Air Canada Rouge 767 Retirements

Old Jan 26, 2020, 8:59 am
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by EdmFlyBoi
FA’s are generally poor sources of information. As stated, the mainline 67’s are going to the scrapper. They are getting well past their “best before” date and would have already been scrapped if not for the Max grounding.
No doubts the 767s are well past their BB date. I would personally scrap them .....a year or two ago. Not that this speaks to the worthiness of the plane itself, but one of them has literally had duct tape on the J wall recently.

FAs making things up and being poor sources of info? No argument here.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 11:17 am
  #32  
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Originally Posted by chriscol1
No doubts the 767s are well past their BB date. I would personally scrap them .....a year or two ago. Not that this speaks to the worthiness of the plane itself, but one of them has literally had duct tape on the J wall recently.
Didn't they plan to scrap them this year, until the Max issue came about?
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 12:18 pm
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While the 767s (and 320s) may have been planned to have one more one way flight to Arizona after their respective MAX came into service, that doesn't mean that the pre-deathmobile situation they wouldn't have had 1000+ cycles left on them.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 7:23 pm
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Originally Posted by EdmFlyBoi
It seems reasonably likely that Rouge/Transat become all Airbus unless the Maxes move over or Boeing announces the NMA (which seems highly unlikely as their plate is pretty full atm).
Yup. Especially with the recently announced return to the drawing board for the NMA, I think Rouge is going to need to retire the 767s well before Boeing gets the NMA out the door.
https://samchui.com/2020/01/24/boein...k-797-project/
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 7:56 pm
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Originally Posted by shadowspar
Yup. Especially with the recently announced return to the drawing board for the NMA, I think Rouge is going to need to retire the 767s well before Boeing gets the NMA out the door.
https://samchui.com/2020/01/24/boein...k-797-project/
There’s talk of a 767 with the GEnX for the freighter market - would be interesting to see if a passenger version comes online also.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 8:08 pm
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Lots of 777s coming off lease. Middle East, Asia. Maybe some used 77Ws in a Rouge HD config. Not my preference to fly in, but can be a low Capex cheap casm way to get people to holidays and park during the shoulder seasons.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 8:29 pm
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AC has publicly said that they will be exploring options re the Rouge 767 replacements early this decade. It doesn’t mean they need to be replaced in the next 2 years.

My guess is they will be replaced with a mix of A330s and A321s.
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 9:46 pm
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Originally Posted by AC7E7
AC has publicly said that they will be exploring options re the Rouge 767 replacements early this decade. It doesn’t mean they need to be replaced in the next 2 years.

My guess is they will be replaced with a mix of A330s and A321s.
My impression is that they are nor in great rush. Early this decade, as you say, might be two or three more years. At the end of the day, for Rouge, they get te job done. s to what replacement, this may well be still pretty much up in the air. There could be planes from AC, or if the purchase of Air Transat goes ahead, from them. although many of the Air Transat planes seem to be in need of even more urgent replacement.


There indeed could be some A330 and some A321. But I also could see a few/many AC 319s going to Rouge. As they get replaced at the mainline by A223s, with a larger capacity. And new.

The other thing: the AC 788s are not so many and a bit like orphans,
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Old Jan 26, 2020, 10:53 pm
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Note that the discussion was getting a bit off topic to general AC fleet strategy, Transat, etc, beyond just the 763 retirements, so I've attempted to move that discussion to the [url=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-canada-aeroplan/1956550-air-canada-master-fleet-changes-thread.html]master fleet changes thread

Originally Posted by entropy
Those 767 don't *need* to be retired; at least not immediately. As a passenger, at least in the preferred seats or "J", they're relatively comfortable. And given how AC uses the 321 Rogues, there really aren't enough preferred seats to go around.
Originally Posted by AC7E7
AC has publicly said that they will be exploring options re the Rouge 767 replacements early this decade. It doesn’t mean they need to be replaced in the next 2 years.
Nobody here is saying AC needs a bunch of new planes next week, but the oldest rouge 763 turns 30 in April. We don't know how many cycles or hours the airframe has on it, but based on when the mainline frames have been retired, it probably doesn't have a lot of life left in it, which means they need to be thinking about replacements now, or pretty soon.

Originally Posted by entropy
If anything, I'd think Boeing would want to offer some cut-rate deals on 788's and they would probably be a good replacement for the longer-legged hauls, otherwise its pretty much 321X.
The 788 has sold pretty poorly for a long time. It lacked commonality with the 789 and 78J and is more expensive than it should be given the capacity. There's speculation that Boeing has been losing money on 788s. There was a lot of chatter 2 years ago when AA placed an order for 20 788s that Boeing was going to clean up the differences between the -8 and the -9 and perhaps revitalize the -8, but Boeing doesn't appear to have talked a lot about these changes since then, and it certainly hasn't translated through to the 788 order book.

If Boeing is indeed able to get the costs down on the 788, I could see it being a decent fit to replace rouge 763s, and yeah, they could probably hand out decent deals and still make money, but I'm a bit skeptical just given the sales history on the 788.

Originally Posted by The Lev
I could see Rouge going to an all-Airbus narrowbody fleet with the 763's being replaced by A321XLR. It would help to standardize the product and make it easier for pilot management.

The 321 XLR aircraft would be able to handle almost all routes currently served by Rouge (YYZ-ATH a likely exception). Any outliers like ATH could be picked up by mainline or cancelled.
Originally Posted by Stranger
I see the rationale. OTOH, they have consistently moved older airplanes to Rouge while getting new ones for AC. If they were to get 321XLRs, they could keep them at the mainline and use them as PY and Y like they are/were doing with the Max. While using them as J/Y domestically.
Originally Posted by EdmFlyBoi
New 787's are really pricey and the CapEx for Rouge doesn't make a huge amount of sense based on what they have done with Rouge historically. I would suggest that the only way more 787's come on board is if they get them at fire sale prices (which is a distinct possibility because of the likely Max compensation). The refurbished A330's are going to be in the fleet for a while - the oldest is just over 20 and if the 767's are an indication AC will fly them for at least 7-10 more years. The same is true for the 777's. The J seat is almost identical to the brand new J seats on BA (minus the doors) so it will remain a competitive J product for the entire life of the existing wide body fleet with likely little need to do any further refurbs on the wide bodies (except replacing the air mattresses). AC may add a few more wide bodies to mainline if the economy and demand continues to be strong, but it is likely that the wide body fleet is set for a while.
I don't know that I agree with you guys about new planes. AC has procured brand new and very young used 321s for rouge. It's all about total cost of ownership. Buying used does lower capex up front, but also leads to higher opex throughout the life of the plane, and lower resale value (or, if you plane to run the planes to the end of their useful lives, just having to purchase another aircraft sooner). When it comes to the 321s, AC clearly decided that the total cost of ownership was most attractive on buying new/lightly used rather than older used planes.

So I wouldn't rule out new 321LR/XLR, new 787s, new 330neos, etc. Although I also wouldn't rule out finding more used 763s as a stopgap measure, or bringing used 330s in to rouge.

Originally Posted by EdmFlyBoi
There’s talk of a 767 with the GEnX for the freighter market - would be interesting to see if a passenger version comes online also.
This would be an interesting one in that it would provide a degree of commonality and continuity with the existing 763 fleet. Probably would depend on how cheap Boeing could make it, since just re-engining the plane without

Originally Posted by ericcheung
Lots of 777s coming off lease. Middle East, Asia. Maybe some used 77Ws in a Rouge HD config. Not my preference to fly in, but can be a low Capex cheap casm way to get people to holidays and park during the shoulder seasons.
77W in a rouge config? Seems like overkill (pushing the exit limit of 550 pax, maybe?). A 20-year-old 777-200 or 777-200ER, maybe, although even then it's probably a big increase in capacity, relative to the 763s.

Originally Posted by AC7E7
My guess is they will be replaced with a mix of A330s and A321s.
321ceos, neos, or would you be thinking LR/XLR?
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Old Jan 27, 2020, 7:29 am
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Also worth noting that used aircraft has a different purchase schedule than new. Air Canada is relatively flush with cash and credit and can move fast to pick up individual aircraft, or small fleets, when they show up on the market.

Already the ugly half sister, putting those one off frankencraft under the Rouge name makes sense.
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Old Jan 27, 2020, 7:44 am
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Originally Posted by RangerNS


Also worth noting that used aircraft has a different purchase schedule than new. Air Canada is relatively flush with cash and credit and can move fast to pick up individual aircraft, or small fleets, when they show up on the market.

Already the ugly half sister, putting those one off frankencraft under the Rouge name makes sense.
They have picked up some new build A321's for Rouge but they were CEO's rather than NEO's. The ones from WOW they picked up as WOW was in liquidation and jumped on what were probably quite favourable lease terms. All in all a likely low CapEx. A NEO order will have quite a wait as they are sold out for a while - although I am sure Airbus would be glad to have AC back into the fold in terms of orders as it has been a while since they have placed a substantial order directly with Airbus (the A220 was ordered from Bombardier). I suspect AC will likely see how the LR works out with Transat and then possibly place an order for more.

Boeing has created much greater commonality between the 788 and the other models but I find it unlikely that they would order more for Rouge. The present 788 configuration seems to work rather well for the thinner routes out of YOW and potentially YYC (if they choose to carry on with NRT out of YYC). AC has been running LHR from YYZ on 788 this winter (I have 2 flights coming up on 788's to LHR from YYZ). I don't think it's any more an orphan than the 77L is - it has its role and likely does it fairly well.

The Rouge replacement discussion is fascinating - they are going to have to think about replacing the A319's in the next 10 years as well (if they carry on with the brand which seems likely) as the majority are older than 20 years. One has to think they would go with a larger aircraft than the 319 to improve the CASM. I would be willing to bet on a large A321 order in the next 5 years.
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Old Jan 27, 2020, 10:16 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by EdmFlyBoi
The Rouge replacement discussion is fascinating - they are going to have to think about replacing the A319's in the next 10 years as well (if they carry on with the brand which seems likely) as the majority are older than 20 years. One has to think they would go with a larger aircraft than the 319 to improve the CASM. I would be willing to bet on a large A321 order in the next 5 years.
If they want to add capacity, the logical choice would be the 7M8. If they want to keep roughly the same passenger count, the A220-300 would be an obvious choice.
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Old Jan 27, 2020, 10:43 am
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Originally Posted by The Lev
If they want to add capacity, the logical choice would be the 7M8. If they want to keep roughly the same passenger count, the A220-300 would be an obvious choice.
And if they wanted even more capacity then some version of the 321ceo/neo, maybe XR or XLR, would also be a possibility. Also the rumored 225. This said, given the damaged reputation of the 7M8, surely Rouge would be a better home than AC for them...
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Old Jan 27, 2020, 11:09 am
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Of course this assumes a need for replacements. There must be some kind of strategy involved to keeping a certain number of frames that can be retired or returned to lessors if economic conditions change either in terms of fuel costs or demand. If a hard recession were to hit, I would see TS/Rouge flying as taking a big hit, so having the flexibility to get smaller without big hits would also be important. I suspect this, along with not knowing if Rouge would ultimately be successful was why the 763s were a perfect animal for the project. Until the Max 8 is sorted and the TS merger finalized, I suspect no major fleet decisions will be made aside from contracting additional interim lift or figuring out how to best extend the 320/remaining 763 mainline frames.
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Old Jan 27, 2020, 12:25 pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AC7E7 View Post
My guess is they will be replaced with a mix of A330s and A321s.
321ceos, neos, or would you be thinking LR/XLR?


I purposely did not specify which variant of A321 - glad you saw that
Honestly, I don’t know. My gut tells me they will continue to procure A321CEOs for Rouge due to lower acquisition cost.

I would not put it passed AC to rid themselves of the A321NEOs from Transat once that transaction is approved (and the MAX is back in service). It is just another variant they don’t need. I realize many here are going to pounce on that opinion, but we should consider:
  • The MAX will be back in service later this year. AC will not be changing their order to A321NEOs.
  • More A319s will be available to transfer to Rouge as more A220s are delivered.
  • We really don’t know what AC’s plans are for Transat. They may simply role their A330s into Rouge, and close Transat. I realize they have committed to keeping their HQ open, but they that can also change.
This brings me to the 767s at Rouge. Though Air Canada may acquire more A330s for mainline, they may also do the same for Rouge. However, considering AC will be (or is) in negotiation with Boeing for compensation due to the MAX grounding, they may agree to acquire more 787s at a significant discount. If the cost is low enough, it may be worthwhile to place them at Rouge.
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