From ORD-LAX/SFO/SMF I have 100% upgrade success the last 12 months

I think a lot of it might have to do with how cheap some of the QUPs are, I often just buy a QUP when I'm on a flight where it looks like I might not clear. For some routes, I find that the cost is not really that bad...

How do you define cheap?

I now fly weekly between SFO and PHL - out on Sunday and back on Thursday. My upgrades have come through about 30% of the time - even on Y and B fares. Yes, I'm sitting in the back. Those tiny A319s with only 8 FC seats don't help. It sounds like you're having better luck than I.

It depends highly on the routes. As a 1P, I had my e500s clear at the 72-hour mark for ORD/PDX last week (now if UA could just get them posted more quickly, since the outbound flight gave me the miles for the next batch but they didn't post so I had to buy a pack). I had an A ticket ORD-SEA-SFO-ORD a couple weeks ago, but we had empty seats up front on ORD-SEA (757).

I've been 1K for about 3 years now, and I fly between DEN and SNA a lot. So far this year I've been up front for every flight that had an F cabin. Last year, I was hitting about 80%, so if anything, I've seen a modest improvement.

I have a good record out of IAH, and so does the other 1k here

.....

This one really made me laugh. Thanks harry ^

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Maybe an HK-MP5 would've worked. Ohmygod, did I just say that?

Maybe I've just been lucky but all my upgrades out of HNL have cleared in the past three years. I only use CR1s rather than chance that 100 hour window for 500 mile certs.

I have six trips scheduled between now and the end of August from HNL to the East Coast and all segments have cleared except for one HNL-ORD but I'm pretty sure it will clear.

The only upgrades that haven't cleared are the ones on TED.

It's funny that you mention HNL, because I'm seriously worried about my upgrade chances to/from there in July. I have been very happy with my domestic upgrade percentage, only failing one rather meaningless ORD-CVG in the past three years.

However I booked LAX-HNL, noon departure, and it is showing F3 more than 1 month away. Similarly the 777 ORD-HNL is now F6. Both are waitlisted with CR1.

Althought QUPs have been going up and up, and in some markets, removed completely (EWR-PHX).

I've seen F0 and still cleared

I've been a 1k flyer for several years. Previously, I've been able to upgrade (domestically) about 90% of the time. Over the past couple of years, my success rate is <50%. There has been no change in my ticket buying pattern (usually a week in advance), nor request for upgrade (at time of ticketing).

I noticed the decline in success with United's offers to other passenger to purchase an upgrade to 1st class for $XXX (at check in). I'm assuming that on each United flight, a couple of passengers will pay for the upgrade. This makes it very difficult to obtain an upgrade on 737's and 319's (with 8 First class seats). In fact, I just assume that I will not be upgraded on these flights.

A couple of weeks ago, I was shocked when an upgrade went through (OAK/DEN on a 737). It turned out I was the first to submit an upgrade (using CR1), and was able to select any of the 8 first class seats. Of course, this was too good to be true. My flight was cancelled and I flew out of SFO (middle seat).

If I want a decent chance to upgrade, I will book my flights on 757's, 767's. 320's are also problematic.