Renard

They wouldn't even start to combine FF programs until after receiving DOJ approval?? Even then there'd probably be a time when there would be reciprocal FF benefits before merging FF program?....I would guess. That would certainly give us at least time...should it happen.

PappaShacks

You've got to think the two would operate as separate airlines, at least until they can figure out how to merge the two. US/HP did this for almost two years, IIRC.

kaboom36

As a former Big 4 here myself, I have several friends working in CO engagement team here in Houston. The only thing I know, EY's TAS or D&T's MAS groups would have already performed their due diligence before any announcements is made.

There is no way miles would be worthless after the announcement. Don't worry about burning your miles right now.

spin88

very interesting posts, and good to have this discussion because (1) if as it looks like they will DE/NW merge, then this is going to happen and (2) CO's management team is smart enough (unlike UA's) to pay attention and they read forums like this.

I live in SF, so UA is my hub carrier, but I boycotted them for about 5 years and flew Alaska, and TWA, then when AA did a horrible job of integration, was Plat on CO for 5 years. Last year the balance shifted and I went back to UA for much of my flying. A few thoughts.

(1) CO was great on upgrades, but they took 757s off domestic routes and the replacement 737s have far fewer F seats, that plus charging a few hundread more for a F have made upgrades much harder to get, especially out of EWR where people will buy the seats.

(2) UA upgrades are easier to get on the important trans-cons (I take PS to NY) and the service is obvously much better on PS. CO F is far better than UA F.

(3) I end up with about as many upgraded legs on UA as CO (a few less on UA), but when I'm not upgraded I get E+ and there is no comparison. It is the key difference for me.

(4) UA blocks out the middle seats next to me on E+, CO fills them up.

(5) UA gives me international upgrades, CO does not.

(6) I have had much better luck with *A awards than getting anything from CO. All I can find in C from CO is Delta flights... UA is not great, but its far better than CO in my experience. I have 900K miles in my CO account I have not been able to use, and have used 600K from my UA account in the last two years...

(7) CO does not have a MM or now 2MM or 3MM status.

AA now gives free upgrades to ExPlat members, as does NW (to everyone) so I don't think a merged airline can get rid of both Free upgrades and E+, I would hope they keep both to insure loyalty during the upheaval in the transition. CO is smart, and knows how many of TWAs former FFs and High rev Passangers are not flying AA, they will hopefully not blow it like AA did.

This said, I expect that the merged airline will try to reduce award availability, perhaps raise redemption levels, cut the size of first class cabins, all "hidden" things CO is good at.

Re PS, I understand its a solid money maker for UA, I doubt CO would kill it, particularly since its a big draw for international passangers. CO is smart, and I would guess that UA out sells them 3 to 1 on the SFO-NYC and LAX-NYC markets. They have heavy compeition from AA on these flights, and I would expect a merged Delta to try to match at some point, so I Doubt CO kills PS.... that Said, Ted will not last for long.

Now if UA were to manage the transition (per press reports they will not) they would totally mess it up

just my two cents worth.

J.Edward

They even interact with us on a regular basis.

But with paid customers.

That's changed; they announced a MM program and are working now on the implementation of it.

Very insightful. ^

I'm not saying this is not the case but could someone shoot me a link to where UA has posted the specific results of p.s.'s financial performance?I'd guess if P.S. is financially viable it would stay, if not we'd see it changed. I hope that it is a money maker but have my (hopefully unfounded) doubts

cooperhs

I live in Chicago, where CO doesn't do a lot of good. I have lots of Amex MR points that have been stuck there since I can only use them on DL infrequently. Would it make sense to move them to CO immediately after the merger, before the combined CO/UA potentially leaves MR?

HeadInTheClouds

1K & Plat (NW, but mostly earned on CO) also here, and I agree with everything you posted except this.

For the hand that they were dealt, I think AA did a pretty good job integrating the TW purchase. I was in STL and lived through it first hand. There were some minor glitches, like the paper ticket requirement on codeshares for about six months, sure. But the integration of the FF programs, the transfer of miles, etc. all took place in a very organized fashion. AA was generous in granting the higher AA status levels (like EXP) to TW folks, and even gave TW club members three free years on lifetime memberships. Ops had a few bad days right at the transition point, but nothing that caused me lasting grief. No one in my circle of friends & associates in STL have any issue with AA, while I still know people who remember the SFH at UA in 2000 and refuse to set foot on them.

Given that 9/11 happened right in its wake, I give AA a lot of credit. AA had to make some tough decisions, and there are certainly some very public disagreements with how AA handled some of the internal issues at TW. But the TW people were professional, and I for one didn't ever feel the brunt of it as a passenger (EXP throughout). I am only speaking of things from a customer's point of view.

I find AA to be a very well-managed company, on par with CO. UA on the other hand is a total mess. Everyone is entitled to their perspectives from what they experienced during the AA/TW purchase, but I don't ever encounter any widespread or lasting negative sentiments whatsoever in STL. I cannot imagine what would happen were UA to manage a merger of this scale.

spin88

to answer a few questions:

No solid info on PS's profits other than being told by at least 10 flight attendants that its the best performing division in UA. I expect this is true, the planes are usually full, they run a lot of them (usually arround 10 per day SFO-JFK, more from LAX) and would not run so many if it were not profitable, they charge about $200 more than normal UA EWR or CO EWR fares on the route, and my best guess from checking the number of filled seats and held back seats is that they are selling C and F tickets for about 2/3 of the seats.

RE AA, I know a lot of STL folks who were glad when AA took over since their useless milage became part of AA's program (something I benifited from), my gripe was with upgrades. TWA gave them, and suddenly they were gone, and since AA did not give any and you had to earn them, it was to the back of the bus all of a sudden, and the planes had totally empty F classes. Given how bad Y was on TWA, everyone not in STL - who were flying for upgrades or Y-up and paying full fare ran away. You obviously did not have a choice, I live in SF and did, and went to CO.

AA then compounded the insult to me by (I think realizing the fleeing passangers) by instituting a Y-up program if you had status on them (I was Ex Plat at the time). Yet they did it by then putting in a new "refundable" fare class that was about $200 less than a full Y. I ran into this several times, buying tickets at the airport one way, etc, where I got no upgrade. Pure Thivery. (As noted above AA appears to have gotten Religion and is now giving comp upgrades to Ex Plat members, plus is still giving them the 500 upgrades to use for family members, if CO buys UA and messes it up, since AA will buy Alaska, I'll then swich back to AA )

Opporationally, I agree AA did a good job, but I was told one time by someone at AA that 2/3 of the former TWA FF elite members were no longer with AA, and if true, CO is smart enought to not make the same mistakes with the FF program, which is the (hopefull) point of this post.

J.Edward

Even more so than UA's TAPC or TATL flights?

...that seems suspect to me.

But moving on, if UA's filling the seats, especially at premium fares, than more power to them and may they continue to rake in the profits.

cesco.g

Better keep UA's 3-class concept. If they mishandle this one and intl. F is gone, it'll drive away some serious premium traffic - mine included.

lucky9876coins

LOL!^ As much as I love FA's, they're generally pretty good with creating rumors and passing them off as fact.

martusd

I would think the combined entity, should it take place would have flights like LH and BA do, some Int'l destinations get Y/C (more vacation flights) and some get Y/C/F(more business).

CApreppie

If it does happen, they should boot Tilton out with his much desired golden parachute. He is a horrible CEO! Kellner would make a much better boss for UA. CO is much better run than UA, although there FF program is not as generous.

UA_Flyer

News wire has reported that CO has approached AA for a preliminary talk. Also, CO and UA aren't in the final stages of negotiations by any means. CO and UA havn't yet signed a confidentiality agreement that would precede serious discussions.


Everything is just speculation at the moemnt!!!

kenhawk

So, if AA decides to dance with CO, where does that leave UA? From my perspective, current management has been so singularly focused on a merger that successfully managing a standalone UA would seem impossible.