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Update: Aimia accepts Air Canada, TD, CIBC & Visa revised $450-million Aeroplan bid

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Old Aug 21, 2018, 8:23 am
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Last edit by: yyznomad
For those of you interested only in the revised $450-million deal and related discussion, it starts on post 418:

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-canada-aeroplan/1926409-update-aimia-accepts-air-canada-td-cibc-visa-revised-450-million-aeroplan-bid-28.html#post30109427
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Update: Aimia accepts Air Canada, TD, CIBC & Visa revised $450-million Aeroplan bid

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Old Jul 25, 2018, 7:52 pm
  #121  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: YYC, Canada
Programs: AC 35k
Posts: 1,898
What will be interesting is what this means to AP members like me. I generate over 200k of AP earn a year (admittedly not a lot compared to people who who generate MILLIONS) and almost all of it is not on revenue Air Canada flights. In fact, I have a whopping two segment revenue total this year with AC and that's only because they successfully incited me with a 150% Aeroplan bonus. If I were YYZ-based this would be a very different story; however, being YYC-based, there is almost always a better option than AC for primarily trans-border and domestic fliers, if like me, you value your time and want comfortable aircraft with direct flights or flights with the least amount of hassle.

I rarely take AC because they either stuff me in a Q400 or CR9 when I can get a 737 or an E175 or they route me through YYZ for every other possible destination in NA. I suffer through these for award flights, though will book *A if possible. I stick with AP because it is so much easier to earn AP miles in Canada than any other FF currency.
I often take WestJet because they have so many direct flights both domestically and trans-border no one else offers.
I sometimes take United because I can earn AP and they have decent P fares so I can fly business.
I sometimes take Delta or Alaska because they have comfortable E175 aircraft to their hubs and I can clear US CBP in YYC meaning the connection in the U.S. hub is pretty easy and both airlines offer reasonable business class fares.

I actually value the Aeroplan status (not Altitude) because when I do book, I will often use market fares where the Diamond discount actually makes the domestic/trans-border legs decent value (in some cases I will pick over a standard award to avoid YQ and other surcharges). Question is, will Aeroplan Status disappear when Air Canada takes it over - since they actually want to reward FFs and not mileage accumulators?
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 7:54 pm
  #122  
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https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/28307225-post433.html
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 8:38 pm
  #123  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: YXE
Posts: 3,050
Originally Posted by YEG USER
If this deal goes ahead, I’d expect reward availability to vanish well ahead of current 2020 timeline. IIRC AC is obligated to set aside 8% of seats per route per month (not per specific flight per month) for Reward availability.


Why would that be a problem? AC doesn't have a 92% load factor. So AC simply assigns, to AP redemptions, the seats that are least likely to be sold for revenue. AP is basically, in so far as AC is concerned, a glorified way of giving away seats that would not otherwise be sold, at least partially monetizing such in the process.


If Air Canada/Group controls Aeroplan, the contract can likely be tossed immediately and replaced with something that works better for Air Canada/Group,
And why doesn't the current arrangement work? AC fills empty seats they could, according to their statistical models, never sell for revenue. Revenue Customers get on full planes and perceive that air travel is a scarce good worth paying for. AP actually receives, as revenue, and factored for the overall redemption factor, compensation that, net of surcharges, is *very* close to what actual deep-discount fares cost. And AP points redeemers get access to seats that most likely would otherwise fly unsold for very low prices without AC having to display such low fares in the GDS. Availability is so unpredictable and ticket terms so restrictive that business/frequent travelers could never really meaningfully substitute redemptions for actual revenue tickets.

although the fact that the deal is contingent between an agreement between Air Canada and the Visa/banks will likely mean that the other partners will likely insist on a minimum reward availability to make the program appealing to its customers.
People still collect AP points and use them. I have plenty of friends and family who, if not for AP points, would have never set foot on an AC aircraft in their 20s and 30s. Or ever tried the AC J product. Its a brand differentiator and lots of people, assuming identical flight prices and times, will put their butt on an AC plane instead of a WS plane simply to collect them.
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 8:41 pm
  #124  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: YXE
Posts: 3,050
Originally Posted by The Lev
  • AC winds Aeroplan down and merges it into its new program in 2020 with points exchanged 1:1
Why bother? The Aeroplan brand is valuable and well-recognized. Canadians have been familiar with it for the past 30 years. Altitude provides some exclusivity for top tier FFP's that AC probably doesn't want to roll out the perception of to the plebs. Building a new system and all the marketing, public relations, etc., would be very expensive. The status quo is far easier/cheaper, doesn't risk any disruption to customer or program loyalty, etc.
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 9:05 pm
  #125  
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: BKK/SIN/YYZ/YUL
Programs: DL, AC, Bonvoy, Accor, Hilton
Posts: 2,923
This is simply an asset purchase offer. It is not a repatriation of the FF program, nor anything else of the sort. AC would purchase some IP and protects its client base, which includes its most profitable customers.

Aimia could just declare bankruptcy after paying off as much of its liabilities as possible and stick Air Canada and the credit card companies with the negative fall out. The asset purchase will protect the airline and CC companies from this PR catastrophe especially with an election looming. No one wants to be the focus of an election (e.g. CC interest rates, lack of passenger protection rights etc.)

Some astute/sharp people have noted the absence of Amex. Aimia already announced its intent to start expanded travel agency services. Guess who has a travel agency network and footprint? Amex.

As an aside, as West Jet expands its international service, I expect that it would need to improve on its FF program. What better way to do so than with Amex.

Something tells me that Air Canada miscalculated. It waited as long as possible to purchase the Aimia IP, and that wait meant that someone else showed up as Aimia in desperation was about to give away the IP asset that AC wanted/needed. Praise AC all you want, but I think this is the direct reaction to AC realizing it needed the IP
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 9:54 pm
  #126  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: YTZ, YYZ, AMS
Programs: Platinum Zirconium in Life, aeroplan, FB, Avios, IHG
Posts: 603
Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer
Some astute/sharp people have noted the absence of Amex. Aimia already announced its intent to start expanded travel agency services. Guess who has a travel agency network and footprint? Amex.

As an aside, as West Jet expands its international service, I expect that it would need to improve on its FF program. What better way to do so than with Amex.
This is true. Now that a joint venture with Delta, WS may become a transfer partner with amex.
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 9:55 pm
  #127  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 201
Any thoughts from you more experienced folks as to what this might mean for transfers from hotel partners such as SPG/Marriott come 2020?
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 10:02 pm
  #128  
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Originally Posted by sameruval
Any thoughts from you more experienced folks as to what this might mean for transfers from hotel partners such as SPG/Marriott come 2020?
This is square one only and nothing more. As others have mentioned this is merely an offer by AC and its consortia to purchase Aeroplan and nothing concrete as to future transfers has yet been decided. There is lots of time to see how things play out.
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Old Jul 25, 2018, 10:05 pm
  #129  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Toronto
Programs: AC, UA, IHG, SPG, Carlson
Posts: 193
Originally Posted by CanuckFlyHigh
As a fan of pure capitalism, and survival of the fittest, this is absolutely brilliant. Let's remember this stock was at $20 at one point. They just bought it for $3.50 Amazing.
I love you! I want to marry you! Best comment of the year for me! Exactly my thoughts!
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 12:14 am
  #130  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: YXE
Posts: 3,050
Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer
This is simply an asset purchase offer. It is not a repatriation of the FF program, nor anything else of the sort. AC would purchase some IP and protects its client base, which includes its most profitable customers.

Aimia could just declare bankruptcy after paying off as much of its liabilities as possible and stick Air Canada and the credit card companies with the negative fall out.
And AC would be the first organization knocking on the bankruptcy trustees' door, trying to acquire the asset. Which the trustee basically would have to accept to protect the interests of the creditors. Basically AC is the only company that would actually be able to create or realize any value for the asset due to the deep integration between AC and AP that persists even to this day.

Its pretty obvious that Aimia knows that it would be implausible to realize any value from the assets in any other way. They know that the business they run is fundamentally unviable at the valuation that was 'paid' for the relationship with AC. And could not, and *did* not create any shareholder value.

Its unfortunate that a bunch of 'income trust' enthusiasts, often so-called DIY "retail investors" or little old ladies advised by brokers associated with the investment bank's sales/distributions network bought into AP's IPO which clearly was, in hindsight, at the top of a bubble in 'income trusts'. Where even value-less turds were achieving top dollar valuations. But the long-term plan never really was for AP to be truly and fully independent of AC.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 3:13 am
  #131  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,359
Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy
Question is, will Aeroplan Status disappear when Air Canada takes it over - since they actually want to reward FFs and not mileage accumulators?
The point of Air Canada's Aeroplan was never to reward frequent flyers!

If they wanted to reward their most loyal, frequent flyers they would offer better milage accumulation rates on their program compared to other *A partners. Why is it that I can book any non-domestic fare with AC and earn 100% milage when crediting the flight to programs like United's. Meanwhile with Aeroplan YMMV literally between 0-100%. Even worse, if you're flying a premium cabin with them like J, you'll only earn 150% milage. Yet if you credited that same flight to UA you would get your 200% mileage. If they wanted to reward frequent flyers why wouldn't they open their milage upgrade system to AC travellers travelling in virtually all fare classes like United? If they wanted to reward their most frequent travellers why would they charge for seat selection for many of their members if they aren't flying in Flex (or above)? Last but certainly not least, if AC wanted to reward their frequent travellers why in the world would they charge a fee for the privilege of booking seats on their metal but not charge it for booking on their competitor's metal?

Perhaps there was a time when Air Canada had a decent frequent flyer program called Aeroplan (i.e. in the mid 90's), when Canadian was breathing down their neck and they viewed their program as rewarding the loyalty of their fickle high flyers. Today all these programs are designed to earn the airlines as much money as possible from financial companies like AE and Visa.

Safe Travels,

James
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 3:52 am
  #132  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: YXE
Programs: Curb Your Enthusiasm, Fraggle Rock
Posts: 123
This tells us a lot about how Air Canada values its long-term relationships. SEMM take note.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 7:54 am
  #133  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC SE MM, Bonvoy Plat, Hilton G,Nexus, Amex MR Plat,IHG Plat
Posts: 4,428
So who would put in a competitive offer ? Amex ? OR Amex + RBC ? Capital One ? Capital One + Mastercard ? All of the above ? Or none ?
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 9:25 am
  #134  
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: YYG
Programs: airlines and hotels and rental cars - oh my!
Posts: 2,999
Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy
There's no guarantee Air Canada won't gut their FF program and move to a revenue based garbage system like SkyMiles
I hate to break it to you, but Air Canada's existing FF program is, in fact, a revenue-based garbage system. Ask around.

Originally Posted by Norcanair
This tells us a lot about how Air Canada values its long-term relationships. SEMM take note.
Indeed, it confirms what I've been saying for years. Air Canada couldn't care less about SEs or MMs or any FFs for that matter. Its "customers" only matter because they contribute to Calin's bonus.
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Old Jul 26, 2018, 9:32 am
  #135  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Toronto ON and Dunedin FL
Programs: Aeroplan
Posts: 57
Originally Posted by Low Roller
I'm guessing that Visa's ownership interest would not mean good things for Amex's future as an Aeroplan partner.
Originally Posted by imverge
Aeroplan should be on the phone with AMEX about NOW.
Sigh, now I have a new thing to worry about. Sitting on bunch of MR's currently waiting developments. Would not want to get stuck with them, although I guess I can move them over to AE until the deadline. Other redemption routes seem worthless to me, if not an airline. I would like to see Amex Canada step in and see what they can salvage. Being able to use the MR's for another reward program would be okay with me, like AAdvantage or SkyMiles.
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