Originally Posted by
Repooc17
United is unlikely to ever divulge such data, at least not in any granularity.
If OP is trying to use the data to gauge overall upgrade probability, even if the elite population is disclosed, still a crap shoot, as there are a lot of actors to consider.
Originally Posted by
rather_be_on_a_griffin
UA controls the taps so the CPU and PZ/PN space will simply go where they like regardless of the numbers. Like many I suppose my experience seems to be that when flying from hubs half the plane is 1K whereas from outstations I might be the only one.
Originally Posted by
zombietooth
I believe that the UG rate for 1Ks can only get worse as UA gets better at monetizing open premium cabin seats.
Lets not make this a discussion about upgrades maybe? The OPs question was a simple one - do we think there are less 1Ks in coming elite year than prior. There was no imputation that this was about upgrades or indeed why it was being asked.
For now, answers would be purely speculative, but over time there may be signals and surrogates that suggest more, similar or less 1Ks. While for sure there are many 1Ks who previously qualified on miles and segments that will no longer make 1K based on the high spend limit, there will also be those who previously wouldn't have qualified who might do so with two J trips. And also what we don't know is whether UA will decide to modulate the number of 1Ks to any threshold it wants (by comping people who did not meet the criteria to 1K and 1Ks to GS). I think we will need few months after February to have a better idea.