dayone

JetBlue just threw another log on this fire by announcing Mint on LAX-MIA.

Flying for Fun

I doubt AA codeshares on B6 will credit to AS.

James

chrisl137

Seriously. They could at least offer them on their transcons!!

Eastbay1K

The best logs that B6 has are Duraflame Logs. At least when AS throws a log, it comes from a real tree.

OhDoctor

i'm not pretending to be smarter than anyone else who crunches the numbers at AS, and maybe they're happy the way they're positioned; WN also seems content with a mediocre hard product, and driving sales through cheap fares, generous cancellation policies, and quirky staff. but considering that tourism to Alaska is up something like 40% over the last 10 years, and that (i am guessing) some sizable chunk of that traffic is coming from the LAX/SFO and NYC area, it would make sense to develop some kind of Mint-like product. again, B6 is a great comparison, because they do have a similar business model and uni-coastal route network, and they have absolutely killed it with Mint (expanding now not only to MIA but to London and the TATL market as well).

OhDoctor

i dunno. i had DL FO once, and that was it. i've never been upgraded into a lie-flat J on any airline. but i'lll happily pay $600 for NYC-SEA in Mint to make a special vacation even more memorable.

eponymous_coward

Their product in coach isn't actually worse than anyone else's, unless you simply MUST have an in-seat TV.

AS's traffic is primarily West Coast that doesn't travel transcon stage length, and is heaviest in markets where you don't have enough people willing to pay for a lie-flat product, like SEA/PDX/ANC/SAN/SJC- they're definitely not leading markets in the Bay Area and greater LA in the two biggest hubs (SFO and LAX). LAX is super-fragmented. SFO is stil just as dominated by UA as when VX was flying. AS is using a tweener strategy and taking on WN in terms of being relevant in MANY CA markets (which is not something VX ever did well), and trying to use their cost advantages to crawl to more market share. Premium transcon is not a cost advantage strategy for most of AS's network the same way it is in NYC for B6- it adds significant cost (less seats to sell, expensive equipment to maintain).

B6 is based in NYC. All of the airlines that fly premium transcon products now have NYC hubs (and aside from B6, they generally don't fly premium products outside of NYC-LAX/SFO or hub-hub travel). The one that didn't have an NYC hub (VX) never expanded the way they were supposed to in the late 00's, and eventually got bought out by another airline, that, when they got the chance to look at VX's internal revenue numbers and accounting, said "nah, we're good, no premium transcon".

I submit to you that what makes B6 tick is that it is based in the single largest population of millionaires in the United States.

Sometimes the most important thing you can do in your business is to say "no, we're not doing that just because the other guys are doing it".

OhDoctor

Most of your points are well taken, except the above, which is factually incorrect; there are almost twice as many millionaires living in Washington DC, for example, as opposed to NYC. And there are certainly enough jet-setting millionaires in the LA area if the idea is that this is the market that supports an airline like B6 (which is to me a silly contention). In fact, B6 thrives because for comparable Y fares, you get free WiFi, live TV, and more legroom than anyone else.

RAD_PDX

I'll happily pay $130 and take my 90%+ upgrade rate. If at the end of a special vacation, the Jet Blue flight is a memorable part of it, you need to travel to some more exciting places

eponymous_coward

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/new-...the-world.html

I’ll point out they actually left an airport in LA where they never really took off (LGB).

https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/13/j...-worse-at-lax/

Mint is a great performer for them because they’re in cities with high transcon usage (in their top 10 destinations) + lots of rich people.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John...tional_Airport

The thing is none of Seattle’s top 10 destinations are transcon.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat...tional_Airport

That makes a big difference in what works for AS and B6. Mint is a stupid idea if you’re primarily flying 2-4 hours. Huge pitch and lie flats don’t generate revenue premiums for short trips.

ashill

I think it’s pretty obvious that they’re happy with how they’re positioned on lie-flat seats.

WN doesn’t even have cheap fares these days. WN drives sales largely because they fly where people want to go and — wait for it — people like their product! You may not, and FTers in general may not, but there’s a very large market that does.

AK isn’t that big a fraction of AS’s network anymore and certainly not where their growth opportunities lie, and there’s no competitive pressure to bring lie-flat seats there. And I’m pretty sure (though I don’t know) that tourism doesn’t drive demand for lie-flat seats.

eponymous_coward

You mean like how AS has expanded service to Hawaii, which are transcon-length flights with nary a lie-flat to be seen?

OhDoctor

yeah, i was going to bring up that they're planning 150-200 weekly flights to hawaii (5-7 hours a pop), with every other airline in the market (DL, AA, HA, UA) flying lie flats on at least some of those routes.

eponymous_coward

HA is expanding service... with narrowbodies. All of the airlines you mention fly narrowbodies on at least some of their Hawaii routes, as you put it.

But yes, AS is DOOOOMED. People have been saying this for decades about not having a premium transcon service, so it must be true. Just like how WN has been doomed for fifty years...

WrightHI

No they don’t. HA on the A330 routes and UA on the HD 777 flights from SFO and LAX, but that’s it from the west coast.