[Speculation] Possibility of Lie-Flat Seats on Transcon Routes?
Feb 20, 2018, 11:11 pm
#31
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If AS does something like this, perhaps they reconfigure the 73Gs? They have a small fleet of them, some of which are hauling igloos of fish to and from Alaska. The plane has a ton of range, they need to be redone anyway and they'll fit with a long term 737 fleet (assuming AS eventually goes back to all 737s).
A 321N wouldn't be necessary; reconfigure those into the "normal" AS cabin, and send them on the long hauls or to Hawaii. The 321N should provide a boost of seats to the airports where the 900ER can't get out of (OGG/LIH). No reason AS couldn't do 12 or 16 mint-esque seats ahead of the overwing exit on the 73Gs and coach behind it.
This is all dependent on Alaska management recognizing they need to change to stay competitive, then deciding to spend the money on it. My guess is Alaska will probably repaint the fleet again instead.
Feb 20, 2018, 11:14 pm
#32
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If they wanted to go in this direction they could subfleet the existing A320s with VX F for all transcons and use the AS 737s for <5 hrs. Would just need to add an Airbus base in PDX and SEA. VX has a better F product than AS F, and a better Y product than AS Y. They would lose Y seats on a few routes but at least there would be a consistent premium product for transcon.
I speculate that there is some kind of calculus that B6 figured out with the A321s and number of flight attendants that made cheap Mint work for B6 and devastated the big3 with a price war. Perhaps AS is starting to figure that out.
I am actually fine with the existing AS plan, but not at the ridiculous prices they are selling F for.
I speculate that there is some kind of calculus that B6 figured out with the A321s and number of flight attendants that made cheap Mint work for B6 and devastated the big3 with a price war. Perhaps AS is starting to figure that out.
I am actually fine with the existing AS plan, but not at the ridiculous prices they are selling F for.
Feb 21, 2018, 12:13 am
#33
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Based in Seattle, SEA-JFK, Delta every time for me, I would welcome the competition though, even on shorter routes have been underwhelmed by Alaska.
Feb 21, 2018, 4:11 am
#34
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At some point AS management will have to face the reality that there is a market and it comes down to price: you have to charge less for AS F "standard recliner" than VX F "deep recliner" than lieflat. This is what VX failed to realize and why they had an noncompetitive product for JFK transcons and B6 A321 markets.
Feb 21, 2018, 8:34 am
#35
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I'd rather airlines admit mistakes than Smisek their way down the wrong path for years (that is, if this IS what's happening... it's unclear to me how much AS has rolled out their "we give you suckier F than the other guys but it's cheaper" model, and, like I said, it's all speculation until we hear from AS execs this is real). Time will indeed tell and this all may be blowing smoke. But I could SEE how this could happen.
.
If things aren't working out, fix it, do a deep dive into the analysis that led you astray, and move on.
Feb 21, 2018, 9:10 am
#36
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No. What would be shocking is Alaska management recognizing they need to change to stay competitive.
If AS does something like this, perhaps they reconfigure the 73Gs? They have a small fleet of them, some of which are hauling igloos of fish to and from Alaska. The plane has a ton of range, they need to be redone anyway and they'll fit with a long term 737 fleet (assuming AS eventually goes back to all 737s).
A 321N wouldn't be necessary; reconfigure those into the "normal" AS cabin, and send them on the long hauls or to Hawaii. The 321N should provide a boost of seats to the airports where the 900ER can't get out of (OGG/LIH). No reason AS couldn't do 12 or 16 mint-esque seats ahead of the overwing exit on the 73Gs and coach behind it.
This is all dependent on Alaska management recognizing they need to change to stay competitive, then deciding to spend the money on it. My guess is Alaska will probably repaint the fleet again instead.
If AS does something like this, perhaps they reconfigure the 73Gs? They have a small fleet of them, some of which are hauling igloos of fish to and from Alaska. The plane has a ton of range, they need to be redone anyway and they'll fit with a long term 737 fleet (assuming AS eventually goes back to all 737s).
A 321N wouldn't be necessary; reconfigure those into the "normal" AS cabin, and send them on the long hauls or to Hawaii. The 321N should provide a boost of seats to the airports where the 900ER can't get out of (OGG/LIH). No reason AS couldn't do 12 or 16 mint-esque seats ahead of the overwing exit on the 73Gs and coach behind it.
This is all dependent on Alaska management recognizing they need to change to stay competitive, then deciding to spend the money on it. My guess is Alaska will probably repaint the fleet again instead.
* VX doesn’t have a premium transcon config, all planes are the same.
Feb 21, 2018, 10:08 am
#37
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Didn't the last analyst call have AS execs admitting that RASM on ex-Virgin routes is diving off of a cliff? I wonder if their analysis assumed that wasn't going to happen. I suspect VX RASM was never too hot anyways (otherwise it wouldn't have taken years to make profits and the owners wouldn't have cashed out for 2.6 very large), but I can see how "we're removing all traces of the airline you liked and delivering cheaper for us but less nice things to you" isn't necessarily a way to get a revenue premium, especially in two markets (SFO and LAX) where a premium transcon product in certain markets is table stakes (unless you're WN, and frankly AS can't scale up in CA to be competitive with WN in their bread and butter, high frequency, short/midhaul network anytime soon).
That said, I would reconfigure the A321s to include a premium First product and an expanded Premium Economy product -- and hope for the best. Then, I would try to bring the AS niceness into every transaction with the customer (friendly agents, friendly FA's, friendly pilots). I might even bring back the free freshly baked cookies on longer coach flights. Bring back the "North of Expected" service. And hope for the best.
Feb 21, 2018, 10:16 am
#38
Join Date: Apr 2014
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This doesn't surprise me. I don't know who did their focus groups and market research, but I'm not surprised that RASM on ex-VX routes is falling off a cliff. The former VX loyalists on this board have made it patently clear that they did not like the changes. In the transcon markets, there are plenty of choices that have a much better product than AS.
That said, I would reconfigure the A321s to include a premium First product and an expanded Premium Economy product -- and hope for the best. Then, I would try to bring the AS niceness into every transaction with the customer (friendly agents, friendly FA's, friendly pilots). I might even bring back the free freshly baked cookies on longer coach flights. Bring back the "North of Expected" service. And hope for the best.
That said, I would reconfigure the A321s to include a premium First product and an expanded Premium Economy product -- and hope for the best. Then, I would try to bring the AS niceness into every transaction with the customer (friendly agents, friendly FA's, friendly pilots). I might even bring back the free freshly baked cookies on longer coach flights. Bring back the "North of Expected" service. And hope for the best.
Feb 21, 2018, 12:52 pm
#39
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They only have a total of 10 A321s on order. How many would they need for competitive service and when would they actually be able to get more if they order tomorrow? How much business will have been lost in the years before this service could actually be rolled out at scale? It does not really seem like a plausible, advisable solution at this point.
Feb 21, 2018, 1:04 pm
#40
Join Date: May 2003
Location: SFO, mostly
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Indeed this is relative. The VX F "deep recliner" is more competitive than the AS F "standard recliner". And it is available now and a step in the right direction. Then they can spend a few years to subfleet lieflat F for all of the transcon routes if they want to keep going.
At some point AS management will have to face the reality that there is a market and it comes down to price: you have to charge less for AS F "standard recliner" than VX F "deep recliner" than lieflat. This is what VX failed to realize and why they had an noncompetitive product for JFK transcons and B6 A321 markets.
At some point AS management will have to face the reality that there is a market and it comes down to price: you have to charge less for AS F "standard recliner" than VX F "deep recliner" than lieflat. This is what VX failed to realize and why they had an noncompetitive product for JFK transcons and B6 A321 markets.
Feb 21, 2018, 2:55 pm
#41
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And options for 30 more, as was mentioned. If they want to do an A321 dedicated transcon subfleet, they most certainly can using their order book. They'd have to be willing to keep A321s in the fleet longer term and would probably swap them for some of the A320/A319s coming off of lease that are doing ex-VX routes now. I would imagine the route network might go something like this:
SFO/SEA/LAX-DCA
SFO/LAX-JFK (not SEA, too low-yielding for AS)
SFO/LAX/SEA-EWR
SFO/LAX/SEA-BOS
If there are other AS markets that yield OK (significant paid F demand at the $$$ level)... well, maybe. Not sure there are that many. If there were there would have been a better case for a subfleet years ago.
I doubt IAD, BWI, SAN, SJC, PDX, ANC, etc would ever see these for longhaul unless it was on some shorthaul utilization flight (the same thing the other premium transcon operators do, send them to Florida out of NYC to get a few extra hours flying out of them every day). Basically they go into markets where a competitor is flying a premium transcon plane, in a scenario where you might have a prayer of making an 8/12 F premium transcon A321 plane work. (Note that B6 isn't flying SEA-FLL, I wouldn't expect to see them on Hawaii either).
Whether or not you'd get comp upgrades is ???. I imagine GGUs or miles+copay would be accepted as they are on AA/UA/DL.
But anyways... still speculation. I won't be shocked if this rumor doesn't pan out and is all hot air, but it's not ludicrous on the face of it.
Possible, as well as a 737-Max9 (or if AS wants to get wild, convert some orders to a 737-Max10, which I am sure Boeing would happily do for AS).
SFO/SEA/LAX-DCA
SFO/LAX-JFK (not SEA, too low-yielding for AS)
SFO/LAX/SEA-EWR
SFO/LAX/SEA-BOS
If there are other AS markets that yield OK (significant paid F demand at the $$$ level)... well, maybe. Not sure there are that many. If there were there would have been a better case for a subfleet years ago.
I doubt IAD, BWI, SAN, SJC, PDX, ANC, etc would ever see these for longhaul unless it was on some shorthaul utilization flight (the same thing the other premium transcon operators do, send them to Florida out of NYC to get a few extra hours flying out of them every day). Basically they go into markets where a competitor is flying a premium transcon plane, in a scenario where you might have a prayer of making an 8/12 F premium transcon A321 plane work. (Note that B6 isn't flying SEA-FLL, I wouldn't expect to see them on Hawaii either).
Whether or not you'd get comp upgrades is ???. I imagine GGUs or miles+copay would be accepted as they are on AA/UA/DL.
But anyways... still speculation. I won't be shocked if this rumor doesn't pan out and is all hot air, but it's not ludicrous on the face of it.
Possible, as well as a 737-Max9 (or if AS wants to get wild, convert some orders to a 737-Max10, which I am sure Boeing would happily do for AS).
Last edited by eponymous_coward; Feb 21, 2018 at 3:14 pm
Feb 21, 2018, 4:05 pm
#43
Join Date: Apr 2014
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And options for 30 more, as was mentioned. If they want to do an A321 dedicated transcon subfleet, they most certainly can using their order book.
Feb 21, 2018, 7:17 pm
#44
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Feb 21, 2018, 8:18 pm
#45
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So my birdies are telling me that the "new" combined First Class service is going to be announced soon, with d-day approaching for the VX family. They're going to have the first A321 "Alaska-ized" bird delivered in the first part of 2019 and they're going to wait to see how things do with the "enhanced" Alaska first seat before they move into upgauging the seats even more. The "new" seat seems to be a step below Copa's long-range 737 F/J seats.
I'd like to see AS raise the bar some in F.... just got off PDX-LAX and turned down the thai chicken salad for the 8th time this month.
I'd like to see AS raise the bar some in F.... just got off PDX-LAX and turned down the thai chicken salad for the 8th time this month.