jgoodm

What do you suppose would happen to Amex partnerships? International 2 for 1 program, Centurion Status, and MR to CO point transfers?

giggy

I think what will happen is MP will die. NONEpass will survive with the same crappy rules, but will have a new 100K level for plat. There will be a massive switch to AA from MP people because the new NONEpass will have no SWUs no CR1S no 500milers no saver awards etc. Also all the widebody transcons which we love, will be gone. Replaced with COs intl 757s and 737s This is going to be bad for everyone UA and Tilton doesnt give a rats a**

BDLORD

Wake me when this nightmare is over. I said this was going to happen a year ago.
See what they offer us FF before jumping off the ship. The water could be really cold.
I do love all the spec of what everyone thinks is going to happen, mostly negative isn't it?

kenhawk

I really hope the pilots stay strongly against the whole merger idea. I get the impression (from posts in the "Ask a Pilot" thread) that they are so digusted with Mr. Tilton and Company that they might sign off on any merger just to get rid of current management. That, to me, seems short sighted and dangerous. It also concerns me that customers will have no voice in what may happen. I am sure that the projected mergers are all destined to limit choices, increase pricing, and ultimately destroy what already amounts to horrible service. Our current government "leadership" appears to be clueless on the impact on consumers, which apparently is why the airlines are in a rush to get a deal done before November.

JackIsLost

Why shouldn't the pilots and other employees at UA be glad to rid of Tilton. Larry Kellner is a much better, more thoughtful and competent CEO and I would think that everyone should be excited about CO shaping up UA. The real (short-term, anyway) losers would appear to be CO and its employees. That's why the only way this merger will happen is if Delta/Northwest happens. Otherwise, there is little incentive for CO and Kellner and the board will not go forward with it.

JackIsLost

Also, I have never flown UA but Continental offers very good service to its passengers (except for BusinessFirst pax, who get GREAT service).

To those complaining about OnePass availability, it's just a simple fact for all airlines that availability is going to be limited in high demand markets and on peak days. You want to cash in your miles, you better be traveling on Tues or Wednes. The airlines are not the oil companies...they are not wading in a sea of cash. They have to take advantage of all the revenue opportunities they can to stay in business.

ExCrew

I like the idea of Continental as a merger partner if for no other reason than because they serve food (even a hot meal!) on flights longer than 3 hours! Old school!!!

kenhawk

You are assuming that the CO in-flight benefits and culture somehow trump United's.....it's nice to think the good parts of CO will prevail, but my negative opinion is that whatever is cheaper will prevail, and customers will have fewer choices, ultimately.

kenhawk

I agree that the CO management team is superior in every way to the current UA group. It's amazing to me that there is no charasmatic, energetic leadership at UA.

The point of my post, however, was that mergers limit consumer choices, raise prices, and ultimately end up with lower levels of service to consumers, employment for unions, etc. In other words, bad for all involved.

JackIsLost

I am sure this will not be a popular opinion here but airline ticket prices are too low, below what the free market should dictate. I know a lot of this is blame on LCCs but the truth is that those low prices are the free market working. The real problem occurred years back when Delta introduced SimpliFares, trying to squeeze out competition with artificially low fares that couldn't even cover their costs (and was a major reason for their need to go into bankruptcy). Delta has since back off on those destructive policies but their residual effects still remain...

Just because a merger results in higher prices doesn't necessarily mean it was evil or wrong or even bad for consumers. Indeed, the subsequent extension of a carrier network which results from two airlines joining that were in different alliances could allow consumers more choices.

Also, CO has been transitioning all of their aircraft with in-flight live TV in every seat (ala JetBlue) for most of the network (except RJs), which will be fully installed by start of 2009. There is still plenty of competition left to keep airlines improving product and offering competitive rates... indeed, if UA joins CO, they will likely see similar upgrades on their metal... airlines like to offer uniform product.

joejones

You just changed your opinion entirely in the time it took to type a period and a space. Is it the free market or isn't it?

I'm no airline finance expert, but I would say that intra-alliance mergers will not make the lowest fares any more expensive. At these fare levels, airlines are just filling empty seats to try to skim a few extra pennies on top of the $$$ they are earning from paid F and full-fare Y passengers. The only way I could see fares rising is if a merger really eliminated competition -- think a DL/US in the Southeast or a UA/DL in the Rockies -- but in most markets, there will be strong competition no matter what happens (particularly under the current popular merger scenarios) so there is no reason for fare warring not to continue, absent some sort of [illegal] anti-competitive agreements among the carriers.

JackIsLost

I wasn't changing my opinion in some bi-polar manner. What I meant was that the low fares get blamed on low-cost carriers all the time. It is true fares are lower due to them but that is not a bad thing. An airline lowering its prices so low it can't afford to stay in business IS a bad thing--for both the airline and consumers. This is what happened with Delta's SimpliFares and what helped to bring about its bankruptcy and the need for this merger with Northwest. That's all I meant to express.

sapguy

I would like to know on WHAT fact or facts are you basing your point that "I think what will happen is MP will die. NONEpass will survive with the same crappy rules"?

Even if this so-called merger is to be consumated, I would be willing to bet that the MP rules will prevail over the NonePass rules. The reason: UA/CO does not want any mass exodus to AA or anyone else by its elite MP members.

J.Edward

No facts what-so-ever; this crap is based mindless speculation and should be ignored.

M+ is not going anywhere.

OnePass is not going anywhere.

Both programs, in addition to their strong and weak points, have a devoted following and are both capable of generating revenue through partner sales (and in both cases the largest partner would seem to be Chase).

I suspect should consolidation occur both programs will continue to operate seperatly for the near term. Beyond that I suspect the FF programs might be rebranded into a single name, or concept, but again the core benefits for legacy members (that's you and me) will remain in some form.

fnothaft

I wouldn't say he changed his opinion as much as he just kind of misstated something.

If United and Continental brings free food to Transcons and more competent management, I'll be happy. As for the frequent flyer program, I'd say that seeing as many people see Mileage Plus as one of the strengths of United and OnePass as one of the weaknesses of Continental, they'd want to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses.

Thats just how I'd see it though. I mean, they may want to do whatever they can to make their operations as cheap as possible, but you know, they don't gain anything by shafting the people who buy the high margin tickets, because we've already established that that is where they make the most of their money. I mean, with the 3 class transcons and etc, I doubt that we'll see those go away because they make good money off of those. From a business standpoint, they make money off of those AND keep the morale of their frequent flyers up.

If they merge, they're merging in order to do better. Not do worse.

Also, with IAD, I sincerely doubt that you'd see any diversion of flow away from there because in addition to having the federal government there big time, you have people who work on government contracts coming in and out of the area, but Northern Virginia is also home to Tyson's Corner, the 12th biggest business district in the US (with companies like Freddie Mac, Gannet, SAIC, Capital One etc etc) and also has the Dulles technology corridor. Yes, it does lose traffic to DCA & BWI, but DCA has very limited flights and BWI is a total pain to get to.

This could all be totally irrelevant though, because its not certain at all as to whether they'll merge or not.