Upgrade Waitlist Question-Trip to Australia
 

We will be traveling from Boston to Australia on United in December 2023 as a family of four. We have the requisite 240,000 points to request upgrades (+ fee) from coach, but will need to transfer in points from Chase to do so. I have Silver status on United. No upgrades are currently available, but we can go on the waitlist. Is there any advantage to paying the fee and moving the miles in now as opposed to waiting until say 1-2 months before the flights? Does getting on the waitlist earlier increase our chances of the actually getting the seats? Also, if we pay for Premium Plus are we any more likely to get off of waitlist for Polaris?

Thank you for any insights.

1) If upgrade space opens up in the next ~6 months then you will miss out on that. That said, it's not common for space to open up that early, especially for 4 seats.
2) If you buy premium plus, your WL priority is above all economy passengers (except GS), but below anyone with higher status. Generally your chances are much better from P+.

December is generally peak travel month to Australia. I wouldn't expect anything, especially for 4.

Be mindful once you transfer from Chase to United, it is not reversible if upgrade requests do not clear (and you would need find another use for 240K from United).

P+ pricing varies a lot, so lock it in if you see a decent price. At this point I’m guessing it’s probably double the economy fare, occasionally it can be cheaper. But it can also be 80 to 90% of a full fare business ticket.

It's likely that's the ONLY way that you would have any chance of successfully upgrading, as P+ pax have priority on the waitlist. For Silver in December, attempting to upgrade from economy is a virtually certain fail. Whether you'd have any reasonable chance at all from P+ depends on the particular flight. But in general the odds are not high, particularly for four pax.

Note the warning above about being unable to unwind your Chase transfer if the upgrades fail.

P+ pricing for our dates and flights is about $5,150 RT v $3,150 in coach.

-- This is why I am hesitant to immediately request the upgrade.

Does the $3150 for Y include the *potential* upgrade co pay?

And to echo the other comments, 4 upgrades holiday season, for a silver will very much be an uphill climb.

As an alternative:
Maybe book 2 awards in Premium Plus, and keep the kids in coach (provided they are of an age to be left in back)?
See what the value is for "miles and money" on a Premium Plus booking?

What is the fare like from the west coast? Might be cheaper breaking up into two itineraries.

I have a saver award booked going out to SYD (December 2023) and there is an opportunity to upfare from coach to Premium Plus for a differential that is smaller than the fare differential you have stated - note this could change at any time. I have not pulled the trigger yet as have not been able to get anything reasonable for the return and the upfare is non-refundable whereas the miles can be returned. My upgrade last December (2022) to SYD was very touch and go from paid coach to Polaris (#9 with 10 seats available a couple of days before the flight) and I ended upfaring to Premium Plus the day before and then upgraded with PlusPoints to Polaris. I think only 6 or 7 people got upgraded for the flight so being in Premium Plus definitely helped me get the Polaris seat. I am a 1K member and it was tough for me to upgrade to Polaris and the only way it happened was to be in Premium Plus.

I am sharing the above so you can manage your expectations. I will say that Premium Plus is better than coach for that long flight (but Polaris is obviously even better for the lie flat bed).

Good luck - Christas and New Year in Sydney is wonderful!

Yeah, pretty much a zero chance of upgrade from economy, for even just one in your party. Buying PremiumPlus seats doesn't improve Silver chances much either, for a Polaris upgrade.

Buying PremPlus does significantly improve the positioning on the waitlist, if that is enough is the question and that take more to determine, WHat it does do is take the upgrade waitlist from a certainity "no way" to "maybe possible"

However, it does another thing, the consolation prize, if the up grade does not clear, PremPlus is a significant step up from economy (and even E+)

Sure it does. You're ahead of everyone in Y except GS.

For Australia in December, that may not be enough though.

Didn't want to imply OP wouldn't move up on waitlist - just saying buying PP, thinking it would result in an upgrade to Polaris for a Silver and 3 others is still a bit a of a reach. The odds certainly don't move above 10-20% IMHO. Moving from #26-29 on a waitlist to #16-19 with 2 seats available isn't particulary satisfying. At least PP are decent seats to be stuck in, if one can't move farther forward.

Doing a quick Google flights check seems like there are other airline options for around $3.3-$4K for premium economy for BOS-SYD in Dec, but I don't know what the upgrade scenarios are on those, but may be worth investigating. Paying a $2K premium to die on the upgrade list seems a questionable decision.

That's the point though - dying at #8 on WL vs. dying at #42 on WL is the same.