Originally Posted by
jsloan
Miles never increase in value. Over time, they will always decrease. It is always the right time to use miles....
... but it is not necessarily always the right situation to use them. I have a similar balance to yours, and I am not rushing to cash them out, but I am well aware that the value could vanish overnight. If cash prices are so low that you feel your miles are better off staying banked, and you're comfortable with the risk that your miles might lose most or all of their value overnight, then you're not insane to want to save them.
When is the future? Are you talking about maybe being able to use them next year, or are we talking 2024?
There's too much uncertainty these days. I wish I knew when the future will be. :-( Because I have been overseas for several years, and returning back to the U.S due to COVID-19. I imagine that I would like to leave the U.S again within the near future. Perhaps later in 2020, or 2021, so yes it does seem likely I'd use the miles. I don't know how much the miles will be devalued especially with the news that United lost 2 billion in the 1st quarter.. and overall bad news for the airline industry.
Like for my example, the cost of the flight in miles is 40,000 and $60 USD. Whereas, the cost of the flight in cash is $835 (ANA) or even $630 if I chose another option (Singapore Airlines). In general, in "normal times" that is less value than I would normally have found acceptable for 40,000 miles+taxes. But if the airline industry is close to going out of business and if UA miles are on the cusp of being majorly devalued then it could be wise to spend now? That's what I'm trying to ascertain. I am not so knowledgeable enough about miles and the history of miles. I know people on FT are knowledgeable though so just seeking honest feedback and opinions about this situation. :-) I'm okay either way with it.. just don't want to have too many regrets for wasting miles or spending savings when I should have used miles instead.