Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?
 

Deciding on a potential "miles run" to retain EXP with the purchase of a J class ticket to Asia. Figuring there will be even less now with the EQD minimum.

Will have 100k EQMs and 9k EQD come mid December. Travel domestically very often and a few times a year to Tokyo and Hong Kong. Have been lucky where all of my system wide upgrades have been approved far in advance and I have only *not* been upgraded 3 flights out of 25 or so.

Big question : Is it worth me purchasing a $3000 biz class to Tokyo, to ensure being at the top of the upgrade list domestically and what could/wold likely be another four free upgrades in Y on longhaul flights for next year.

Decisions, decisions. Any insight is appreciated!

I want to know where you get a J ticket return to Tokyo for 3K ?

We kid about this every year — “there will be a big purge come 3/1 (next year it is 2/1). Never really have seen a huge difference since AA tends to offer buy-ups and buybacks. And then challenges. And comp uograde to EP to Select customers. And then there are new/re-signed Corp contracts that seem to throw some new EPs into the mix.

we have ave yet to hear how they will handle buy/ups this year or how they will deal with people that say met the EQD requirement but not the EQM requirement. And visa versa I guess.

But, with all of this said, “next Feb 1 could bring a good flush” now that PP exists with half way decent benefits. U might be right!

Only time will tell..

Never.

If upgrades are important to you for a particular route, just pay for an F or J fare to begin with. If you're not getting status organically, your rolling EQDs are probably too low to get upgrades consistently anyway.

I'm just amazed one can fly 100K miles and only have $9K in spend.

Really? $500 fares to Europe and Asia are all over the place now. 100k miles is a breeze these days with only ~$4-5k or less spend.

$500 fares to Europe? Maybe on Laker.

base fares + YQ, excluding taxes. Easy.

I have traveled on several this year.

I just went to GOOGLE FLIGHTS, JFK-CDG rt dep. 12/7 ret. 12/11 (non-stops) $558...lots of other similar fares.

Not everyone lives in New York.

West coast Y fares to the UK are solidly $1400 easy.

Yes but fares from west coast to Asia are routinely $600-900 now even up to the fairly last minute

Would you spend $750 extra to travel business class on those flights ? how much is a discounted business class fare in relation to the fare that you would pay

How much do you value yout time as to waste a couple of days just sat on an aeroplane to Tokyo, hanging around in Tokyo and flying back

Does it actually sound sane to spend $3000 to improve the change of getting an upgrade domestically

I paid $1500 for a coach ticket dfw-pvg in February. Quick google flights confirms that price is still accurate. I guess it all boils down to YMMV.

Why? I'm at 101k EQM and about 9k EQD. It's easy enough to lots of discounted economy transatlantic/Pacific flying. Luckily I'll keep EXP with a MR in BA premium economy OSL-SFO.

Do you have the Barclay Red or Silver card? Depending on how much you spend ($25K or $50K) you could be getting $3K or $6K EQD plus 10K EQM.

If you are considering a $3K J ticket - $25K per year is likely in your range. Pay your taxes on your CC, with the 1.87% fee. Much cheaper than spending $3K for a mileage run.

I am not expecting a big drop in the number of EXPs. I earned it in June of this year but with the help of the CC bonuses. People are also getting their EQD up, above the cheap ticket price by getting Bulk fares through AA Vacations or Citi Thank you points. And some are doing cheap Qatar J fares as well for Distance based EQD calculation.