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-   -   Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1883276-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2018-master-thread.html)

adunker Jul 30, 2018 1:26 pm

07/27 DFW-CLT & 07/29 CLT-DFW both upgrades cleared. Plat elite with ~$18k rolling EQD.

ilkhats44 Jul 30, 2018 4:33 pm


Originally Posted by Finsup72 (Post 30028559)
Low probability unless you're a CK or maybe EXP - assuming you're on AA2726, ExpertFlyer is currently showing J1 Y1 which means it's nearly sold-out in both business and coach.

Oh wow, I wonder if AA will oversell the flight.

mcrw00 Jul 30, 2018 10:58 pm

Trying my luck with a PY to J upgrade on DFW-HKG Aug 18.

Got on the list when I purchased the ticket in late May. At that time EF showed J7, and it has stayed that way up until the present. First is at F3.

I am not familiar with this route, but in the case of Tokyo routes IME more than 7 premium seats open less than a month prior to departure indicates a relatively good chance of my upgrade clearing. Can the same be said for HKG, or is this a route that tends to see a lot of last-minute J/F purchases?

Also, is it safe to say that there will be enough J pax on the F u/g list to fill any of those 3 F seats that are still vacant come departure time?

I do not want to get a false sense of hope since I know that this is a very difficult upgrade to get, even more so on Saturday, but on the other hand the current snapshot of seat availability seems decent...

Brandontheflyer Jul 31, 2018 10:27 am

I am flying POS-MIA on AA2282 on August 8. I am using a SWU for this flight. Can anyone tell me the chances of me being upgraded?

lds89 Jul 31, 2018 10:37 am

SFO-JFK; A321T, Wed night redeye - cleared 40 hours out
JFK-BOS; A321T, Thu morning - cleared 100 hours out

About $27k in rolling, ttm EQD and haven't missed an upgrade since April and only three segments missed this year (with most clearing 30-100 hours in advance).

Finsup72 Jul 31, 2018 10:47 am


Originally Posted by Brandontheflyer (Post 30031995)
I am flying POS-MIA on AA2282 on August 8. I am using a SWU for this flight. Can anyone tell me the chances of me being upgraded?

That flight is currently J4 C0, hard to tell at this point whether J will sell out in advance.

Brandontheflyer Aug 4, 2018 11:58 am


Originally Posted by Finsup72 (Post 30032084)
That flight is currently J4 C0, hard to tell at this point whether J will sell out in advance.

Thanks for the info. My SWU just cleared

rubikcube Aug 4, 2018 2:09 pm


Originally Posted by mcrw00 (Post 30030299)
Trying my luck with a PY to J upgrade on DFW-HKG Aug 18.

Got on the list when I purchased the ticket in late May. At that time EF showed J7, and it has stayed that way up until the present. First is at F3.

I am not familiar with this route, but in the case of Tokyo routes IME more than 7 premium seats open less than a month prior to departure indicates a relatively good chance of my upgrade clearing. Can the same be said for HKG, or is this a route that tends to see a lot of last-minute J/F purchases?

Also, is it safe to say that there will be enough J pax on the F u/g list to fill any of those 3 F seats that are still vacant come departure time?

I do not want to get a false sense of hope since I know that this is a very difficult upgrade to get, even more so on Saturday, but on the other hand the current snapshot of seat availability seems decent...

I’m doing the exact same thing on 8/19 and wondering the same thing. It looks like today there were 16 people on the upgrade list and more than half showed as cleared. Other days over the past week have shown every person on the upgrade list clearing. It looked like quite a few cleared into PE though. I’ve had good success on TATL routes in that situation as an EXP, but don’t have much experience over the pacific.

mcrw00 Aug 5, 2018 10:35 am


Originally Posted by rubikcube (Post 30047684)


I’m doing the exact same thing on 8/19 and wondering the same thing. It looks like today there were 16 people on the upgrade list and more than half showed as cleared. Other days over the past week have shown every person on the upgrade list clearing. It looked like quite a few cleared into PE though. I’ve had good success on TATL routes in that situation as an EXP, but don’t have much experience over the pacific.

How are you able to see the upgrade list on days when you aren't flying?

Also, are complimentary Y to PE upgrades tracked on the same upgrade list as upgrades to J and F?

Antarius Aug 5, 2018 10:53 am

Flying SFO-JFK-GIG on Thursday. GIG-JFK-SFO next Tuesday.

SWUs cleared on booking. ^

Stripe Aug 5, 2018 11:02 am

Late afternoon last Sunday... AUS-DFW, #12 on the list, sat in Y. Two or three cleared at the gate. DFW-SNA, #1 on the list, cleared at the gate. Just me, although several had cleared earlier.

Late morning Wednesday... DFW-SNA, #1 of 9 on the list, cleared at the gate after one confirmed passenger failed to check in. DFW-AUS cleared at T-104.

Rolling EQDs probably a bit under $12K.

rubikcube Aug 5, 2018 11:04 am


Originally Posted by mcrw00 (Post 30050008)
How are you able to see the upgrade list on days when you aren't flying?

Also, are complimentary Y to PE upgrades tracked on the same upgrade list as upgrades to J and F?

You can view it through the app by looking at the flight status within 4 hours of departure. Keep in mind that the list doesn’t include anyone who cleared in advance, so it’s impossible to know how many cleared before. Today, there were 8 on the list and only 1 cleared to J. However, it looked like many more may have cleared yesterday.

Do you have status on AA?

mcrw00 Aug 5, 2018 12:43 pm


Originally Posted by rubikcube (Post 30050101)


You can view it through the app by looking at the flight status within 4 hours of departure. Keep in mind that the list doesn’t include anyone who cleared in advance, so it’s impossible to know how many cleared before. Today, there were 8 on the list and only 1 cleared to J. However, it looked like many more may have cleared yesterday.

Do you have status on AA?

EXP. Haven't calculated what my rolling EQDs will be by 8/18, but should be right around the 12K mark.

I'll keep you updated.

TSparky Aug 5, 2018 1:26 pm

Exp with ~28k
Sun 7/29 BUR-PHX no upgrade, BUR-IND at ~48
Thu 8/2 IND-PHX no upgrade, PHX-BUR at ~100 but missed connection after detour to TUS and back to PHX
Fri 8/3 PHX-SAN at door close, SAN-LAX no upgrade
Sun 8/5 LAX-DFW waitlisted SWU but complimentary hit instead at 48, DFW-IND at 47 also complimentary

It's been all over the map. Flights I expect to upgrade I don't, tough flights (DFW-LAX 789) I do. I blame it on leisure travelers. :)

rubikcube Aug 5, 2018 3:19 pm


Originally Posted by mcrw00 (Post 30050394)
EXP. Haven't calculated what my rolling EQDs will be by 8/18, but should be right around the 12K mark.

I'll keep you updated.

One of the interesting things about your flight is that the seat map is half empty, but R, D, and I are all 0. The next Saturday, the return flight from HKG-DFW shows J1 with a similar map. I typically view this as bad for upgrade chances, but it’s strange considering the seat map (which we all know is limited in usefulness).


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