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-   -   Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1883276-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2018-master-thread.html)

beachfan Jul 19, 2018 4:01 pm

Reposted original in another thread

dmodemd Jul 19, 2018 4:52 pm

I have been observing the upgrade clearance on my regular two flights to see what my chances will be as I move up the ranks and here is what I have observed so far.
On my outbound Monday 545a SEA-CLT I am seeing upgrade chances being pretty good. I sometimes see a blank upgrade list and my one time as a Plat with e500s I was able to clear into the last seat available.
For my Thursday 4:30p CLT-SEA, it is much harder. I sometimes see Group 2 boarders so some Plat Pros did not clear into First, Group 1. On most of my Plat e500 attempts I am in 1st - 3rd on the list but I see J0 usually in the morning already. I did clear once as a Plat with e500s but have made about 4 attempts so far. I do think that when I hit Plat Pro in a few weeks that I will have a good chance on the outbound and maybe a 25-30% chance on the return. That may improve further after summer.

I am still cursing AA for not allowing any status matching or a challenge beyond Plat. It has been a long hard climb up the ranks to catch up to my granted Plat status and then exceed. I haven't had to do that climb since I became a UA regular in 2005.

Finsup72 Jul 19, 2018 7:30 pm


Originally Posted by dmodemd (Post 29992590)
I sometimes see Group 2 boarders so some Plat Pros did not clear into First, Group 1.

Group 2 is only Executive Platinum and Oneworld Emerald, so if you see anyone in Group 2, they are likely Executive Platinums who did not clear their upgrades. There are no Platinum Pros in this group, unless of course they decided to jump the line from Group 3 and instead board in Group 2 which seems to be a regular occurrence at AA as the gate agents do not enforce boarding groups very well.

remedy Jul 19, 2018 9:24 pm

AA 71 FRA => DFW on 7/20 - upgraded using SWU 24 hours out.

TSparky Jul 19, 2018 9:28 pm


Originally Posted by tomj888 (Post 29983440)
As an Exec Plat, I've seen my free upgrades diminish. I seem to end up #1 on the list. Fly LAX-IND and scored an upgrade at T24. Not bad for an 8 seat F cabin on A319. Prior to this year, I would say my upgrade percentage was about 60%. Primary markets I fly domestic are LAX- DFW, ORD, SFO and an occasional JFK.

I also fly that route and I usually avoid the direct because of the schedule (10am) and the 2 row F in the 319. The alternative of LAX-DFW is almost impossible being a hub to hub.

bse118 Jul 20, 2018 8:20 am

DEN-CLT-DCA for this coming Tuesday morning cleared at 100 hours (A321/A319).

I continue to clear upgrades on the majority of my domestic flights, with a lot of them coming at 100 hours.

dcfit Jul 20, 2018 12:25 pm

Long time reader, first time poster...decided it was time to start contributing.

SEA-ORD-DCA today on the way back from a work trip. 12/30 on the upgrade list for SEA-ORD, but cleared ORD-DCA (which is now delayed ~40 minutes and leaves later this afternoon) segment a little over 24 hours out. Flight is at an odd time back to DC, so I'm sure that helped. I have cleared DCA-ORD once before a couple of months ago.

FWIW, I made Platinum with a challenge earlier this year, will requalify for next year next week, and have already booked enough flights to get me to EXP later this year--my 12-month rolling EQD is probably at the upper end of Platinum.

gboots Jul 20, 2018 12:45 pm

Anybody want to guess on my wife and I using SWU on LAX-HKG and back? I am about 15k EQD ... flying out on a wed (10/3) and return back on Sat (10/6)
I have had good success using SWU on this route before but never when trying to upgrade more than myself.. .We are current book in PEY

thedeeg Jul 21, 2018 7:50 am

Decent success rate this weekend:

RDU-PHL-DTW-PHL-RDU - 75% success so far. 2 cleared at t24 and 1 at t0.5. Hoping the final leg clears at the gate tomorrow.

I’m GLD currently, so only any hope on short hops, despite rolling EQD of $15K.

thedeeg Jul 22, 2018 6:55 am

100% success rate in the end.

Made the 3:30AM start a bit more bearable.

beachfan Jul 22, 2018 1:32 pm

I learned that if you use miles/copay and then board because they said they'd get you, then your chances of upgrading are close to 100%. They got CKs and SWUs users but passed me over to a ExPlat lower on the list relying on complimentary upgrades because the said they didn't have time to process the copay if I've boarded. In spite of telling me they'd get me.

I argued (not loudly), escalated (was lucky a supervisor gate agent came on board), argues more, and finally got it (I said if you are giving it away because of time constraints, I'm also eligible for free upgrades). I was #7 on the list, I saw on the app #9 cleared, and that's when I got up to speak to the gate agent who just came on board.

I got it because 5&6 didn't want to split up, so I cleared. But it's a tough choice - give up your upgrade or give up a place to put your carry-on.

If it clears prior to gate control, the payment is automatic, why not at the gate?

Uzzar Jul 22, 2018 2:26 pm

[QUOTE=beachfan;30001454]I learned that if you use miles/copay and then board because they said they'd get you, then your chances of upgrading are close to 100%. They got CKs and SWUs users but passed me over to a ExPlat lower on the list relying on complimentary upgrades because the said they didn't have time to process the copay if I've boarded. In spite of telling me they'd get me.
...
[/QUOTE

Was this international or domestic? Also, I don't understand why they cant process all upgrades before boarding apart from waiting for F pax that might have just landed.

TSparky Jul 22, 2018 6:26 pm

EXP with 30k EQD
DFW-IND was showing 13 or 16 seats available but didn't clear until t-22h
DFW-LAX I was 3 of 37 and didn't clear - 789 is always a tough upgrade on this route. I'm lucky to clear 1 in 5.

econometrics Jul 22, 2018 8:11 pm

DFW-SNA departing 14:35 today. I was #2 on the list. No one cleared. F seemed to be full for the past week or so. I’m about $21K rolling EQD. My colleague is just a bit less and was #4 on the list.

redtop43 Jul 22, 2018 10:18 pm

Question about upgrades (I hope this is the right thread):

Suppose I am PlatPro and flying with a non-status companion on the same record on a non-award ticket. Is it true that we will both get upgraded based on my priority, and that if we do I'll have to pay for her upgrade with stickers?

What happens if I'm on a paid ticket and she's on an award ticket? I don't know if PP are even eligible for upgrades on award tix.


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