I suspect that Silver status has only 1 in 10,000 odds of clearing the upgrade list.

I scored a unicorn cash fare in business for 2,700 per person between Christmas and New Year's a few years back (LAX-SYD-LAX). That fare (P) was only available for a short while if I recall correctly.

Then I spent an arm and a leg on the transcon between NYC and LAX on VX (Virgin America).

Actually, it's worse, IMHO. The closer one is to an upgrade that's not forthcoming, the easier it is for one to deceive themself into thinking there's a chance .

What is the final destination in Australia? UA fly to SYD, MEL & BNE Or another city/area?
Are other airlines flying to/from AU from a range of AU & USA airports. More than just UA.
The later in Dec the more passenger there are trying get to AU. But in the few days before 25 Dec, can be less people travelling on the employers dime in J. So more upgrades possible, but the airlines know that.

With a party of 4 to AU in December that is being optimistic.
The grubens family should expect to travel in the class as purchased.

Edit
Apr 3 --> ORD>SYD around xmas, best route to clear pluspoints upgrade as 1K?

And that is being generous. Seriously. Just a quick look at tonight's SFO-SYD and LAX-SYD flights already show a sold out biz cabin at 1pm Pacific - and we certainly are not in peak season. Unless someone is a no show - or misconnects, nobody is getting upgraded tonight.

In December, I'd expect a decent chance the biz cabin gets sold out - outright (better than 50/50). And if not, a small handful of GS getting upgraded - or a unicorn of some 1K's. Only a serious misconnect(s) and they don't hold the plane realistically could make this possible - and even then, I see a longshot.

Have you considered Air New Zealand's SkyCouch? You could get two (which would be 6 economy seats). They have leg 'shelfs' that pull up to make a 'bed'. 5 feet long and 29 inches wide. You could at least let one person sleep perhaps and then switch off? Are two of the four, children? I did a dummy booking for Dec 11 - Dec 30. Out of JFK to Auckland and then on to SYD. This is the price RT for 4 people in economy. The SkyCouch is available (they are limited) for both of the long haul flights for these dates and will cost a bit extra. And here is a very recent review from the PointsGuy that explains it. And it's also Star Alliance so you'd at least get some miles?? (https://thepointsguy.com/reviews/sky...r-new-zealand/) The next time I go to OZ, this is how I will go . . . .

OP, how long a trip is this (sorry if I missed)? Can you hold off until January? Would you consider business class for $7500 each (assuming 4 adults)?

Here is a two weeker in January:

https://www.google.com/travel/flight...en-US&curr=USD

For a silver, P+ vs. Y can absolutely make a difference between clearing and not. Just probably not to Australia in December.

I'm fascinated that people really seem to consider PremPlus much better than E+. I've taken it a few times but find that for me it's pretty much a nothing burger. Sure you get served dinner on actual plates, but it's the same economy food. And the seats are a bit wider, but they still don't recline enough for a decent sleep. I'm just as good with an E+ window seat where I can lean against the side of the plane (which I can't do in PP because there's too much of a gap).

I find SkyCoach to be a real scam. The width you get from the three seats is too little for a person of normal height to stretch out, and I find the seats are less comfortable for sitting because of the space taken up by the shelves. AirNZ also seems to have really flimsy seats, where if the people in back of you are using their touch screens it shakes your row of seats.

Each to their own but 20 inch wide seats vs 17, with wider armrest provide significant increase in personal space, more pitch, more recline, leg rest with decent workspace-- all as a combined package at a price well below Polaris (and while food ie low on the list, it should a subset of business choices)

To me, being trapped in a cramped window seat in economy is not a place to spend 11-13-15 hours,

One data point about award ticket + upfare and possibility of refund for a cleared upgrade. I did that 2 weeks ago for two people for NYC-LAX-MEL on a Y+ I mixed cabin ticket. Upfared to PP on the NYC-LAX section and then waitlisted NYC-LAX to I class. About 24 hours before the flight, the NYC-LAX segment cleared to biz, United phone agents could not refund the upfare, because they were not sure whether the R fare affected the upgrade clearing (which it must have), As per the phone agent's suggestion, I put in a refund request through United explaining the upgrade and got the upfare to PP refunded. The refund request was fairly straightforward.

Might be worth a shot to check what the PP upfare offer is - economy (or any) award tickets are effectively risk-free. Though, as someone previously mentioned, upfares are non-refundable for voluntary changes.

Agreed. Definitely not the amount of incremental cost better.​​​​​​

It has the same (or even a little more) space as a domestic F seat, better recline, and a footrest (which is really critical to me on a long haul). It's also only 2 across on the window sides, which is so much better than the 3 across UA has in economy on all its widebodies excepting only the small 767 fleet. For a 14 hour flight, the overall impact of these factors is pretty substantial.

I certainly wouldn't make the choice based on food and beverage options.

I also wouldn't pay $2k extra per ticket for it, unless I was guaranteed an upgrade to J.

Oh wow, mate, peak season in Australia! Beautiful time to visit Australia! Bostonians decipher the Australian accent really quickly (lots of soft r�s� spidahhh, wintahhhh, summahhh� Pahhk the cahhh, etc) Chances for any southern hemisphere upgrades are always best from P+, but could be a challenge for 4 at Silver status. Lots of Aussies return home for Christmas and the flights are full. . That being said, the aircraft capacity is always increased during the North Am Winter/Australian summer. Unfortunately with the hourglass configurations of the UA seatmaps, Premium Plus is always stuck at that 21-24 seats for Australia flights and always creates a waitlist bottleneck for upgrades from Y. For whatever reason, United usually seems to announce new Australia routes or flight frequency increases between around US Mother�s Day and US Father�s Day, (early May to mid June) so wait a couple of weeks to see if any expansion happens for the Christmas timetables and, if so, my advice is to grab any special �new route/more flights� discounted fares in Prem Plus before transferring your other miles. Have a ripper Christmas down under!

It can be if it�s the difference between an upgrade to J clearing or not.

There are a lot of nice features compared with domestic F, especially considering the ragged shape some of those seats are in, but it still seems like domestic F seats offer more space to stretch out horizontally (elbow room, etc.). Those seats seem just a bit wider, with a larger gap between the seats as well.