ability to better get work done (and last minute F isn't much more than last minute Y anyways). Nor could I find a first class ticket that went DFW-ORD-MSP for that day (because of the DFW-ORD segment). If I left Tuesday, there was only 1 F seat open on any route that came up from SWO-MSP. For my Friday return, the only F availability was for a ~5:30AM flight from MSP-DFW or the mid-morning flight through chicago as well (which was the one I took).

I've only been platpro since my challenge period started in May, and since this last bout of extra unexpected travel came to pass, I will end up meeting the challenge and be Plat Pro until Jan 2020. My bet is that my upgrade % when all is said and done will come to 0-5%.

DATA POINT: My MCI-PHL-BNA tomorrow and BNA-PHL-MCI on Wednesday morning both cleared close to T-72 (even with two segments on the dreaded A319) as a PlatPro. I've done 63 segments so far this year and been upgraded on 55 of them so about 87%.. Luckily, flying out of MCI helps a lot with that percentage. Also, I've done a lot of Tuesday/Wednesday/Friday morning travel which has also helped.

Correct. If your companion is Gold or Platinum, they will continue to earn 500-mile upgrades.