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ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)

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Old Sep 18, 2015, 10:16 am
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Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated thread)
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.

This situation changed with JonNYC's revelations here and on travelingbetter.com on November 5, 2015. Please see the current thread, 2016 AAdvantage Program Changes for further discussion. This speculation thread has now been archived.

Q. What do we know at this point?

Nothing.

Q. When would a change occur?

We don't know.

Q. Will there be changes?

We don't know.

Q. Are there clues?
Mr. Parker stated there would be no changes for 2015.

Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.

28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
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ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)

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Old Oct 1, 2015 | 3:12 pm
  #211  
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Originally Posted by tom911
The agent knew I was an AA flyer. She was referring to my comped upgrades as an AA EXP flyer. US flyers weren't a topic of discussion at all. I'm not a US elite flyer.
Something like that comes up, how can you not ask for more information and clarification about what she meant.
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Old Oct 1, 2015 | 3:14 pm
  #212  
 
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Somebody misunderstood somebody (I'm thinking a little of both, actually) - she was trying to tell you that after 10/17, all upgrades for Plat and Gold would require stickers, even on pmUS routes/metal. NOT that EXP UDU benefit was going away.
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Old Oct 1, 2015 | 6:16 pm
  #213  
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Originally Posted by pa3lsvt
Somebody misunderstood somebody (I'm thinking a little of both, actually) - she was trying to tell you that after 10/17, all upgrades for Plat and Gold would require stickers, even on pmUS routes/metal. NOT that EXP UDU benefit was going away.
No, it is effective 10/17, not after 10/17.
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Old Oct 2, 2015 | 8:40 am
  #214  
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I will have enough AAdvantage miles for an F award next year. Will they by any chance have devalued the award chart by early January, or do they usually give a few weeks notice?
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Old Oct 2, 2015 | 10:53 am
  #215  
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Originally Posted by LH4116
I will have enough AAdvantage miles for an F award next year. Will they by any chance have devalued the award chart by early January, or do they usually give a few weeks notice?
There would be notice, far more likely months than weeks.

FWIW, viewfromthewing postulates that it's already too late (or rapidly, rapidly becoming) for certain, major 2016 changes:
http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea....based-in-2016/

Something I generally agree with in principal.
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Old Oct 2, 2015 | 11:00 am
  #216  
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Originally Posted by JonNYC
There would be notice, far more likely months than weeks.
There was absolutely zero notice when AA eliminated explorer awards and added tiers to anytime awards a few years ago. What would stop AA from sending out another email tomorrow saying "we've made some more changes" and doubling all partner award redemptions, for example? Nothing. No reason at all to trust this new regime.

And I know you're far more connected than anyone here. Just saying I don't trust LCC management at all at this point.

Last edited by no1cub17; Oct 2, 2015 at 8:20 pm
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Old Oct 2, 2015 | 11:02 am
  #217  
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Originally Posted by no1cub17
There was absolutely zero notice when AA eliminated explorer awards and added tiers to anytime awards a few years ago. What would stop AA from sending out another email tomorrow saying "we've made some more changes" and doubling all partner award redemptions, for example? Nothing. No reason at all to trust this new regime.
I'm not unaware that some people feel that way. Personally I agree with Gary.
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 7:22 am
  #218  
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Originally Posted by JonNYC
I'm not unaware that some people feel that way. Personally I agree with Gary.
In all fairness, AAdvantage has been a profitable program since most elites have to pay for stickers to upgrades while DL and UA have complimentary upgrades (though they are more rare of course, but still, elites don't pay for "stickers"). Perhaps that's why they are not in a rush to change it... they recently implemented that on flights under 500 miles non-EXP/CK will get complimentary upgrades; they know that the vast majority of elites on most flights will still be paying for upgrades so that's how AA compensates for not having a revenue-based program because again, most elites are already spending a lot more for upgrades, e.g., a flight of 2,100 miles at $175 one-way will require an additional $150 (5 stickers x $30 each) spend for Gold and Platinum Elites.
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 10:14 am
  #219  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
In all fairness, AAdvantage has been a profitable program since most elites have to pay for stickers to upgrades while DL and UA have complimentary upgrades (though they are more rare of course, but still, elites don't pay for "stickers"). Perhaps that's why they are not in a rush to change it... they recently implemented that on flights under 500 miles non-EXP/CK will get complimentary upgrades; they know that the vast majority of elites on most flights will still be paying for upgrades so that's how AA compensates for not having a revenue-based program because again, most elites are already spending a lot more for upgrades, e.g., a flight of 2,100 miles at $175 one-way will require an additional $150 (5 stickers x $30 each) spend for Gold and Platinum Elites.
Except that the product worth paying stickers for is now long gone, having been replaced by something that is, one a rare good day, maybe on par with DL and UA. On a 1005 mile flight, why would I ever pay the Y fare, then buy $90 worth of stickers to maybe upgrade, when I can go to DL and purchase a guaranteed F fare for $60 more than AA is charging for Y? This is a scenario I run into very often.
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 10:28 am
  #220  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
... that the vast majority of elites on most flights will still be paying for upgrades so that's how AA compensates for not having a revenue-based program because again, most elites are already spending a lot more for upgrades, e.g., a flight of 2,100 miles at $175 one-way will require an additional $150 (5 stickers x $30 each) spend for Gold and Platinum Elites.
How do you come to the conclusion that "most elites are already spending a lot for upgrades?"

I won't ever buy stickers. I'll happily upgrade using the ones I earn from flying, but would never think about buying additional ones.

None of the domestic first class products on UA, DL, AA are worth paying anything for (outside of the NYC - SFO/LAX runs).
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 10:39 am
  #221  
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Originally Posted by bse118
How do you come to the conclusion that "most elites are already spending a lot for upgrades?"

I won't ever buy stickers. I'll happily upgrade using the ones I earn from flying, but would never think about buying additional ones.

None of the domestic first class products on UA, DL, AA are worth paying anything for (outside of the NYC - SFO/LAX runs).
I know a lot that do. As EXP I still buy a lot of stickers - for when I have a traveling companion in my PNR - since EXPs do not earn any stickers.

If the companion upgrade clears (and it would clear with the EXP) - many times the cost of the stickers exceed the cost of the original ticket. And the stickers are not taken until you check in at the airport.

So if you do DCA-DFW-LAX RT - that is 12 stickers or $360. The ticket many times is less than that amount - so you are really paying more like $700 for the RT ticket. Sometimes it likely pays just to by the F ticket.

If you buy a ticket on aa.com as EXP and have someone else in your PNR, the system automatically puts both you and the companion on the wait list. I guess you need to call and separate the PNR if you don't want to upgrade the companion or cancel that upgrade at the check in counter.

Now who is going to do that - cancel their companion's upgrade at the airport? (you pay up)

And if you don't have enough stickers in your account, you have to buy them at a higher price at the counter.
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 12:18 pm
  #222  
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Originally Posted by bse118
How do you come to the conclusion that "most elites are already spending a lot for upgrades?"

I won't ever buy stickers. I'll happily upgrade using the ones I earn from flying, but would never think about buying additional ones.

None of the domestic first class products on UA, DL, AA are worth paying anything for (outside of the NYC - SFO/LAX runs).
The fact that you do not has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not others do. For the record, both my wife and I have, and likely will continue to buy them when it makes sense.

Regards
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 12:46 pm
  #223  
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Originally Posted by cmd320
Except that the product worth paying stickers for is now long gone, having been replaced by something that is, one a rare good day, maybe on par with DL and UA. On a 1005 mile flight, why would I ever pay the Y fare, then buy $90 worth of stickers to maybe upgrade, when I can go to DL and purchase a guaranteed F fare for $60 more than AA is charging for Y? This is a scenario I run into very often.
DL is a dumb airline that keeps cutting ff benefits and instead of spending these money on their flyers they spend it on dumb TV commercials to brainwash consumers about how cool they are. So dumb.

Check out what they spend consumers' money on:
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 4:59 pm
  #224  
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Originally Posted by nk15
DL is a dumb airline that keeps cutting ff benefits and instead of spending these money on their flyers they spend it on dumb TV commercials to brainwash consumers about how cool they are. So dumb.

Check out what they spend consumers' money on:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDiClstYtuc
And how is your opinion on DL marketing in any way relevant? I don't really care how they choose to spend their money. If I can purchase their F product (superior to AA's in many ways now) cheaper than buying AA Y and stickers to get a shot at F, what would possess me to choose the latter option?
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Old Oct 3, 2015 | 5:43 pm
  #225  
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Originally Posted by cmd320
And how is your opinion on DL marketing in any way relevant? I don't really care how they choose to spend their money. If I can purchase their F product (superior to AA's in many ways now) cheaper than buying AA Y and stickers to get a shot at F, what would possess me to choose the latter option?
DL does not have a superior product, it is mostly their own propaganda and self-delusion because that's all they have going for them now. The prices you refer to are likely due to specific routes, such fluctuations will occur based on certain routes or time periods where one airline may be a bit cheaper than the others. So, yes, your individual experiences may be true but far from universal.
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