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1K Population in 2024--Higher or Lower than 2023

1K Population in 2024--Higher or Lower than 2023

Old Jan 5, 2024, 4:39 pm
  #1  
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1K Population in 2024--Higher or Lower than 2023

Genuine question. Would be interested to know what the forum thinks.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 4:43 pm
  #2  
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We will never know. We don't know the 2023 number and will not know the 2024 numbers.

Additional part of the sense if too many is the service levels provided by UA, UA controls the upgrade space, the size and quality of the support staff. There could be more 1K but if support levels were increase (not likely) it may seem like things had improved.

The requirements for 2024 had increase but so had the fares and that does not seem to have been a barrier for many.

But the population of FT and some of the other internet groups are fairly unique and not very representative of the real world.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 5:04 pm
  #3  
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Originally Posted by flyformiles
Genuine question. Would be interested to know what the forum thinks.

To some extent, the number itself doesnt really matter. Last year was the first year that United truly rewarded dollars over time: how much you pay rather than how many miles you fly. The number could be the same; however, youd expect fewer 1ks actually flying. So by that criterion, the effective number should drop.

The other imponderable is the number gifted 1k status, which is something none of us knows.

So, with all that background, the actual figure is a very large number, which this year will drop to a slightly lower very large number.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 5:19 pm
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United is unlikely to ever divulge such data, at least not in any granularity.

​​​​​​If OP is trying to use the data to gauge overall upgrade probability, even if the elite population is disclosed, still a crap shoot, as there are a lot of actors to consider.

A recent trend: airlines such as United have been mastering the art of upsell. You could be a GS, you could have "Chairman" status, but you may still be sitting in the back.

For example, just flew LAX to SFO, every single GS preboarded sat in economy; 1K preboarders, only 2 people settled in F, plus another pax in F during preboarding was in a pilot uniform.

If you want to sit up front, especially on domestic rights, the common advice here is buy F.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 5:21 pm
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The only thing in the public domain about elite numbers are Deltas comments (I think that Diamonds have doubled) but they made it considerably easier in COVID due to rollovers. They also have a unique lounge problem due to the Amex partnership.

UAs only public comment is that they are keeping the thresholds unchanged for this year. I think they are trying to imply that they are comfortable with the numbers whatever that may mean.

UA controls the taps so the CPU and PZ/PN space will simply go where they like regardless of the numbers. Like many I suppose my experience seems to be that when flying from hubs half the plane is 1K whereas from outstations I might be the only one.

Long winded way of saying no one knows and it probably doesnt even matter anyway.
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rather_be_on_a_griffin is online now  
Old Jan 5, 2024, 5:27 pm
  #6  
 
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Originally Posted by Repooc17
United is unlikely to ever divulge such data, at least not in any granularity.

​​​​​​If OP is trying to use the data to gauge overall upgrade probability, even if the elite population is disclosed, still a crap shoot, as there are a lot of actors to consider.

A recent trend: airlines such as United have been mastering the art of upsell. You could be a GS, you could have "Chairman" status, but you may still be sitting in the back.

For example, just flew LAX to SFO, every single GS preboarded sat in economy; 1K preboarders, only 2 people settled in F, plus another pax in F during preboarding was in a pilot uniform.

If you want to sit up front, especially on domestic rights, the common advice here is buy F.
This is the truth. I am a 30-year 1K (lifetime now) and things have never been worse for upgrades. Buy-ups have been pretty good for me though, and I've found some fantastic discount international biz cabin fares on other carriers. I believe that the UG rate for 1Ks can only get worse as UA gets better at monetizing open premium cabin seats.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 6:44 pm
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Originally Posted by Repooc17
United is unlikely to ever divulge such data, at least not in any granularity.

​​​​​​If OP is trying to use the data to gauge overall upgrade probability, even if the elite population is disclosed, still a crap shoot, as there are a lot of actors to consider.
Originally Posted by rather_be_on_a_griffin
UA controls the taps so the CPU and PZ/PN space will simply go where they like regardless of the numbers. Like many I suppose my experience seems to be that when flying from hubs half the plane is 1K whereas from outstations I might be the only one.
Originally Posted by zombietooth
I believe that the UG rate for 1Ks can only get worse as UA gets better at monetizing open premium cabin seats.
Lets not make this a discussion about upgrades maybe? The OPs question was a simple one - do we think there are less 1Ks in coming elite year than prior. There was no imputation that this was about upgrades or indeed why it was being asked.

For now, answers would be purely speculative, but over time there may be signals and surrogates that suggest more, similar or less 1Ks. While for sure there are many 1Ks who previously qualified on miles and segments that will no longer make 1K based on the high spend limit, there will also be those who previously wouldn't have qualified who might do so with two J trips. And also what we don't know is whether UA will decide to modulate the number of 1Ks to any threshold it wants (by comping people who did not meet the criteria to 1K and 1Ks to GS). I think we will need few months after February to have a better idea.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 7:12 pm
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Originally Posted by ani90
For now, answers would be purely speculative, but over time there may be signals and surrogates that suggest more, similar or less 1Ks. While for sure there are many 1Ks who previously qualified on miles and segments that will no longer make 1K based on the high spend limit, there will also be those who previously wouldn't have qualified who might do so with two J trips. And also what we don't know is whether UA will decide to modulate the number of 1Ks to any threshold it wants (by comping people who did not meet the criteria to 1K and 1Ks to GS). I think we will need few months after February to have a better idea.
My nephew was a very infrequent flyer until his company sent him on several trips in Y to China, mostly earlier in the year. He got a GS invite for 63K in spend and 10 segments! He's come to me for advice about how to UG, etc. but only gets 2 weeks off per year, so it's really difficult for him to get an UG.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 7:42 pm
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For idle speculation... We won't truly have observations until 2/1. So far my flights this year (I've met the 4/4 requirement already and am less than 36 hours from my next 2) I'd say it's about the same domestically, perhaps slightly surprised but I'm inclined to call that "beginning of the year inertia" more than a sign of 1ks generally

Observations based on surge (or lack thereof).for preboarding more than anything else.
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Old Jan 5, 2024, 8:02 pm
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Originally Posted by Repooc17
.For example, just flew LAX to SFO, every single GS preboarded sat in economy; 1K preboarders, only 2 people settled in F, plus another pax in F during preboarding was in a pilot uniform.

If you want to sit up front, especially on domestic rights, the common advice here is buy F.
This. While I dont fly as much as I used to, when I do, I sit up front, because I pay for it. Im done with the upgrade fight.
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Old Jan 6, 2024, 11:25 am
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Way of the Dodo - 2024 Edition...post herd thinning?

Mods - feel free to move this if you feel that it is better under the previous threads that are similar, but since there was so much wishful thinking about "thinning of the herd" for 2024 - I wonder what the new year brings and if any better than last year.

My DEN-OGG the other day, 1K with PP had me dying at #6 on the list - started the check-in at #9 with something like 28/32 booked..... I think that might have been the lowest on the list that I have been on that flight in some time......

When I boarded - easily about 20+ 1k...dont recall seeing too many GS

-m
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Old Jan 6, 2024, 11:33 am
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Haha, I was 9th with PlusPoints New Years Day from MSP-ORD (post Sunday Night Football - I saw a lot of NBC folks in the United Club). No joke, over 20 people boarded with 1K

Ive got ORD-SFO-HNL at the end of the month, cant wait to see how far down I am on the list
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Old Jan 6, 2024, 11:36 am
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Not that theres anything wrong with starting this thread now, but I think any real changes, if any, that occur w/r/t domestic upgrades will take place as of Feb 1. January is always a tough time for upgraders, between newly minted elites, those who are about to lose their status, and winter holiday travel.
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Old Jan 6, 2024, 12:04 pm
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Originally Posted by mfirst
Mods - feel free to move this if you feel that it is better under the previous threads that are similar, but since there was so much wishful thinking about "thinning of the herd" for 2024 - I wonder what the new year brings and if any better than last year.

My DEN-OGG the other day, 1K with PP had me dying at #6 on the list - started the check-in at #9 with something like 28/32 booked..... I think that might have been the lowest on the list that I have been on that flight in some time......

When I boarded - easily about 20+ 1k...
What is the relevance of this thread, or the examples provided, when any herd thinning won't be until February?
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Old Jan 6, 2024, 12:07 pm
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mduell - my bad....yes, I should have known better about the Feb start date.... was just taken back by how far down I was on the list for a flight TO a vacation destination at a time that I thought most people would be leaving - not coming.....

-m
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