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Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?

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Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?

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Old Feb 4, 2018, 12:07 pm
  #136  
E55
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 328
Speculation: First week for EQD qualifiers... thinner elite ranks?

It would seem the attrition should be evident this week if it's going to noticeably exist. How much thinner do the elite ranks seem based on upgrade lists, boarding groups, or other seat-of-the-pants metrics in your experience?
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Old Feb 4, 2018, 12:30 pm
  #137  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New York, NY
Programs: AA EXP Plat, Mariott Gold, Hilton Gold
Posts: 165
Somehow my 500 mile upgrades cleared SFO to PHX 36 hours out as Plat and then saw 24 on the list when I arrived. Not sure how my upgrade cleared first.
Pasqualle7 is offline  
Old Feb 4, 2018, 3:26 pm
  #138  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
Originally Posted by Pasqualle7
Somehow my 500 mile upgrades cleared SFO to PHX 36 hours out as Plat and then saw 24 on the list when I arrived. Not sure how my upgrade cleared first.
It has been reported elsewhere that there may be an IT bug allowing Plat and PlatPro upgrades to clear before EXP. Not confirmed.

As for the main topic of this thread - we've had several threads on the topic. No here knows the answer. Most recent thread: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...-status-3.html (As OP knows since he/she posted in this thread)
bse118 is offline  
Old Feb 4, 2018, 4:39 pm
  #139  
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: DFW-In Plano & CDG-In the 11th
Programs: DL Diamond, AA revenue negative, Bonvoy Titanium +, Avis likes me
Posts: 3,209
5 Data points

Jan 30 DFW-SAN #8 on the list
Jan 31 SAN-PHX #8 on the list
Jan 31 PHX-SFO #4 on the list
Feb 02 SFO-LAX Upgraded at 72 hour mark
Feb 02 LAX-DFW Upgraded at 100 hour mark

YMMV
aztimm likes this.
Dallas49er is offline  
Old Feb 4, 2018, 10:14 pm
  #140  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SF + PHX
Programs: AA EXP, UA 1k, Marriott Gold, HH Gold, X Elite+
Posts: 262
Ok more concerned about you all using 500 milers to upgrades to go phx-sfo. You know that’s costing you two for an alcoholic beverage and a snack basket, right? Thankful EXP that knows better here 😜

last 3 including crossover:
1/28 jfk-sfo cleared 48hrs
1/31 oak-phx cleared 100hrs
2/4 phx-oak cleared 120hrs
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 2:56 pm
  #141  
OTD
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: PBI/MIA
Programs: AAdvantage Gold, HHonors Diamond, Marriott Gold, Skymiles, Mileage Plus
Posts: 397
I was 13th this morning on a 321 PBI-CLT. Obviously, I didn't clear. One guy did, then had to walk back to Y when the F seat's original owner showed up about the time Group 8 was boarding. That had to suck.

1 for 6 this year. Was around 5th on the list for the other four non-clears.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 4:22 pm
  #142  
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: New York
Programs: AA, CX, Hyatt, Marriott
Posts: 1,484
Originally Posted by OTD
I was 13th this morning on a 321 PBI-CLT. Obviously, I didn't clear. One guy did, then had to walk back to Y when the F seat's original owner showed up about the time Group 8 was boarding. That had to suck.

1 for 6 this year. Was around 5th on the list for the other four non-clears.
Just to be clear, you are PLT Pro?

I feel the upgrade priorities for PP and EXP are quite different for a hub route.
andersonCooper is offline  
Old Feb 5, 2018, 4:36 pm
  #143  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New York, NY
Programs: AA EXP Plat, Mariott Gold, Hilton Gold
Posts: 165
Originally Posted by Kreative03
Ok more concerned about you all using 500 milers to upgrades to go phx-sfo. You know that’s costing you two for an alcoholic beverage and a snack basket, right? Thankful EXP that knows better here 😜

last 3 including crossover:
1/28 jfk-sfo cleared 48hrs
1/31 oak-phx cleared 100hrs
2/4 phx-oak cleared 120hrs
Well being I have close to 60 of them and found its decently hard to use them... I put them in for every flight. But hey im glad you THINK you know better.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 5:56 pm
  #144  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,033
Originally Posted by Pasqualle7
Somehow my 500 mile upgrades cleared SFO to PHX 36 hours out as Plat and then saw 24 on the list when I arrived. Not sure how my upgrade cleared first.
That's disconcerting.
enviroian is offline  
Old Feb 5, 2018, 8:01 pm
  #145  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AAdantage EXP
Posts: 41
I'd be very curious to hear if anyone can confirm the rumors that Plat / Plat Pros are clearing before EXP due to a system glitch. As a EXP my upgrade rate so far this year has been the lowest it's ever been, around 50%. This morning I was #14 on my TPA->CLT flight. In previous years when I didn't clear in advance I was almost always 1-3, this year it's been more like 8-10 on the list. Granted I had only around $500 for spend in December, but my annual spend is around $20k so I can't imagine one month has pushed me that far back on the list.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 8:34 pm
  #146  
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: DCA
Programs: UA LT 1K, AA EXP, Bonvoy LT Titan, Avis PC, Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,658
I still say there are now more EXPs. I think AA is now giving away high level status to corporations. Set next to a guy, flying to Asia on an expensive ticket. Everyone in the company that travels at all gets Plat as a starting point, and then several other positions including EXPs and of course CKs.

My upgrade rate has gone to zero except for flights on Saturday and still not all flights on a Sat. This weekend - on Sat I cleared on outbound flight in advance (4 days ahead), both next segment and both segment on returns I was way down on the upgrade list. On Sat, the none cleared flight I was number 3, on Sunday I was 11 and 6 on the upgrade list.

On DFW to DCA flight the week before I was number 11 out of 20 EXPs. On a few weeks before I was 15 out of over 20 EXPs. SO I am not at the bottom on the EXP list.

Yes EXP will still get a few upgrades. I don't see much reason to be Plat Pro unless you are going fly otherwise, as they won't clear. At least Plat gets advance MCE and Flagship access on International.

Main reason for EXP is the 4 SWUs (which could be hard to use on some routes) and the free changes on rewards and same day change.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 10:29 pm
  #147  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: London and Madrid
Programs: BA Gold, UA 2MM, Hyatt Globalist, Columbia Record & Tape Club Triple Diamond VIP
Posts: 580
I don't think it's a glitch

Originally Posted by Joe Bankard
I'd be very curious to hear if anyone can confirm the rumors that Plat / Plat Pros are clearing before EXP due to a system glitch. As a EXP my upgrade rate so far this year has been the lowest it's ever been, around 50%. This morning I was #1 4 on my TPA->CLT flight. In previous years when I didn't clear in advance I was almost always 1-3, this year it's been more like 8-10 on the list. Granted I had only around $500 for spend in December, but my annual spend is around $20k so I can't imagine one month has pushed me that far back on the list.
My spend last year was $65K, 220K whatever-they're-called qualifying miles. I couldn't even get a same day change on a paid first class refundable ticket from LAX to SFO. I was #1 on the wait list, could only get a seat way, way back in Y. They made me wait on a second list for F. Seriously.

Whether or or not there are fewer elites, my impression is that we're all chasing a reduced supply of benefits.

There's a marketing principle here: it's better to invest in the customer whose loyalty you have yet to win (P Pro) than in the one willing to demonstrate that loyalty year after year. We EXPs may not be such marketing investments.
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Old Feb 6, 2018, 7:10 am
  #148  
OTD
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: PBI/MIA
Programs: AAdvantage Gold, HHonors Diamond, Marriott Gold, Skymiles, Mileage Plus
Posts: 397
Originally Posted by andersonCooper
Just to be clear, you are PLT Pro?

I feel the upgrade priorities for PP and EXP are quite different for a hub route.
Yes, Plat Pro. I face two problems: one end of my trips is at a hub, the other end is at a place with a lot of rich people who pay for F.
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Old Feb 6, 2018, 8:38 am
  #149  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,148
Originally Posted by cova
I still say there are now more EXPs. I think AA is now giving away high level status to corporations. Set next to a guy, flying to Asia on an expensive ticket. Everyone in the company that travels at all gets Plat as a starting point, and then several other positions including EXPs and of course CKs.
AirPass customers. They give EXP to 1-2 key people, but then PLT to the other travelers using the account.

I'm finding that using my SWU's is still very easy. I've cleared both of mine on an upcoming EZE trip during summer season down there. And looking at the other flights (MIA, JFK), there's C7 across the board.

Also cleared a lot of LHR-DFW last year in advance when C space opened up.
econometrics is offline  
Old Feb 6, 2018, 8:57 am
  #150  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 5,270
Originally Posted by Dallas49er
Jan 30 DFW-SAN #8 on the list
Jan 31 SAN-PHX #8 on the list
Jan 31 PHX-SFO #4 on the list
Feb 02 SFO-LAX Upgraded at 72 hour mark
Feb 02 LAX-DFW Upgraded at 100 hour mark
Thanks for sharing.

I don't think anyone's arguing that there are more elites on Feb. 1 than on Jan. 31 (or at least I hope not). Whether the year-on-year numbers increase or decrease remains to be seen. By AA. I mean, we'll never know

For what it's worth, I'm still clearing most upgrades, like always.
rjw242 is offline  


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