It's funny that you mention HNL, because I'm seriously worried about my upgrade chances to/from there in July. I have been very happy with my domestic upgrade percentage, only failing one rather meaningless ORD-CVG in the past three years.

However I booked LAX-HNL, noon departure, and it is showing F3 more than 1 month away. Similarly the 777 ORD-HNL is now F6. Both are waitlisted with CR1.