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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old May 25, 2019, 12:32 pm
  #4021  
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX
I've got an LAX-ORD flight coming up next week and PZ space just opened. It's currently J9 - P9 with 15/24 seats unassigned. As a 1K, trying to determine if I should burn the RPU or just hope for the CPU. Is Friday evening a busy time for LAX-ORD (I usually travel in morning on this route and it always fills up)? I really want the upgrade because I'll be coming to the airport hungry and like the pesto chicken this month. But I really hate to "waste" a RPU on a non ps flight. Buy-up is $213 which also isn't bad, but there's no need to waste that for a 753 when I can just buy a hamburger onboard and stretch out in an exit row...

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Thoughts?
I got the CPU for 661 at this time of last year (May 2018), but it was Monday instead of Friday. I've also had pretty good luck the last few months with ORD/LAX. Not sure if summer is more or less difficult than winter and spring.

However, if 1AB are open on your flight, I'd consider it good use of the RPU.
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Old May 25, 2019, 1:05 pm
  #4022  
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH
Why would you buy a hamburger on board when as a 1K you can get it for free? Although you have to be careful as one time when I was in Row 21 I did get the last one. So, I assume that there's the possibility that they might be gone by that row.

I also only travel that route in the morning (to be able to not miss the last flight home) and then First Class is packed with passengers transferring to flights to Europe.
LOL, I totally forgot. It's been over a year since I've been on a domestic flight that long in economy class. *Knock on wood*

Originally Posted by fumje
I got the CPU for 661 at this time of last year (May 2018), but it was Monday instead of Friday. I've also had pretty good luck the last few months with ORD/LAX. Not sure if summer is more or less difficult than winter and spring.

However, if 1AB are open on your flight, I'd consider it good use of the RPU.
Good data point. Thanks. I'll probably hold off applying a RPU unless my upgrade doesn't clear at the window.
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Old May 25, 2019, 3:42 pm
  #4023  
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX
I've got an LAX-ORD flight coming up next week and PZ space just opened. It's currently J9 - P9 with 15/24 seats unassigned. As a 1K, trying to determine if I should burn the RPU or just hope for the CPU. Is Friday evening a busy time for LAX-ORD (I usually travel in morning on this route and it always fills up)? I really want the upgrade because I'll be coming to the airport hungry and like the pesto chicken this month. But I really hate to "waste" a RPU on a non ps flight. Buy-up is $213 which also isn't bad, but there's no need to waste that for a 753 when I can just buy a hamburger onboard and stretch out in an exit row...
If 1A is available, I would burn the RPU just for the seat.

But I'm throwing at LAX-SFO now.
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Old May 25, 2019, 4:02 pm
  #4024  
 
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Originally Posted by MatthewLAX
I've got an LAX-ORD flight coming up next week and PZ space just opened. It's currently J9 - P9 with 15/24 seats unassigned. As a 1K, trying to determine if I should burn the RPU or just hope for the CPU. Is Friday evening a busy time for LAX-ORD (I usually travel in morning on this route and it always fills up)? I really want the upgrade because I'll be coming to the airport hungry and like the pesto chicken this month. But I really hate to "waste" a RPU on a non ps flight. Buy-up is $213 which also isn't bad, but there's no need to waste that for a 753 when I can just buy a hamburger onboard and stretch out in an exit row...



Thoughts?
I virtually never score a CPU on LAX-ORD (last one was midweek redeye) so my instinct is to throw an RPU at it and see what happens.
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Old May 25, 2019, 4:13 pm
  #4025  
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Originally Posted by AirbusFan2B
my instinct is to throw an RPU at it and see what happens.
?

It will clear.
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Old May 25, 2019, 6:21 pm
  #4026  
 
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Originally Posted by AirbusFan2B
I virtually never score a CPU on LAX-ORD (last one was midweek redeye) so my instinct is to throw an RPU at it and see what happens.
Originally Posted by Kacee
?
It will clear.
Yes, PZ3 makes it a sure thing.
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Old May 25, 2019, 6:26 pm
  #4027  
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My instinct is that a 1K CPU is a pretty sure thing if the flight is really open in PZ (not a blocked waitlist), but it is of course a risk.
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Old May 25, 2019, 8:24 pm
  #4028  
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Originally Posted by findark
My instinct is that a 1K CPU is a pretty sure thing if the flight is really open in PZ (not a blocked waitlist), but it is of course a risk.
we are a week away. I’m probably just going to bite the bullet and confirm the upgrade, just to save the wasted time/productivity in constantly checking the space.
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Old May 26, 2019, 11:35 am
  #4029  
 
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Use miles instead

Save the rpu for a ps flight
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Old May 28, 2019, 10:29 am
  #4030  
 
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Hi,

Think this is the right place. I have a couple of questions. I am looking to take one of my quarterly trips back to UK with my 7 year old, to see family.

Looking to fly 29th June PBI-EWR-LHR. I can also fly 30th and and a push the 1st, using GPUs (just on outbound , do not use them for day flights back)

I have been doing the usual - Checking 3 times per day for last 3 weeks waiting for PZ space to open up. I could book 'free' Premium Economy on UA14 for GPU price ticket , what are the chances of clearing?

The issue I have, is I never book until PZ space is actually open, because right now, for various flights, there is a $500-$800 uplift from regular price to GPU price, is this typical? I do not recall it being that bad before. I see no point in paying 1600 extra for 2 people with no guarantee of clearing.

Also, id the "p" an indication of chance of clearing? Like P9 ? Also what does PN9 mean ?

Is it usually better to keep waiting right until the last minute to see if PZ space opens up ? Or do you run the risk of prices beinf even higher?

thx
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Old May 28, 2019, 11:24 am
  #4031  
 
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Originally Posted by simonoaks
Hi,

Think this is the right place. I have a couple of questions. I am looking to take one of my quarterly trips back to UK with my 7 year old, to see family.

Looking to fly 29th June PBI-EWR-LHR. I can also fly 30th and and a push the 1st, using GPUs (just on outbound , do not use them for day flights back)

I have been doing the usual - Checking 3 times per day for last 3 weeks waiting for PZ space to open up. I could book 'free' Premium Economy on UA14 for GPU price ticket , what are the chances of clearing?

The issue I have, is I never book until PZ space is actually open, because right now, for various flights, there is a $500-$800 uplift from regular price to GPU price, is this typical? I do not recall it being that bad before. I see no point in paying 1600 extra for 2 people with no guarantee of clearing.

Also, id the "p" an indication of chance of clearing? Like P9 ? Also what does PN9 mean ?

Is it usually better to keep waiting right until the last minute to see if PZ space opens up ? Or do you run the risk of prices beinf even higher?

thx
PN9 is a very good sign as it means that there are no GS waitlisted for the upgrade (unless they are a very big family of 10). Usually, they do open some PZ space but we don't know how many 1Ks are waitlisted already.

I think the price can go higher if they sell all the W fares and force you to a higher fare. Usually, the website says something like only 1 ticket left at this price, only 5 tickets left at this price when there is a risk that the fare class will go higher.
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Old May 28, 2019, 11:35 am
  #4032  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH
PN9 is a very good sign as it means that there are no GS waitlisted for the upgrade (unless they are a very big family of 10). Usually, they do open some PZ space but we don't know how many 1Ks are waitlisted already.

I think the price can go higher if they sell all the W fares and force you to a higher fare. Usually, the website says something like only 1 ticket left at this price, only 5 tickets left at this price when there is a risk that the fare class will go higher.
Ok, thanks.

I also noticed that it is 400 bucks cheaper to book separate pbi- ewr return, then ewr-LHR return, is this common? Seems odd. Is the only downside to this being that I will not benefit from the GPU on the domestic legs?
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Old May 28, 2019, 12:25 pm
  #4033  
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH
I think the price can go higher if they sell all the W fares and force you to a higher fare. Usually, the website says something like only 1 ticket left at this price, only 5 tickets left at this price when there is a risk that the fare class will go higher.
That's not really the way pricing works. I mean, yes, if they are at W1 and they sell a ticket, they will likely to go W0, but they can also go from W9 to W0 and back with no warning.

The most common reason that a W fare price would change is that you'd pass an advance purchase window. Looking at PBI-LHR, the lowest upgradeable W fare I see has a 14-day advance purchase requirement. If you waited until 13 days prior to departure, you'd get bumped up to the next fare.

That said, consider routing on a plane that has Premium Plus. As long as the flight is UA-operated, you can upgrade any P+ ticket with a GPU, and the discount P+ fares are much, much cheaper than W. (The cheapest ones do require a 28-day advance purchase and a Saturday-night stay, though). The nice thing about that is that even if your GPU doesn't clear, you got a nicer seat for less money than the W lottery would have cost.


Originally Posted by simonoaks
I also noticed that it is 400 bucks cheaper to book separate pbi- ewr return, then ewr-LHR return, is this common? Seems odd. Is the only downside to this being that I will not benefit from the GPU on the domestic legs?
It's common on some routes and uncommon on others. NYC-LON is a highly competitive route.

The biggest downside is that if you are delayed out of PBI and miss your connection in EWR, UA is not obligated to accommodate you. In practice, they have a good record for doing this, but it's not a requirement.

You would also lose EC.261 protection on the connecting flight home.
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Old May 28, 2019, 12:52 pm
  #4034  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan
It's common on some routes and uncommon on others. NYC-LON is a highly competitive route.

The biggest downside is that if you are delayed out of PBI and miss your connection in EWR, UA is not obligated to accommodate you. In practice, they have a good record for doing this, but it's not a requirement.

You would also lose EC.261 protection on the connecting flight home.
The other downside is if the UA agents are as inept as the ones where I unfortunately live and don't manage to do a simple UA-UA through transfer of the luggage to your final destination. Even the help desk was not willing to help but maybe the help desk was in a bad mood at 5:00 AM. It was not fun for my wife to have to collect the luggage at ORD and return it. She chose to be the volunteer to do it since I had to work at my destination and could not risk missing the flight. Maybe simonoaks should consider traveling with no checked luggage if purchasing the tickets separately.

And yes, jsloan, I understand nothing about pricing.
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Old May 28, 2019, 1:02 pm
  #4035  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by jsloan
That's not really the way pricing works. I mean, yes, if they are at W1 and they sell a ticket, they will likely to go W0, but they can also go from W9 to W0 and back with no warning.

That said, consider routing on a plane that has Premium Plus. As long as the flight is UA-operated, you can upgrade any P+ ticket with a GPU, and the discount P+ fares are much, much cheaper than W. (The cheapest ones do require a 28-day advance purchase and a Saturday-night stay, though). The nice thing about that is that even if your GPU doesn't clear, you got a nicer seat for less money than the W lottery would have cost.
So, just to clarify, as UA is not 'selling' P+ seats right now, I should just buy standard economy return ticket - say UA14 on 29th June , and when I select the P+ seats for free (as a 1K ) , it will automatically be a P+ ticket and I can then apply the GPUs because of this?

thx
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