Originally Posted by
treepuppy
There's too much uncertainty these days. I wish I knew when the future will be. :-( Because I have been overseas for several years, and returning back to the U.S due to COVID-19. I imagine that I would like to leave the U.S again within the near future. Perhaps later in 2020, or 2021, so yes it does seem likely I'd use the miles. I don't know how much the miles will be devalued especially with the news that United lost 2 billion in the 1st quarter.. and overall bad news for the airline industry.
OK. I don't think there's a wrong answer here, then. Holding out for the possibility of using them in the next 18 months is not unreasonable (but it is risky).
Originally Posted by
treepuppy
Like for my example, the cost of the flight in miles is 40,000 and $60 USD. Whereas, the cost of the flight in cash is $835 (ANA) or even $630 if I chose another option (Singapore Airlines). In general, in "normal times" that is less value than I would normally have found acceptable for 40,000 miles+taxes.
40K miles + $60 taxes for an $835 flight is a fairly reasonable value -- not outstanding, but I've used miles for less. It's borderline if you're comparing it to the SQ option. There are two usual advantages to choosing an award flight: no surcharge for one-way flights and discounted changes compared to cash tickets. The discounted changes aren't currently as big of a draw, because UA is waiving change fees for tickets booked through April 30 (and possibly for longer). The one-way pricing, though, might be useful, as it sounds like you're paying a bit of a penalty for booking one-way (as opposed to half the cost of a roundtrip).
Originally Posted by
treepuppy
But if the airline industry is close to going out of business and if UA miles are on the cusp of being majorly devalued then it could be wise to spend now? That's what I'm trying to ascertain. I am not so knowledgeable enough about miles and the history of miles. I know people on FT are knowledgeable though so just seeking honest feedback and opinions about this situation. :-) I'm okay either way with it.. just don't want to have too many regrets for wasting miles or spending savings when I should have used miles instead.
Airline miles have been protected in most past bankruptcies, but not all (Ansett Australia's mileage program collapsed when the airline did, for example). However, the industrywide weakness right now is unprecedented, and I don't think anybody really knows what will happen.
At the end of the day, cash is king, so if the decision is too close to call, my vote would be to pay with miles. It wouldn't be crazy to use cash instead, but with United's dynamic award pricing, with no charts, they could wake up tomorrow and decide that a coach award from the US to SE Asia costs 100K miles, and there's nothing we could do about it.
Hope this helps -- sorry it's such a toss up.
