Speculation fun: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? Dropped? (consolidated)
Nov 19, 2014, 8:33 am
#76
Join Date: Jul 2008
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BOS-SNN as well
That same configuration was used on BOS-SNN on AA metal as well.
Back in 2005, I flew on AA0212 BOS-SNN on a domestic 757 and sat in 2B - the Eisenhower seats in the F portion sold as Y.
FlightMemory entry helped jog my memory ...
Back in 2005, I flew on AA0212 BOS-SNN on a domestic 757 and sat in 2B - the Eisenhower seats in the F portion sold as Y.
FlightMemory entry helped jog my memory ...
Nov 19, 2014, 9:46 am
#77
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,317
While I appreciate your tone I do have facts that back up my statement. Yea sure, on peak days those flights are full and peak hours are as well but off peak flights are not and as RDU is up gauged to the 737 for all flights you will see a reduction in flights. It's a large O&D market but there are many Midwest connections that can be handled over CLT faster and cheaper. Same with MIA.
Hey I'm an RDU native and through there frequently and would love for it to keep every flight and gain more, however, hubs will be adjusted and it makes since for CLT to handle more connections and let DFW connect people already in that region. I'm not a CLT hub fan at all but it's here to stay and handles connections quickly, easily, and cheaper than most other hubs.
Hey I'm an RDU native and through there frequently and would love for it to keep every flight and gain more, however, hubs will be adjusted and it makes since for CLT to handle more connections and let DFW connect people already in that region. I'm not a CLT hub fan at all but it's here to stay and handles connections quickly, easily, and cheaper than most other hubs.
Nov 19, 2014, 12:02 pm
#78
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We all know what happened to LAS after the HP-US merger
The PHX-RDU flight went away about 6 months after the US merger, as did PHX-BDL, and probably a few others. They added more frequencies for PHX-PHL/CLT and force travelers onto those to connect.
Nov 19, 2014, 3:19 pm
#79
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Dallas, Texas
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But to play along, look at this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Saturday DFW-RDU x4 (this is the typical schedule for Saturdays)
Sunday DFW-RDU x4 (one flight reduction)
Monday DFW-RDU x3 (two flight reduction)
Monday 12/1 x4 (one flight reduction)
These are not permanent but do pop on and off during the schedule, indicating in fact, the flights are not always full and will be adjusted.
The 737 is historically scheduled on and off this route as well because its mainly full only on the 5:40p DFW-RDU and the 6:25a return the following morning. The rest are S80s. So with the upguage to 737s in the future and the schedule already being adjusted, the logical conclusion is you will see cuts when there are an additional 80 seats a day added to the market.
I wouldn't count on seeing any A319s due to this being a premium heavy market with a fair amount of paid F.
Last edited by F&B767; Nov 19, 2014 at 4:10 pm
Nov 19, 2014, 4:32 pm
#80
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: 1 mile from RDU
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Speculation: RDU... [future plans and expansion?]
I won't add to the clt RDU argument.
I just want To be nostalgic about the early 90s AA hub when I could do non stops to Albany , Hartford, new paltz, Boston etc. . .
I just want To be nostalgic about the early 90s AA hub when I could do non stops to Albany , Hartford, new paltz, Boston etc. . .
Nov 19, 2014, 4:52 pm
#81
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Global
Posts: 5,998
[QUOTE=MOC991;23864002]I mainly mentioned tech and biopharma which do travel to their other locations, clients, and partners.
I will give you Tech and Biopharma, but, as a son of a full professor, I will still push back on any significant EDCU travel. Sure there is some, but, it is limited by the school year. And those that travel regularly are too few to matter.
I think it is a tough argument to say that $5k matters. Now we have to get into professional fields. I just dont see the hard data for the $5k difference.
But if it was so good, why bail on RDU? At the time AA had nothing around RDU. Now with CLT, RDU makes less sense as a focus. Yes, you will give up some share, but if you can funnel them to DFW, PHL, MIA and CLT (depending on destination), why boost RDU?
I guess what it comes down to for me, is, assuming limited dollars, do you invest in RDU given that CLT is so close, and PHL, NYC, MIA, DFW have all your bases covered.
I think you are saying yes, and I am saying no. (Despite the FT legacy, we can agree to disagree, respectfully, which I think we are.
)
I will give you Tech and Biopharma, but, as a son of a full professor, I will still push back on any significant EDCU travel. Sure there is some, but, it is limited by the school year. And those that travel regularly are too few to matter.
But if it was so good, why bail on RDU? At the time AA had nothing around RDU. Now with CLT, RDU makes less sense as a focus. Yes, you will give up some share, but if you can funnel them to DFW, PHL, MIA and CLT (depending on destination), why boost RDU?
...I think RDU and CLT along with the rest of the I-85 corridor feed off each other with CLT putting RDU on the map for companies based there and CLT getting put on the map because of tech companies in RDU. It is mutually beneficial.
...I'm not arguing that CLT or RDU is greater, and that CLT should be dehubbed in favor of RDU or something. This isn't CLT vs RDU, but the argument that the local O/D could drive to CLT had to be disputed. Most that fly AA/US are just going to connect in CLT if there is no direct because its cheaper than direct from CLT, or use a different airline. It is speculation on whether RDU should get more flights. I think the demographics favor it, which would not be a detriment to CLT.
...I'm not arguing that CLT or RDU is greater, and that CLT should be dehubbed in favor of RDU or something. This isn't CLT vs RDU, but the argument that the local O/D could drive to CLT had to be disputed. Most that fly AA/US are just going to connect in CLT if there is no direct because its cheaper than direct from CLT, or use a different airline. It is speculation on whether RDU should get more flights. I think the demographics favor it, which would not be a detriment to CLT.
I think you are saying yes, and I am saying no. (Despite the FT legacy, we can agree to disagree, respectfully, which I think we are.
)
Nov 19, 2014, 7:17 pm
#82
Join Date: Jul 2013
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At the least, they're not going to cut flights out of RDU based on population and economic growth there. RDU is also more central for a lot of people to drive to and fly out of. If AA cuts flights, it will be because DL stole their business on those routes which means the flights would still exist. You seem to be confusing CLT vs RDU even though you say you're talking about whether there should be more flights.
I'm not going to argue academics travelling. They aren't that significant because their business travel wouldn't compare to the contracts the big companies would have. You're using an anecdote to support a universal argument that all academics must not travel because your father didn't which is bad logic. Whether they would do more research or teach depends heavily on the university and their department. NCSU, UNC, and Duke are heavily research-focused. I listed reasons they would travel and not statistics. Out of thousands of faculty, a few hundred flying regularly would seem to be a possibility probably mostly in science/research-oriented departments.
$5K more in median income is pretty significant since that is almost purely discretionary income. Cost of living is a tad bit cheaper in parts of the RDU area also. If you figure groups of four out of 2 million people have just half, $2.5K discretionary income, that means 500,000 x $2,500 =$1.25 billion. That is understating it because there aren't that many households of four in Raleigh. Either way that is just to make a point that $5K in median over a large population like that is pretty significant especially if the cost of living isn't different. Leisure travel is inextricably linked to discretionary income.
I don't think AA has an incentive to boost it, but I think some other airline will just take their business like DL is doing if they don't.
I'm not going to argue academics travelling. They aren't that significant because their business travel wouldn't compare to the contracts the big companies would have. You're using an anecdote to support a universal argument that all academics must not travel because your father didn't which is bad logic. Whether they would do more research or teach depends heavily on the university and their department. NCSU, UNC, and Duke are heavily research-focused. I listed reasons they would travel and not statistics. Out of thousands of faculty, a few hundred flying regularly would seem to be a possibility probably mostly in science/research-oriented departments.
$5K more in median income is pretty significant since that is almost purely discretionary income. Cost of living is a tad bit cheaper in parts of the RDU area also. If you figure groups of four out of 2 million people have just half, $2.5K discretionary income, that means 500,000 x $2,500 =$1.25 billion. That is understating it because there aren't that many households of four in Raleigh. Either way that is just to make a point that $5K in median over a large population like that is pretty significant especially if the cost of living isn't different. Leisure travel is inextricably linked to discretionary income.
I don't think AA has an incentive to boost it, but I think some other airline will just take their business like DL is doing if they don't.
Nov 19, 2014, 7:28 pm
#83
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Global
Posts: 5,998
At the least, they're not going to cut flights out of RDU based on population and economic growth there. RDU is also more central for a lot of people to drive to and fly out of. If AA cuts flights, it will be because DL stole their business on those routes which means the flights would still exist. You seem to be confusing CLT vs RDU even though you say you're talking about whether there should be more flights.
I'm not going to argue academics travelling. They aren't that significant because their business travel wouldn't compare to the contracts the big companies would have. You're using an anecdote to support a universal argument that all academics must not travel because your father didn't which is bad logic. Whether they would do more research or teach depends heavily on the university and their department. NCSU, UNC, and Duke are heavily research-focused. I listed reasons they would travel and not statistics. Out of thousands of faculty, a few hundred flying regularly would seem to be a possibility probably mostly in science/research-oriented departments.
$5K more in median income is pretty significant since that is almost purely discretionary income. Cost of living is a tad bit cheaper in parts of the RDU area also. If you figure groups of four out of 2 million people have just half, $2.5K discretionary income, that means 500,000 x $2,500 =$1.25 billion. That is understating it because there aren't that many households of four in Raleigh. Either way that is just to make a point that $5K in median over a large population like that is pretty significant especially if the cost of living isn't different. Leisure travel is inextricably linked to discretionary income.
I don't think AA has an incentive to boost it, but I think some other airline will just take their business like DL is doing if they don't.
I'm not going to argue academics travelling. They aren't that significant because their business travel wouldn't compare to the contracts the big companies would have. You're using an anecdote to support a universal argument that all academics must not travel because your father didn't which is bad logic. Whether they would do more research or teach depends heavily on the university and their department. NCSU, UNC, and Duke are heavily research-focused. I listed reasons they would travel and not statistics. Out of thousands of faculty, a few hundred flying regularly would seem to be a possibility probably mostly in science/research-oriented departments.
$5K more in median income is pretty significant since that is almost purely discretionary income. Cost of living is a tad bit cheaper in parts of the RDU area also. If you figure groups of four out of 2 million people have just half, $2.5K discretionary income, that means 500,000 x $2,500 =$1.25 billion. That is understating it because there aren't that many households of four in Raleigh. Either way that is just to make a point that $5K in median over a large population like that is pretty significant especially if the cost of living isn't different. Leisure travel is inextricably linked to discretionary income.
I don't think AA has an incentive to boost it, but I think some other airline will just take their business like DL is doing if they don't.
Assuming any portion of the $5k difference will be spent on airfare is simply unfounded.
Nov 20, 2014, 8:15 am
#84
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Nov 20, 2014, 10:19 am
#85
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,317
If you have been on the flights then you know the number of connections to the midwest and some backtracking to places like MSY. Obviously a fair amount of that can more quickly and cheaply be handled over CLT, duh.
But to play along, look at this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Saturday DFW-RDU x4 (this is the typical schedule for Saturdays)
Sunday DFW-RDU x4 (one flight reduction)
Monday DFW-RDU x3 (two flight reduction)
Monday 12/1 x4 (one flight reduction)
These are not permanent but do pop on and off during the schedule, indicating in fact, the flights are not always full and will be adjusted.
The 737 is historically scheduled on and off this route as well because its mainly full only on the 5:40p DFW-RDU and the 6:25a return the following morning. The rest are S80s. So with the upguage to 737s in the future and the schedule already being adjusted, the logical conclusion is you will see cuts when there are an additional 80 seats a day added to the market.
I wouldn't count on seeing any A319s due to this being a premium heavy market with a fair amount of paid F.
But to play along, look at this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Saturday DFW-RDU x4 (this is the typical schedule for Saturdays)
Sunday DFW-RDU x4 (one flight reduction)
Monday DFW-RDU x3 (two flight reduction)
Monday 12/1 x4 (one flight reduction)
These are not permanent but do pop on and off during the schedule, indicating in fact, the flights are not always full and will be adjusted.
The 737 is historically scheduled on and off this route as well because its mainly full only on the 5:40p DFW-RDU and the 6:25a return the following morning. The rest are S80s. So with the upguage to 737s in the future and the schedule already being adjusted, the logical conclusion is you will see cuts when there are an additional 80 seats a day added to the market.
I wouldn't count on seeing any A319s due to this being a premium heavy market with a fair amount of paid F.
I appreciate you sharing your facts, it's just they aren't correct.
Nov 20, 2014, 1:21 pm
#86
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I love my home airport, but the only expansion I could see would be maybe restarted RDU-BOS, especially as their codeshare with B6 is over. Other than that, there are already a few non-AA hub flights (DCA, PIT and LHR) so I can't imagine another airport they'd expand their flying to. That seems to be Delta's job around here.
Nov 20, 2014, 2:35 pm
#87
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 49
Its important to remember that the HPdbaUSdbaAA team has a vast preference for routing almost all traffic through the hubs. PIT and LHR are the only RDU routes not to a AA/US hub currently. LHR is a special case related to the business there, and could always be flown by BA due to the AJV. PIT is flown by Transtates on the only at risk model in the US express system. I'd expect to see possible frequency/gauge changes in RDU, but for most part status quo. It won't become a new hub, CLT is too close and works hard to stay cheap to justify the heavy connection traffic, and its an important business market so won't see major reduction either.
Nov 20, 2014, 3:20 pm
#88
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Global
Posts: 5,998
Its important to remember that the HPdbaUSdbaAA team has a vast preference for routing almost all traffic through the hubs. PIT and LHR are the only RDU routes not to a AA/US hub currently. LHR is a special case related to the business there, and could always be flown by BA due to the AJV. PIT is flown by Transtates on the only at risk model in the US express system. I'd expect to see possible frequency/gauge changes in RDU, but for most part status quo. It won't become a new hub, CLT is too close and works hard to stay cheap to justify the heavy connection traffic, and its an important business market so won't see major reduction either.
There is no 'subsidy' paid by Glaxo (or as far as I can tell, anyone else) on this route. According to the Observer, there are many paid business class tickets on this route (Glaxo) almost daily. AA has called the route very profitable. So, it would make sense to keep this route for these reasons. (I believe I stated earlier it might move. I stand corrected.)
There does not appear to be any expansion plans for RDU airport overall. Most upgrades have been made, which is good. (See the RDU website for specifics.)
RDU is trying to get more international routes added to the airport, but it appears even the airport authority acknowledges it will be a long battle.
"... the path to securing new air service, particularly international service is a long one. For our successful San Francisco service, a domestic route, it took nearly a decade and international service takes that long, if not longer to acquire."
So if SF flight to a decade, and international takes 'that long, if not longer', it would seem the airport authority believes another international flight will not start until well into next decade.
Nov 20, 2014, 4:04 pm
#89
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: USA
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Posts: 1,573
Did some web diving....
There is no 'subsidy' paid by Glaxo (or as far as I can tell, anyone else) on this route. According to the Observer, there are many paid business class tickets on this route (Glaxo) almost daily. AA has called the route very profitable. So, it would make sense to keep this route for these reasons. (I believe I stated earlier it might move. I stand corrected.)
There is no 'subsidy' paid by Glaxo (or as far as I can tell, anyone else) on this route. According to the Observer, there are many paid business class tickets on this route (Glaxo) almost daily. AA has called the route very profitable. So, it would make sense to keep this route for these reasons. (I believe I stated earlier it might move. I stand corrected.)
Nov 20, 2014, 5:07 pm
#90
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Global
Posts: 5,998
There is no subsidy. There is a revenue guarantee from the Research Triangle Foundation, which is a group of companies. This means that if revenue falls below a certain amount, RTF will make up the difference. Several reports have indicated that they have not used the revenue guarantee for many years. Nevertheless, the existence of the revenue guarantee means that even if revenue drops on this flight, it likely is not going anywhere.
RDU is pledging only $2.1 mln for a flight to Germany/other parts of Europe - and that is mostly in free rent.... and I believe THAT requires a longer commitment.