Thanks for all the answers thus far. I've pretty much given up on the 100 hour rule for early confirmation using 500 mile cert upgrades, and when the upgrade does happen, it's usually the day of (though I've been surprised every now and then).

Typically when I sit in First Class, i'll chat with my seatmate, and often times i'm not sitting next to high UA status folks, so there's gotta be something else going on.