Speculation Thread: The "Kirby Kutbacks"
Mar 20, 2020 | 3:45 am
#62
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2003
Programs: UA 1K 1MM (finally!), IHG AMB-Spire, HH Diamond
Posts: 62,527
Mar 20, 2020 | 7:12 am
#63
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: CLE/RSW
Posts: 211
EDIT: Started a redundant thread by mistake. Here was the meat of my post:
Call me pessimistic, but I could see many of the below happening and staying in place until UAs growth rates return to pre-crisis levels:
- Increased checked bag fees
- Seat reservation fees for all nonelite Y pax >24 hours before flight
- Charge for soft drinks on most domestic flights
- Aggressive hawking of TOD upgrades (verbal pitches at the gate, etc)
- Scaling down of Polaris onboard service: simplified dessert, termination of Saks partnership / return to generic bedding
Call me pessimistic, but I could see many of the below happening and staying in place until UAs growth rates return to pre-crisis levels:
- Increased checked bag fees
- Seat reservation fees for all nonelite Y pax >24 hours before flight
- Charge for soft drinks on most domestic flights
- Aggressive hawking of TOD upgrades (verbal pitches at the gate, etc)
- Scaling down of Polaris onboard service: simplified dessert, termination of Saks partnership / return to generic bedding
Mar 22, 2020 | 10:00 am
#64
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: 42mi from AMS
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, Marriott LT Au, Hilton C, IHG PtA
Posts: 577
Remember that HP was considered a LCC before the US+HP merger...
Mar 22, 2020 | 1:15 pm
#67
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA, B6, DL, EK, EY, QR, SQ, UA, Amex Plat, Marriott Tit, HHonors Gold
Posts: 12,810
Mar 22, 2020 | 1:55 pm
#68
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, ALL Accor Diamond, IHG Platinum Elite, Marriott Bonvoy Gold, Avis PC, Hertz PC
Posts: 10,700
I had this in the viability thread, but here is some speculation, more on routes than anything:
-elimination of many of the summer seasonal / leisure routes, along with routes that do not carry enough demand. I would think the logical thing would be for UA to route lots of traffic through *A hubs (FRA, ZRH, BRU) to drive coverage to Europe and cut direct flights
-possibly rethink utilizing NRT as a *A hub for Asia flying - maybe reinstate connections from IAD and ORD, since there are no slot restrictions. Perhaps limit direct flights to China solely to SFO and align NRT-PVG/PEK/HKG on NH to work for connections elsewhere
-heavy frequency reduction of premium TCON routes, retiring sUA 752s (and possibly some sCO 752s), and densifying the routes using a mix of 788s, 78Js and HD 772s
-early retirement of older widebodies? Perhaps the 764s are first to go, before any capex is sunk into retrofits?
-elimination of many of the summer seasonal / leisure routes, along with routes that do not carry enough demand. I would think the logical thing would be for UA to route lots of traffic through *A hubs (FRA, ZRH, BRU) to drive coverage to Europe and cut direct flights
-possibly rethink utilizing NRT as a *A hub for Asia flying - maybe reinstate connections from IAD and ORD, since there are no slot restrictions. Perhaps limit direct flights to China solely to SFO and align NRT-PVG/PEK/HKG on NH to work for connections elsewhere
-heavy frequency reduction of premium TCON routes, retiring sUA 752s (and possibly some sCO 752s), and densifying the routes using a mix of 788s, 78Js and HD 772s
-early retirement of older widebodies? Perhaps the 764s are first to go, before any capex is sunk into retrofits?
Mar 22, 2020 | 2:06 pm
#69
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 11,705
...
-possibly rethink utilizing NRT as a *A hub for Asia flying - maybe reinstate connections from IAD and ORD, since there are no slot restrictions. Perhaps limit direct flights to China solely to SFO and align NRT-PVG/PEK/HKG on NH to work for connections elsewhere
...
-possibly rethink utilizing NRT as a *A hub for Asia flying - maybe reinstate connections from IAD and ORD, since there are no slot restrictions. Perhaps limit direct flights to China solely to SFO and align NRT-PVG/PEK/HKG on NH to work for connections elsewhere
...
I wonder if a lot of the retrofits (Polaris, CRJ550) will be put on hold.
Are they going to devalue MileagePlus more or somehow use it to stimulate demand, including redemptions?
I can see some of the improvements going away - no more free snacks in Y, etc. Maybe even the free 1K/GS snack. Basically every department will be asked to cut xx%...
Mar 22, 2020 | 2:20 pm
#70
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Programs: UA 1K 1MMer & LT UC (when flying UA); Hyatt Credit Cardist; HHonors Gold; Marriott Gold via UA 1K
Posts: 7,145
Nothing like a little truth in advertising!
Mar 22, 2020 | 3:41 pm
#71
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, ALL Accor Diamond, IHG Platinum Elite, Marriott Bonvoy Gold, Avis PC, Hertz PC
Posts: 10,700
With HND opening up more slots and more NH/UA flights shifting to HND, how would it work?
I wonder if a lot of the retrofits (Polaris, CRJ550) will be put on hold.
Are they going to devalue MileagePlus more or somehow use it to stimulate demand, including redemptions?
I can see some of the improvements going away - no more free snacks in Y, etc. Maybe even the free 1K/GS snack. Basically every department will be asked to cut xx%...
I wonder if a lot of the retrofits (Polaris, CRJ550) will be put on hold.
Are they going to devalue MileagePlus more or somehow use it to stimulate demand, including redemptions?
I can see some of the improvements going away - no more free snacks in Y, etc. Maybe even the free 1K/GS snack. Basically every department will be asked to cut xx%...
As for Polaris retrofits, I think the 764s will never get Polaris before they are retired, and it will take much longer for 788/789s to be done (if ever).
Mar 22, 2020 | 9:07 pm
#72
Original Poster
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: LAX/TPE
Programs: United 1K, JAL Sapphire, SPG Lifetime Platinum, National Executive Elite, Hertz PC, Avis PC
Posts: 47,233
Mar 22, 2020 | 10:25 pm
#73
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2003
Programs: UA 1K 1MM (finally!), IHG AMB-Spire, HH Diamond
Posts: 62,527
His ouster should be condition 2 or 3 of taking a bailout. First being no dividends or buybacks, and worker protections. Oscar can hang on another 6-12 months and transition things to a rational successor.
Mar 22, 2020 | 10:41 pm
#74
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York / Hawaii
Programs: UA Global Services, HH Diamond
Posts: 5,206
Poor Oscar. End of February the economy and the airline was booming and he was golden to sail off into the sunset. Now he's working with a practically bankrupt airline that can count its daily passenger loads bu the dozen.
Mar 22, 2020 | 10:50 pm
#75
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 11,263
I dont think that Kirby will be jettisoned in any bailout. If UA survives, hell still stick around unfortunately. Cutbacks will continue only now he will use coronavirus as an overarching excuse for any and all cutbacks.