Hello- I've been 1k for a while (currently sitting at 70K eqm's), and I've noticed it's been harder and harder to get upgraded on domestic flights. I typically fly to the east coast from SFO, usually connecting through Chicago.

I would say I get upgraded using the 500 mile e-certs only about 50% of the time. 1k clearly doesn't seem as meaningful as in the past- I used to have a 80% success rate.

I know there are Global Services who have higher priority, but I can't imagine that there are THAT many out there. Are companies now simply allowing first class tickets to be expensed again? Or are more rich people flying now? Sky marshalls? A lot of times I check first class 5 days before and it seems to be over half full already.

Who else is bumping me out of first class?

Hedge fund and private equity folks are buying full F tickets. My colleague did not get lifted using a HK-49 from DEN to LGA (both ways) last week for the first time ever and he is a 1k.

it isn't me, mine haven't been clearing until day of travel--if they clear at all. granted, i'm talking about an rj to iad more often than not, but i do wonder who's sitting in those seats.

it's an interesting question.

There's a term I haven't seen in a while!

HK-49 = CR-1

sadly... when you are located in a UA hub city, you are competing with a TON of 1K's (as well as GS) especially on a SFO-ORD route.

If you are flexible try flying on less busy days.

As an 1K out of LAX/SNA, my upgrade rate has been 100% (knock on wood). Yup, 100% and out of LAX no less. Maybe I am lucky, or maybe I pick the right dates. I have cleared on some of the toughest routes:

LAX-BOS/JFK/HNL/ORD/DEN-LAX

Of course, I also take advantage of neighboring airports like SNA, and I also request my upgrades immediately after I purchase my tickets. I've had 1K agents telling me that F is oversold an I would never clear. However, when I go to the airport the next day, they have a F bp waiting for me

Seems to be the case. From PHL, I'm finding it very hard to get upgrades with 500 milers to SFO so I usually don't give it much hopes. However, when using CR-1s I usually clear 48-72 hours no problem.

Ditto. I purchase tickets weeks ahead and agent tells me I'm waitlisted. I don't fly domestic often but the times I do, upgrades didn't clear until boarding, especially ORD-DEN leg.
BTW - I posted a similar question before this one and got several "not me, I always get upgraded when I book, ask or think about it" kind of replies. Glad to know, it's not just me. I know I'm out of sight but not out of my mind.

Cheers

In addition, the prevalence of discounted first class seats has increased. so now I can fly to the west coast on a confirmed A class ticket for only $50 more than the equivalent of the cheapest economy ticket plus the equivalent price of the 500-milers if I were to buy them. That's what I do, which means fewer last minute upgrades, I guess.

But I also agree that when I do use the 500 milers it is much more difficult to snag an upgrade than in the past.

SFO has always been quite crazy when it comes to 1K people fighting for seats.... Considering the large number of consultants that are flying east and holding 1K status, plus all the people willing to spend more money, I am not surprised this is the case...

As more and more people find opportunities or ways to become 1K, plus discounted First, it will be harder to clear. Why give an F seat free if they can at least sell it a few hundred more than an economy seat and profit? (and I can't say its wrong in my opinion...)

Thanks for all the answers thus far. I've pretty much given up on the 100 hour rule for early confirmation using 500 mile cert upgrades, and when the upgrade does happen, it's usually the day of (though I've been surprised every now and then).

Typically when I sit in First Class, i'll chat with my seatmate, and often times i'm not sitting next to high UA status folks, so there's gotta be something else going on.

I have noticed this year that whenever my upgrade does not clear at the 100 hour window, the number of available seats for sale in coach is somewhere between 0 and 6. For example, last week between IAD and BOS, the 757 seating map show 19 open seats in first and nothing was available in coach. My upgrade didn't clear until a few hours before flight time. This pattern has occurred at least three or four other times this year - i.e. tons of empty seats in first but nothing left in coach - the upgrade then clears a few hours before flight time. I also note that if Orbitz or UAL or Expedia allows a coach class booking at a high price (but not at the same price as first class) the seat map only shows first class availability.

I recently booked a RT trip that included SJC-DEN-SJC as part of it. (Cheap L ticket.) I had to change my return a few days before the trip, but because the SJC-DEN portion fell on Memorial Day, the change fee would have cost something like $600. I decided to dump the second half of the ticket and buy a one way ticket as my return. Coach was $400 and First was $430. I happily paid the extra $30 for the EQM/mileage bonus and probably unhappily prevented someone else from using up e500s.

FWIW, I've had very little difficulty get even e500s to clear. CR-1s usually clear at booking (or I try a different routing).

I used to often let e500s expire for the miles (I had plenty of CR-1s), but recently used a bunch (before one member of the secret society got UA to reverse its policy) without any problems.

Of course, I typically use e500s on widebodies and 752s. On 319s and 320s, it can be difficult.

I believe it's HK-49 = CR-1 - Hawaii (for non-residents)

I don't even try using e-500s any more, except for intra-California trips.

Fortunately for you, there's not nearly the competition out of LAX.