YWG-RO

I can see TS A332s going to Rouge to eventually replace older 763s and for expansion, if allowed. The TS A333s can go to mainline as they are a similar age to existing. The TS A321s to either.

I think 787-10s for mainline as an eventual A333 replacement for European ops. This is 5-7 years away, and older A333s can be retired or sent to Rouge.

Perhaps by 2027 AC WB fleet:
Mainline
77W 19
77L 6
787-9 29 - maybe acquire 5-10 more
787-8 8
A333 20 - start transitioning to ACr or retire
787-10 30 on order to replace A333, some 77W, growth
Rouge
A332 16 - from TS, capacity increase
763ER 9-19 - depends on contract and age out, growth
A333 10-20 - from mainline
A321 LR / XLR 15-20 - gives AC the option of less capacity in case A333 is too much for Rouge

To summarize, my belief is that acquiring TS gives AC the opportunity to consolidate routes, re-allocate fleet and use MAX & A321 on thin routes.

Symmetre

Don't forget they operate a number of older A310s which really aren't any younger than the 767s. In fact, they may be older still.

Stranger

Not just older but also much less efficient. There are only very few left flying around for a reason.

Fiordland

I thought AC plan was to keep AirTransat as a separate banner. The question may be how many aircraft go from Rouge to AirTransat.

One viable option may in fact be the Rouge A321 (the new aircraft) go to AirTransat. The A319 and 767 stay in Rouge until they are retired from the fleet and the new replacement aircraft are added to the two other banners.

entropy

Those 767 don't *need* to be retired; at least not immediately. As a passenger, at least in the preferred seats or "J", they're relatively comfortable. And given how AC uses the 321 Rogues, there really aren't enough preferred seats to go around.

I think its an open question what AC decides to do with TS and Rogue, together.

If anything, I'd think Boeing would want to offer some cut-rate deals on 788's and they would probably be a good replacement for the longer-legged hauls, otherwise its pretty much 321X.

The Lev

I could see Rouge going to an all-Airbus narrowbody fleet with the 763's being replaced by A321XLR. It would help to standardize the product and make it easier for pilot management.

The 321 XLR aircraft would be able to handle almost all routes currently served by Rouge (YYZ-ATH a likely exception). Any outliers like ATH could be picked up by mainline or cancelled.

Stranger

I see the rationale. OTOH, they have consistently moved older airplanes to Rouge while getting new ones for AC. If they were to get 321XLRs, they could keep them at the mainline and use them as PY and Y like they are/were doing with the Max. While using them as J/Y domestically.

Thinking about this, they could move the Max to Rouge. :-) Isn't that where it belongs?

Fiordland

Yes.......

mj188

A couple more thoughts:
- I count 13 A320 and A321 aircraft added in 2019 (at least with 2019 dates on the register). That's gone a long way to bridging the Max shortages, but when the Max is back that would look to be a partial 763 replacement on domestic / US / sunspot routes.
- if you look at the 7 additional A330's in terms of capacity - 7x 292 seats is 2044. That replaces the mainline 763's (6x 211 = 1266), plus another 2.75 of Rouge's 763's (282 seats/ea.)
- between the two, that buys quite a bit of time to either keep picking up more used aircraft, or wait for new
- depending on how Transat is integrated, it could give lots of flexibility to how that capacity is deployed

I do agree, the A321LR or XLR has lots of potential. I could see it being operated by both mainline and Rouge / Transat. Could even see Rouge / Transat as all-A321 fleet, for two big reasons:
- Utilization. AC was running something like 3,000 hours per year (average) on the 320's. With 321LR's you could likely cycle 3 aircraft to run 2 daily overseas round trips plus a number of domestic runs. 20% more flight hours per day is like having 20% more aircraft for free. The 763 isn't as suitable for running a mix of YUL-NCE while also running YUL-YYG...
- Flexibility. A fair bit of the Rouge operation is built around summer / winter seasonality. The 763's might be effective for flying TATL in the summer, but harder to shift to Florida and Mexico markets, particularly on routes not originating in YYZ, YUL, or YVR.

The downside is that new aircraft are expensive, and if they're not well utilized in the spring / autumn shoulder seasons the economics might not favour buying new.

One way or another, I don't think we'll see it all shake out until Max compensation is figured out at the very least. And probably until Transat is somewhat sorted - I have to think that long-term the airline part of Transat, and the vacation part will be integrated differently.

YVR72

My prediction is that 767s and some of the oldest Transat wide-bodies will be replaced by new build 787s (already optioned).

1. Air Canada will create a sub-brand for “mainline” narrow-body domestic and transborder flying currently done by mainline, AC Express, Rouge and Transat.(737 and CR9). AC Express will be purely DH4 regional.
2. “Transat, by Air Canada” will operate a fleet of 321, 32L and 788/9 on leisure routes replacing mainline and Rouge on many transborder and international routes.
3. Air Canada mainline will operate “flag carrying” international routes and high yield/J-friendly domestic and transborder routes (YYZ, YUL, YYC, YVR, LAX, EWR) with 77L, 77W, 788/9, 332/3 and dare I suggest,, 77X.

EdmFlyBoi

New 787's are really pricey and the CapEx for Rouge doesn't make a huge amount of sense based on what they have done with Rouge historically. I would suggest that the only way more 787's come on board is if they get them at fire sale prices (which is a distinct possibility because of the likely Max compensation). The refurbished A330's are going to be in the fleet for a while - the oldest is just over 20 and if the 767's are an indication AC will fly them for at least 7-10 more years. The same is true for the 777's. The J seat is almost identical to the brand new J seats on BA (minus the doors) so it will remain a competitive J product for the entire life of the existing wide body fleet with likely little need to do any further refurbs on the wide bodies (except replacing the air mattresses). AC may add a few more wide bodies to mainline if the economy and demand continues to be strong, but it is likely that the wide body fleet is set for a while.

The narrow body fleet is going through its refresh as we speak with 44 further A220's to be delivered. First impressions across all airlines that are flying it is that it is a pretty fantastic aircraft. If Airbus builds the 500 then AC may order more. The Maxes are going to come back eventually which will mean a mainline narrow body fleet of A220/Max8/A321 - the 15 A321's may move over to Rouge but also are likely very good mainline birds. AC will be getting A321 Neos from Transat so it would not be surprising to see ongoing A321 acquisitions over time, either CEO's or NEO's.

The 767's and A310's from Rouge and Transat will be retired. The A330's from Transat will either remain in Transat configuration if the brand remains or AC will likely have to standardise the configuration across the Rouge brand if the Transat brand disappears (which would be my guess despite what AC says). It would seem that AC could acquire more A332/A333 for Rouge/Transat as there will be a ton (and I mean a ton) coming on the used market in the next 5 years. The CapEx on that would be much lower and the A332 is particular has the legs to fly anywhere Rouge/Transat presently go (and beyond that). The unknown is really the A321 - the NEO, including the LR/XLR, have been selling like hotcakes and could really be an excellent bird for transatlantic in the summer and Mexico/Caribbean in the winter (as been indicated by a few posters). It seems reasonably likely that Rouge/Transat become all Airbus unless the Maxes move over or Boeing announces the NMA (which seems highly unlikely as their plate is pretty full atm).

chriscol1

Great discussion and so much more detail than I could ever offer. Thanks.
The only thing I can offer is:
I have taken the Mainline 767 on YOW-LHR fairly regularly over 20+ years now. A few times in the last year, the FAs on that flight have talked about the route switching to a 787. Also, I just checked a random future date (May 20) and it is indeed showing a 787.
The FAs also said the 767 would be going to Rouge, but I have no confirmation for that statement.

Stranger

FA was making things up. The mainlinr kept the oldest ones, because there was no point in moving them to Rouge. They are going to get scrapped.

StuMcIlwain

The YOW-LHR route is switching to a 787 this spring, and the seasonal YOW-FRA flight is being operated by Lufthansa. All mainline 767s are supposed to be retired this spring, although they are trying to keep them around as long as possible due to the aircraft shortage, so that date may slide a bit.

I'm pretty sure that the remaining mainline 767s will be going to the desert when they are retired, not to Rouge or anyone else. They would keep them around at Air Canada longer if they had any life left in them, at least until the MAX is flying again, which is now likely next fall at the earliest.

EdmFlyBoi

FA’s are generally poor sources of information. As stated, the mainline 67’s are going to the scrapper. They are getting well past their “best before” date and would have already been scrapped if not for the Max grounding.