findark

Based on experience and it is not a hard and fast rule.. just trying to head off the "but there are no seats in J sold!!" feeling which seems to come up a lot when waitlisted for an upgrade. p.s. flights basically never come out of block with R space, and I don't think I've seen an inventory adjustment that gives them R outside of 30 days, even if 0 seats are sold. YMMV of course, but just trying to set expectations.

pushmyredbutton

Against my better judgement, I booked and waitlisted SFO-SIN for 4/24.

Currently showing:
J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN0, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9, G9, N9, XN9, X9

I know this is one of the hardest upgrades, but being on a Tuesday night and P9, I have some tiny shot, right?

jjmoore

I would say you have a good shot on the outbound.... though that P fare is showing $2400 o.w. which is very attractive. Not sure how many they will release in that bucket, but I could see P being available until J=8-10. Did you purchase a W fare when cheaper fare classes were available? Looking up SFO-SIN-SFO on that date is showing L fare availability at $904 r.t. W is only $210 more each way.... I would say this is the right choice, even though you are risking a couple hundred bucks each way on it.

Good luck.

Bearsfan75

Does anyone have experience with clearing GPU's from EWR to FRA (UA960) in summer? June 15th, flight is very open (only 7/60 booked) and looks like this:

• J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P0, PN0, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K0, G0, N9, XN0, X0

Was curious if anyone has experience with this route and the possible timing of clearing the wait list. Only 4 E+ seats have been sold. Very open flight. Thanks!

Background: I am considering this or a flight from DEN to LHR, but the DEN flight is booked 10/36 and the other cabins are also being booked up.

cfischer

SFO-SIN ... you can never say. I booked to SIN in December and the flight was near empty ... now with 2 weeks to go it is J5. Doesn't matter to me because I am on a C fare, but these flights always go out full and the ones I have on did not clear any UGs or maybe 1-2 GS on the list. Would not play the lottery on SIN flights

Kacee

Agree.

I waitlisted today's UA58 SFO-FRA 7 weeks out at P6 and booked 20/60, with R available the day before and after. Never cleared, and it went out with around 20 on the waitlist. (I had to cancel anyway due to work commitments.) SFO-SIN is an even tougher upgrade.

fgirard

Welp, I think my GPU luck is going to run out as I�m #2 for 5 seats on UA923 (LAX-LHR) on 2/16.

The annoying part is that the OLCI system offered me the upgrade for $829.

iluv2fly

That's a great price. I usually get a $1099 price or so to upgrade ORD-LHR. Glad you took it. And you can save the GPU for another time.

Bearsfan75

Does anyone have experience with clearing GPU's from EWR to FRA (UA960) in summer? June 15th, flight is very open (only 7/60 booked) and looks like this:

• J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P0, PN0, R0, RN0, IN0, I0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K0, G0, N9, XN0, X0

Was curious if anyone has experience with this route and the possible timing of clearing the wait list. Only 4 E+ seats have been sold. Very open flight. Thanks!

Background: I am considering this or a flight from DEN to LHR, but the DEN flight is booked 10/36 and the other cabins are also being booked up.

laxmillenial

We'll say this again, seat maps are NOT indicative of how many seats have been sold. So don't use them. Use the flight status tool.

Basically if PN=0 and P=0 are both bad. Means GS could be waitlisted.

What are the fare classes available for DEN to LHR? If PN>0 or P>0, those chances are better.

Kacee

The basic answer to these questions is always the same. Anything over 6-8 weeks out is a complete roll of the dice. No one can give you a meaningful prediction. The best advice is book into open R. Next best is book a flight with PN>0. Beyond that, it's really anyone's guess this far out.

Let's not lecture OP without reading more carefully. He obviously used the tool (flight is booked 7/60), then counted E+ seats as an indicator of elite load. (And btw, counting J seats actually is an accurate predictor for flights ex-US most of the time; in this case, it matches load perfectly.)

Bearsfan75

Thanks for this. The DEN to LHR flight has basically the same fare classes and 0's at both P and PN. There are no flights/segments with PN's available for my routing on that day for the long haul and the P is spotty. Seems like UA is planning to sell these and is holding the upgrades.

As far as GS on the WL, the DEN to LHR has only 2 on the WL, and that is my wife and me. The EWR to FRA has no waitlist. (Only 4 seats in E+ booked.)

Kacee

IMO this is not a meaningful data point. Even if the agent tells you the truth (and that is often an issue), it's not an indicator of anything. 10 GS or 1K on higher fares could waitlist tomorrow and they would all jump you.

pushmyredbutton

I think for E+, it's a pretty reliable indicator of how many elites are currently booked, though. E- and J are almost always up in the air, but in my experience E+ seems to stay pretty consistent.

Thank you and I'll keep everyone posted if it clears. It was about a $180 upfare for this one leg, so while not cheap, it's paired with a transcon segment, so at least that will be 'free' if the TPAC doesn't clear.

jsloan

Yes, that is exactly correct. It's stressful, but there's not much you can do other than wait. Friday upgrades are extremely difficult to clear, as business travelers will often work the full week and then take the Friday flight home. Most business travel is planned within a couple of weeks of departure, so it's not at all uncommon to watch the J cabin fill as departure approaches.

Even if they don't sell the seats in advance, they may well offer cash upgrades to Y customers -- including you -- before clearing GPUs.

You're clearly willing to pay the change fee to get into J, as well as make multiple connections, so the advice is simple: keep watching for R space. Search just the TATL flights you're interested in -- EWR-FRA, not DEN-VIE; if there is R space on EWR-FRA, your upgrade would clear on that segment immediately even though you'd likely be waitlisted from DEN-EWR.

Don't forget the LH flight (look for I space on that one). And, keep in mind that UA's routing rules for TATL flights are extremely generous. You can route through just about any major European city as well as any domestic hub. For example, DEN-SFO-ZRH-VIE is a legal routing, so check SFO-ZRH. So is DEN-IAH-AMS-(FRA/MUC)-VIE, so check IAH-AMS. If you ever see R space, that's the time to make the change.

Good luck.