The Lev

Boeing is reducing 737MAX production and there is speculation that grounding could last significantly longer than ,most have been expecting...

Boeing MAX production cut signals long grounding

• Airlines seeking interim aircraft leases of six months.
• At least one sees MAX grounding lasting until November.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/04/06/bo...ong-grounding/

bimmerdriver

Here is another update about the Ethiopian Airlines crash from Juan Brown:

Big (and unanswered) questions in this report are why did the pilots allow the airspeed to get so high and why did they apparently reengage the stabilizer trim. There is no way they could have avoided the crash due to these decisions.

canopus27

I'll bite.

Let's start with the speed. The report states:
Now whether or not the pilots correctly engaged the autothrottle (etc), it seems reasonable to me that the pilots had mentally managed the speed, and then they moved on to other things. Yes, of course they should be monitoring the actual speed all along - but within 20 seconds of setting the speed (to a reasonable number), the plane is trying to drive into the ground and the GPWS is going off.

Given the situation, it may not excuse but it does help to explain why the throttles were never reduced ... they had "set" the speed, and they were kinda busy just trying to keep the plane from actively diving into the ground.

And about re-engaging the stabilizer trim:
The first officer had already tried to manually adjust the trim and been unable to do so, and at 05:43:04 the captain says that the pitch is not enough. It's not stated in the report, but it seems obvious that the response to this interaction was that stabilizer trim cut-out was disengaged (aka, the trim was re-engaged). That does not seem in any way unreasonable to me .... and it helped a little. Then 9 seconds later the MCAS kicked in and killed them.

The more I read the report, the less fault I can find with the pilots.

bimmerdriver

@canopus27 I'm not trying to absolve Boeing, but I think an objective review of the entire situation will find that the pilots did not take the best possible actions.

canopus27

I understand, and I'm not claiming that the pilots did everything perfectly ... but I'm trying to evaluate their actions in context.

This video comes to mind:

WildcatYXU

It has been already discussed above. The Lev posted an excerpt from Bjorn Fehrms analysis in post # 2393
He also posted the link to the complete article at Leeham News.

bimmerdriver

I've watched the movie and that particular clip several times. There is no way for us to know what the outcome of UA1549 would have been with other pilots. I'm sure there would be a range of different outcomes, not all good, depending on who was flying the airplane. Obviously there is no way to know, but I think the passengers of UA1549 were very lucky Sullenberger and Skiles were at the controls.

I don't have the same feeling in the case of ET302. (Before I'm attacked for having this opinion, I have just as much right to have an opinion as anyone else.)

canopus27

@bimmerdriver, peace - You absolutely have a right to your opinion

For clarity, my point from that clip was less about the skills of the pilot(s) -- and more about the risks of second guessing after the fact, what the pilots had to do in real time.

We have far more information now than the ET302 pilots did in the 6 minutes they were airborne ... and we also don't have fear & adrenaline coursing through our veins and the noise of a stick shaker and ground proximity alerts distracting us. Yes, these are professional pilots ... but they are also humans, and before we judge whether their actions were flawed or not, we need to keep in mind what is reasonable to expect from a pilot in those circumstances.

bimmerdriver

My comment about having an opinion wasn't directed at you. I fully agree with you about armchair pilots second guessing real pilots. However, just like every other field of human endeavor, not all humans are equally able to do every task. In every graduating class, someone got the highest mark and someone got the lowest mark. Some fighter pilots win multiple dogfights and some die in their first. It's not reasonable to think that all pilots are equally skilled (or equally trained). We will never know if the outcome of ET302 would have been different with different pilots in the cockpit. All we can hope for is that the aircraft gets improved and all pilots get better training so they are better equipped to deal with this situation.

yulred

IMHO, the pilot issue is a red herring. The system design is the real issue. Even if this crew had somehow morphed into North Americans and saved the day, an MCAS-related accident like this would have, at best, been postponed.

Exceptional individual soldiers may be able to perform miracles even when armed with faulty guns, but it's generally a bad idea to send your army into the field with unreliable equipment. The odds will always be against them.

Nothing these pilots did or did not do changes the fact that the system design, in its current form, is flawed. And that Boeing, not the pilots or their responses, is responsible for exposing passengers to that.

I'm also not convinced that every single AC pilot would have handled this better. I can think of at least 4 with less than spotless records.

TheOnlyWayTo Fly

Agreed. What I find "interesting" is that (and obviously I could have missed it..) I have not seen ANY comment from a Canadian or American MAX pilot on experiencing similar difficulties since this plane has been flying. Are the NA aircraft better equipped with safety features than the 2 stricken 737's or, have the NA pilots been told to keep quiet on the subject by their respective companies. If this design issue is a root cause I cannot believe that there would have been zero reports of problems in Canada or the US with the approx 100 frames in service over here. Maybe it is what is NOT being said by pilot community that should raise concerns.....

yulred

Fiordland

There are reports of Sunwing (a Canadian airline) making an emergency landing of a Max aircraft due to the navigation systems acting up. Not certain if it is related or a different problem. I think there have been some reports out of the US as well. There are around 350-400 of these aircraft world wide. There may be differences with how pilots are trained and certified in Canada however I think it would be hard to make a statistical argument that the North American pilots are better prepared.

bimmerdriver

@yulred I completely disagree with your suggestion that the skills of a pilot are a red-herring. Pilots are humans and the reality is that humans play an often significant role in the outcome of abnormal situations. If you read what I said, I'm not bringing pilots into the discussion to absolve Boeing of culpability for the design of MCAS and I did not make a comparison with any particular group of pilots, be they AC or western or whatever, but pilot skills or lack thereof are a factor in many, if not most incidents and to suggest that pilot skill had nothing to do with this incident is pretty ridiculous.
@canopus27 Since you invoked Sullenberger, you have you read what he said about this incident? You can find his facebook post easily with google. Among other things, he says 200 hours of experience is, "a small fraction of the minimum in the U.S., and an absurdly low amount for someone in the cockpit of a jet airliner".

Jagboi

How do you propose a future pilot gets experience other than by actually flying?