And that is being generous. Seriously. Just a quick look at tonight's SFO-SYD and LAX-SYD flights already show a sold out biz cabin at 1pm Pacific - and we certainly are not in peak season. Unless someone is a no show - or misconnects, nobody is getting upgraded tonight.

In December, I'd expect a decent chance the biz cabin gets sold out - outright (better than 50/50). And if not, a small handful of GS getting upgraded - or a unicorn of some 1K's. Only a serious misconnect(s) and they don't hold the plane realistically could make this possible - and even then, I see a longshot.