sdsearch

Precise phrasing matters. RDU-LHR may not disappear, but will RDU-LHR on AA disappear?

Exactly. AA and BA have traded off flights before (including recently at LAX). BA is the one that flies lots of flights from LHR to non-AA hubs; RDU is the outlier.

F&B767

To add to this reasonable and on topic assessment...

4. If you look at DFW-RDU they are already starting to adjust the frequencies. I anticipate you see more flow over CLT for connections with the nonstop becoming more heavily O&D and connections that mostly make since from DFW. I would bet the nonstop reduces to four standard and three on off peak days.

5. Most likely see the same changes for RDU-MIA and it drops to twice daily. Nonstop becomes more O&D or connections that make sense from MIA with CLT picking up connections. A fair amount of people connect to north Florida and the southeast through MIA, this could be done done through CLT quicker.

MOC991

I meant RDU has the industry and potential for O/D from the way demographics are positioned. Since RDU has far less capacity and destinations, it obviously isn't up to the levels of O/D CLT can carry. If you don't think median income is a factor in making these kinds of decisions, there are quite a few businesses you'll need to correct since they use that as major factor before setting up in a city.

I used median income to differentiate the two because it is a valuable stat regardless of industries. Most of the tech-oriented jobs in CLT are support for the larger businesses there, but they are at 3.5% of jobs in CLT vs 5.3% of jobs in RDU. Engineering is also higher in RDU at 2.4% vs 1.5% in CLT. Production and Transportation are significantly higher % in CLT vs RDU. Management, Business, and Finance are roughly equal % in RDU vs CLT.

http://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast...e_20140627.htm

http://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast...h_20140522.htm

It is kind of arbitrary though for this topic. I don't think one is better than the other which is what you seem to be trying to say. I just think RDU definitely warrants more routes and can definitely support it based on the demographics and the time to travel there from other areas that are also underserved.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

However, increasing capacity at RDU when a hub sits a few hundred miles away is very expensive. I do not expect to see any direct routes, maybe on Eagle/Envoy.

MOC991

I agree that AA doesn't have the incentive to do it. The other airlines have a competitive opportunity to meet a need but lack the will. If AA leaves that opportunity open, they can and should pay the price for underserving RDU. Very few people drive from RDU to CLT, and US/AA sticks it to anybody actually flying out of CLT to discourage O/D traffic.

wetrat0

Obviously you've never lived in the Triangle, where there's way more than just Raleigh. In fact, the region's nickname "the Triangle" refers to the three (yeah, count 'em, three) distinct downtowns in the area, Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill. When I lived there nobody really cared about Raleigh-- it mostly consisted of state government offices. The interesting stuff is in Durham, Chapel Hill, or RTP.

Global321

(I shortened your comments just to keep the thread limited, not for any other reason.)

I think your demographics are making assumptions that are not necessarily true. Here is my 'argument':

You're making assumptions that higher income equates to travel. While the opposite is true at the lower end - fewer travelers, I don't know of any data that suggests higher income academics and pharma's travel at a high rate. In fact, it may be the opposite for all the academics - they can ONLY travel a few times a year.

If RDU is undeserved, I think it would have more flights from other airlines - especially AA de-hubbed it years ago.

I would theorize average income has gone up significantly in CLT in the last several years. Wells Fargo has been adding white collar jobs - not cutting in CLT since buying out Wachovia. And since Pillowtex shut down, there has been a downright boom in tech jobs.

Finally, whether Charlotte has 500 600 or 700 flights, it is still way more than RDU. And the number has been increasing steadily over the last several years. USdbaAA already has a significant international presence in CLT with the current USAIR flights. It would make more sense to build the international presence in CLT.

Alex_I

- Then you can also check what DL is doing at RDU - having more non-stop direct flights instead of funneling passengers through ATL which is not that far away either. Yes, while it is cheaper to shuttle folks through CLT, the direct routes will stay as long as an airline is making money.
Regardless what was said before the merger, CLT is clearly different from other AA hubs as it relies mainly on the connecting traffic. It will be fine as an Eagle/Envoy/Contractor hub to hop around south East Coast but not much beyond that. I expect the traffic through CLT to shrink in the near future starting with more internationals routes moved to the traditional AA hubs.

By the way, the second international flight mentioned by OP is RDU-YYZ by Air Canada that was operating for quite some time.

Fanjet

AA/US already fly nonstop from RDU to CLT/DCA/PHL/LGA/JFK/PIT/ORD/DFW/MIA/LAX and LHR. The only additions I could see would be PHX and BOS. And if they wanted to really take a risk, SFO. The new airline isn't just competeing with DL at RDU; but WN as well.

morrisunc

I think BOS is a sure thing - PHX isn't necessary - US tried it in the past and canceled.

jafrelin

Quick comment on academics travel. Many, many Duke and UNC faculty members are Exp. When I was there I averaged about 80k per year as a professor lots of people traveled more.

LovePrunes

OK, I'll play "let's pretend I'm an airline exec" with you!

i don't see what kinds of "adjustments" you see to RDU-DFW. At RDU's peak as a hub in the 90s, there were a max of six flights a day to DFW. I saw seven flights for a few weeks in one stat I looked at, that lasted less than 90 days. So they are at 5 flights a day for the rest of the schedule. Think it's been that for QUITE some time. I don't see the "adustment" you see. If you think it'll drop to THREE flights you are nuts. IMHO. RDU flights to DFW are constantly overbooked. no way they are losing 40% of their capacity when AA fliers can already go thru CLT and get AA miles.

I agree with you that SE connections thru CLT make more sense than thru MIA. I don't think many use MIA from RDU to connect to other SE cities though, that's the benefit of the merger since now we won't be forced to fly US or DL well kind of US, just we'll be getting AA benefits. MIA really isn't functioning as a SE connecting hub AT ALL. The current AA flights to MIA aren't driven for connections, so I disagree they'll cut out a flight to MIA since it's completely unrelated to CLT coming online.

MOC991

I mainly mentioned tech and biopharma which do travel to their other locations, clients, and partners. Academics at research universities do travel for research and conferences, often on weekends, summers, or semesters off, in addition to their own leisure travel, time permitting. Higher income would mean more discretionary income for leisure travel. Median income stats are from 2013 Projected Census Data: Charlotte CSA $50,465 vs Raleigh CSA $55,686.

It wasn't profitable 20 years ago in a completely different O/D and competitive environment. AA also took over some of PanAm's MIA operations. Southwest moved in when while AA was there in addition to competition from Eastern, US, and Delta for Southeast hubs. Midway took over as the hub operation. Midway went out of business, and Southwest is primarily leisure although that does suck some business away from potential AA or other alliance expansions. Jetblue competes directly with AA to JFK and flies to Boston. It is somewhat of a LCC base to be fair with quite a few nonstop Southwest and Jetblue flights. Legacy airlines also have no incentive to expand as long as they're profitable when competition is low on their current routes.

See first paragraph. It is just Census and BLS stats no theory. I think RDU and CLT along with the rest of the I-85 corridor feed off each other with CLT putting RDU on the map for companies based there and CLT getting put on the map because of tech companies in RDU. It is mutually beneficial.

I'm not arguing that CLT or RDU is greater, and that CLT should be dehubbed in favor of RDU or something. This isn't CLT vs RDU, but the argument that the local O/D could drive to CLT had to be disputed. Most that fly AA/US are just going to connect in CLT if there is no direct because its cheaper than direct from CLT, or use a different airline. It is speculation on whether RDU should get more flights. I think the demographics favor it, which would not be a detriment to CLT.

For domestic, there is already a good amount of connecting traffic that could be served with a one way to the Northwest and Silicon Valley areas. AA would compete with Jetlbue to BOS if they added that. For international, I think an Air Berlin flight would be an interesting proposition since they favor cheaper O/D airports and they could connect/codeshare on the same flights that BA(LHR AA) does. Also the city and airport are begging/offering incentives for more flights and another international one. I know Novozymes is out of Denmark and other companies have facilities in the north of Germany that DUS or TXL/BER would be closer to. Most multinationals are based around FRA and MUN though which does favor existing flights in CLT. The airports on the I-85 corridor can all exist together as the areas grow, but I think RDU can do more direct flights.

F&B767

While I appreciate your tone I do have facts that back up my statement. Yea sure, on peak days those flights are full and peak hours are as well but off peak flights are not and as RDU is up gauged to the 737 for all flights you will see a reduction in flights. It's a large O&D market but there are many Midwest connections that can be handled over CLT faster and cheaper. Same with MIA.

Hey I'm an RDU native and through there frequently and would love for it to keep every flight and gain more, however, hubs will be adjusted and it makes since for CLT to handle more connections and let DFW connect people already in that region. I'm not a CLT hub fan at all but it's here to stay and handles connections quickly, easily, and cheaper than most other hubs.

evanderm

There have also been some seasonal flights to CUN and now DL is also opening NAS.

NAS and YYZ have US CBP Pre-Clearance so arriving passengers are treated as if they were domestic. CUN and LHR are to my knowledge the only routes using the CBP facilities at RDU.