FlyingSloth

As this relates to COVID-19, I'm just wondering.. I've been saving up UA miles since around 2013. I don't have much but I have like around 100,000 remaining.. and another 50,000 I was planning to trade from Chase before I product change the Sapphire card. That plan was pre-COVID19. Now I'm confused what to do and curious what other folks are doing? Do you think it's better to use up the miles now or do you guess that United will recover from this situation?

The problem is I do intend to travel in the future once we are through the pandemic. My kids live in Asia, and it is important that I be able to reach them. At the same time, flights (I'm working on a plan to come back to the U.S) are as cheap as they've ever been. The cost of flights on the ANA web site, and other airlines is as cheap as I've ever seen them before on one-way trans-Pacific flights. That's why I'm wondering if it would make sense to use the 40,000 UA miles on the flight from S.E Asia to N. America effectively to 'get rid of the miles while you still can' or hang on to those in the future where I could likely use the miles for a trip where I would get better value?

Just wondering what other people are advising? I have 150,000 miles saved up with UA. I need to get back to the U.S. Flights are as cheap as I've ever seen them before. So it is confusing whether I should pay by credit card or use miles? The value I would get with the miles isn't the best, but there is the sinking concern in the back of my mind about whether the miles will be majorly devalued or whether airlines like UA and others will even recover from the COVID-19 pandemic? I do intend to travel in the future, but I'm unsure whether it makes sense to get rid of the miles now while I still can. I'd love to get other people's thoughts and options and gameplan on what you're doing.

onthesam

I converted all my miles into premium cabin award tickets on foreign carriers for travel late this year. My thinking is that if MP is spun off, the tickets will be a lot more valuable than the miles. Maybe I'm crazy.

jsloan

Miles never increase in value. Over time, they will always decrease. It is always the right time to use miles....

... but it is not necessarily always the right situation to use them. I have a similar balance to yours, and I am not rushing to cash them out, but I am well aware that the value could vanish overnight. If cash prices are so low that you feel your miles are better off staying banked, and you're comfortable with the risk that your miles might lose most or all of their value overnight, then you're not insane to want to save them.

When is the future? Are you talking about maybe being able to use them next year, or are we talking 2024?

FlyingSloth

There's too much uncertainty these days. I wish I knew when the future will be. :-( Because I have been overseas for several years, and returning back to the U.S due to COVID-19. I imagine that I would like to leave the U.S again within the near future. Perhaps later in 2020, or 2021, so yes it does seem likely I'd use the miles. I don't know how much the miles will be devalued especially with the news that United lost 2 billion in the 1st quarter.. and overall bad news for the airline industry.

Like for my example, the cost of the flight in miles is 40,000 and $60 USD. Whereas, the cost of the flight in cash is $835 (ANA) or even $630 if I chose another option (Singapore Airlines). In general, in "normal times" that is less value than I would normally have found acceptable for 40,000 miles+taxes. But if the airline industry is close to going out of business and if UA miles are on the cusp of being majorly devalued then it could be wise to spend now? That's what I'm trying to ascertain. I am not so knowledgeable enough about miles and the history of miles. I know people on FT are knowledgeable though so just seeking honest feedback and opinions about this situation. :-) I'm okay either way with it.. just don't want to have too many regrets for wasting miles or spending savings when I should have used miles instead.

jsloan

OK. I don't think there's a wrong answer here, then. Holding out for the possibility of using them in the next 18 months is not unreasonable (but it is risky).

40K miles + $60 taxes for an $835 flight is a fairly reasonable value -- not outstanding, but I've used miles for less. It's borderline if you're comparing it to the SQ option. There are two usual advantages to choosing an award flight: no surcharge for one-way flights and discounted changes compared to cash tickets. The discounted changes aren't currently as big of a draw, because UA is waiving change fees for tickets booked through April 30 (and possibly for longer). The one-way pricing, though, might be useful, as it sounds like you're paying a bit of a penalty for booking one-way (as opposed to half the cost of a roundtrip).

Airline miles have been protected in most past bankruptcies, but not all (Ansett Australia's mileage program collapsed when the airline did, for example). However, the industrywide weakness right now is unprecedented, and I don't think anybody really knows what will happen.

At the end of the day, cash is king, so if the decision is too close to call, my vote would be to pay with miles. It wouldn't be crazy to use cash instead, but with United's dynamic award pricing, with no charts, they could wake up tomorrow and decide that a coach award from the US to SE Asia costs 100K miles, and there's nothing we could do about it.

Hope this helps -- sorry it's such a toss up.

econ

Also, with UA extending status, 2020 (& possibly 2021 depending on what happens with status thresholds) is an especially opportune time for those members to use miles without having to be concerned with re-qualification.

FlyingSloth

for comparison, what I considered a 'value for money' use of miles was the last time I used UA miles for Japan to Singapore with Singapore Airlines for 20,000 miles. Normally that flight one-way can be $1,000

jsloan

That is an exceptionally good use of miles, to be celebrated, but not to be used as a baseline for future redemptions, IMO -- unless you happen to need to make a lot of one-way flights from Japan, in which case, save your miles for those. FWIW, I searched a random summer day for NRT-SIN and got US$432 one-way on SQ, or US$468 for a round-trip. The ANA flights, OTOH, were $2700 one-way or $640 RT -- so SQ may be trying some discounting there also.

phkc070408

An interesting concept - buying award flights with foreign carriers now.

We're planing a big trip EWR-OZ in October 2021 and currently have close to 1M miles. It might be worth booking a Mileage[burn] run with them on a foreign carrier for next March and pay the redeposit fee in February if UA is still standing. If we can't take the big trip, we can at least go somewhere, even if for only a few nights.

Repooc17

That's actually a generous quarter in terms of losses for UA (or other airlines), considering the decline in traffic didn't really start until well into the last month of the quarter. To be specific, however, the $2b loss had several large one-time charge unrelated to COVID-19. This quarter is going to be brutal.

In terms of devaluation, miles and financial results do not map 1:1. For example, if a particular route had increase in miles needed for an award, that's likely due to UA moving from fixed mileage redemption to dynamic.

The awards game hasn't really changed over the years. Last minute flights, premium class (e.g. 60K for one-way TPAC or TATL; 100K TPAC roundtrip). Bottom line, if you see an award attractive to you, go for it.

ChrisLovesUgly

Personally, I try not to use miles unless I'm getting 2 cents per mile, or better, in economy class. Your redemption isn't quite there for me, but sometimes it's better to use the miles and keep the cash if you're a bit short on the latter. It's a personal call and not a bad redemption, but could be better.

I think good cash deals will be pretty readily available once things settle down and open back up. I would save the miles, and preferably in my Chase account if there was a less expensive card I could downgrade to, maybe? If forced to transfer them, pooling them with other points isn't a bad plan.

Repooc17

Sapphire Preferred is $95/year in annual fee.

FlyingSloth

Just curious.. would it make sense to downgrade from the CSR to the CSP if I've never had the CSP before? Not sure if that would exclude me from a future CSP sign-up bonus.

findark

Chase SUB wording is one bonus per 48 months, shared between Sapphire cards, so converting into one shouldn't be a problem.

Efrem

My crystal ball is several revisions out of date, but my guess is that UA will survive in some form and that reward seats will be easy to get for a while. I'd ask another question: will a paid ticket help you reach a higher status level, taking into account whatever relaxed conditions for earning status UA has in effect for this year?