How many are REALLY leaving UA? [2014 edition]
Mar 8, 2014, 10:58 am
#451
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
Posts: 5,825
there are many ways to die. UA is dying via the slow, painful bleed. noone here is surmising that 10,000 elites/HVFs are choosing to leave every day. but if 100 are leaving every day, which i think is possible, eventually the outcome is the same. it just takes longer to get there. but it's happening...the writing is on the wall.
And 75 high level elites are leaving DL and AA each day and coming to UA.
UA still has the unquestionable advantage of their route network and *A (for many, not all flyers).
UA still has the best (perhaps equal to AA) FF rewards program.
People that argue that AA's 10 planes with the new Int'l C product is better that UA's 100% lie flat are exhibiting their bias, in my opinion.
When UA gets it's act together in a few more areas - eg wifi, operational efficiency, some (hopefully) soft product enhancements - then the balance of elite movement will shift back to UA away from DL (new skypeso scheme, other punative changes) and AA (if you think the USAA merger won't be a bumpy road for flyers, you are fooling yourself).
We'll see...
Mar 8, 2014, 11:13 am
#452
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Mar 8, 2014, 11:15 am
#453
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 129
there are many ways to die. UA is dying via the slow, painful bleed. noone here is surmising that 10,000 elites/HVFs are choosing to leave every day. but if 100 are leaving every day, which i think is possible, eventually the outcome is the same. it just takes longer to get there. but it's happening...the writing is on the wall.
You will see plenty of yellow handle wraps at SFO T1 and T2.
Most every flight to/from SFO you will overhear or participate in a conversation with a United refugee tired of the abuse.
This morning at the gym, there were two gentlemen complaining about United - the crappy product, the poor treatment, Smisek, "over-entitled," all of it - and said this year they declared no mas. I did a double-take, thinking perhaps I had loaded an FT podcast.
Although it is the "most" insignificant among insignificant stories, I think the last one is telling. The non-FT'er has to be pretty fired up to complain about United on a Saturday morning when he isn't even traveling.
Mar 8, 2014, 11:15 am
#454
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas
Programs: DL Platinum, AA Lifetime Gold, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum, Radisson Premium
Posts: 6,638
They're making it really easy for me by keeping me waitlisted on SFO-LHR for 5 months.
Ridiculous. What good are the GPUs if I can't use them? My CPU rate is below 50% this year, I can't get a GPU to LHR - honestly. The loyalty isn't being rewarded.
Ridiculous. What good are the GPUs if I can't use them? My CPU rate is below 50% this year, I can't get a GPU to LHR - honestly. The loyalty isn't being rewarded.
Mar 8, 2014, 11:18 am
#455
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
Posts: 5,825
It's all anecdotal around here though, so who really knows?
Mar 8, 2014, 11:30 am
#456
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Posts: 6,638
By the way, I'm at the point where I don't care about the SFO hub captive thing anymore. I can't take the way UA treats me. I can't take the sub 50% upgrade rates, I can't take that I buy an extremely expensive international Y fare and still can't get upgraded. There's no point in this anymore.
And sorry, no, pretending it's "just as bad" on AA or DL is simply trying to gloss over what UA has done to its loyal flyers.
And sorry, no, pretending it's "just as bad" on AA or DL is simply trying to gloss over what UA has done to its loyal flyers.
Mar 8, 2014, 11:38 am
#457
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Mar 8, 2014, 11:43 am
#458
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Mar 8, 2014, 11:43 am
#459
Join Date: Feb 2008
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Maybe so, but that assumes DL yields went up only after the mass exodus from UA occurred (whenever it did occur)
Good points re: financials but as you have said before financials is not as simple as how many pax you fly or who you fly. Down also to how much you spend flying them (efficiency) and other factors. UA is by no means an efficient airline and their yield will be relatively low even with full planes.
When you say the quality has changed do you mean that you and I (and others) have changed in our intrinsic quality or that there has been movement and a different (presumably lower) quality of pax no flies UA? If so the converse is that the 'quality' of passengers flying AA and DL has risen - is that the case? Surely there has been no change in the need to travel, and little shift towards other modes of travel, and those who travel today are same as those who travelled ten years ago?
Good points re: financials but as you have said before financials is not as simple as how many pax you fly or who you fly. Down also to how much you spend flying them (efficiency) and other factors. UA is by no means an efficient airline and their yield will be relatively low even with full planes.
When you say the quality has changed do you mean that you and I (and others) have changed in our intrinsic quality or that there has been movement and a different (presumably lower) quality of pax no flies UA? If so the converse is that the 'quality' of passengers flying AA and DL has risen - is that the case? Surely there has been no change in the need to travel, and little shift towards other modes of travel, and those who travel today are same as those who travelled ten years ago?
I have run the comparison to DAL's merge with NW a number of times and posted the figures. Bottom line a merger should give you a bump in yield (as you capture more high yield traffic due to the bigger/more complete network) compared to other airlines. This is what happened at DAL. AAL is predicting a similar bump in their merger, and Jeff predicted yearly "synergies" of $800M in extra revenue.
What happened in 2012-2014 is that United not only did not get a net bump in yield over its competitors, it lost substantial yield compared to AA and DAL and US. Last year it underperformed Delta by $1.5B in revenue growth (i.e had $1.5B less in top line growth in yield than it would have had if it had gotten Delta's yield growth from 2012-YE2013) and it appears to be falling further behind, and at a sharply accelerated rate, this quarter.
There is absolutely no doubt that United lost substantial numbers of High Value Fliers (UAL has said so, and the yield figures show it) and there is also no doubt that they went to other airlines, as those carriers out performed in yield. The figures do not lie. And I might add that they match the reports on FT, which yes, are self selected. But for every person who posts and says they have come to United, there are 50 who say they have stopped flying, are leaving. [And then multiple reports of people who came to UAL,and now are leaving, going back to another airline.] I fly a lot, and its also what I hear from real passengers, sitting up front, on UAL and OALs.
There should have been a new flow of passengers to United due to bigger network (the $800M/year in extra revenue) but NET, United has clearly lost, and continues to lose, very high value travelers.
Equally possible is that 100 1K's or above are leaving UA each day.
And 75 high level elites are leaving DL and AA each day and coming to UA.
UA still has the unquestionable advantage of their route network and *A (for many, not all flyers).
UA still has the best (perhaps equal to AA) FF rewards program.
People that argue that AA's 10 planes with the new Int'l C product is better that UA's 100% lie flat are exhibiting their bias, in my opinion.
When UA gets it's act together in a few more areas - eg wifi, operational efficiency, some (hopefully) soft product enhancements - then the balance of elite movement will shift back to UA away from DL (new skypeso scheme, other punative changes) and AA (if you think the USAA merger won't be a bumpy road for flyers, you are fooling yourself).
We'll see...
And 75 high level elites are leaving DL and AA each day and coming to UA.
UA still has the unquestionable advantage of their route network and *A (for many, not all flyers).
UA still has the best (perhaps equal to AA) FF rewards program.
People that argue that AA's 10 planes with the new Int'l C product is better that UA's 100% lie flat are exhibiting their bias, in my opinion.
When UA gets it's act together in a few more areas - eg wifi, operational efficiency, some (hopefully) soft product enhancements - then the balance of elite movement will shift back to UA away from DL (new skypeso scheme, other punative changes) and AA (if you think the USAA merger won't be a bumpy road for flyers, you are fooling yourself).
We'll see...
As to product, I notice you don't talk Delta???
They are 90% done with lie flat, direct isle access, and will be 100% done by start of summer. AA will have new A321s transcon vs. old dated PS interiors. Any advantage United had (and it clearly had a BIG advantage in hard product when Jeff took over) is now gone, and Delta will soon have much better hard product than UAL, with AA catching up rapidly. And oh, while United is taking dark planes and making the airbus fleet dark, Delta is spending $700,000,000 to improve its domestic hard product. http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=2232Network? Well again, when Jeff took over, United had BY FAR the best network. Now? Not so much vs. DAL, and once Delta gets SEA and the west coast flights up this spring and integrates VS into their schedule, and UAL loses the US route network, I would argue that Delta has the best network, followed by UAL, followed by AAL.
I don't think that MileagePlus is better than AA's FF program, certainly the fredies don't show it is. And while MP was much better than SkyPesos, with the recent massive increase in *A redemption rates and other changes, MP is basically useless to me, I cancelled my Chase Club card, and would rather have Alaska miles than MP when I can't use my *wood AMEX.
Here are some anecdotes about people throwing in the towel:
You will see plenty of yellow handle wraps at SFO T1 and T2.
Most every flight to/from SFO you will overhear or participate in a conversation with a United refugee tired of the abuse.
This morning at the gym, there were two gentlemen complaining about United - the crappy product, the poor treatment, Smisek, "over-entitled," all of it - and said this year they declared no mas. I did a double-take, thinking perhaps I had loaded an FT podcast.
Although it is the "most" insignificant among insignificant stories, I think the last one is telling. The non-FT'er has to be pretty fired up to complain about United on a Saturday morning when he isn't even traveling.
You will see plenty of yellow handle wraps at SFO T1 and T2.
Most every flight to/from SFO you will overhear or participate in a conversation with a United refugee tired of the abuse.
This morning at the gym, there were two gentlemen complaining about United - the crappy product, the poor treatment, Smisek, "over-entitled," all of it - and said this year they declared no mas. I did a double-take, thinking perhaps I had loaded an FT podcast.
Although it is the "most" insignificant among insignificant stories, I think the last one is telling. The non-FT'er has to be pretty fired up to complain about United on a Saturday morning when he isn't even traveling.
Mar 8, 2014, 11:46 am
#460
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas
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Posts: 6,638
Yep. Maybe I'll have to take a connection from SFO once in awhile, but atleast I'll be on time. Atleast I won't have to endure sitting in Economy more often than First, despite flying 200K a year.
Mar 8, 2014, 12:28 pm
#461
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: NYC, LON
Programs: *
Posts: 2,774
I think honestly the time will come and should come when this CPU stuff is scrapped and let those who want to sit in F pay for F in cash or miles. Then maybe the F cabins will start to look distinguished again as they did many years ago. Part of the reason for the low standards on domestic F is the knowledge (by the airlines in general, the GAs and the FAs) that most sitting in the cabins did not directly pay for the service - how then can the service be comparable, for example, to that of the JFK transcons where everyone who sits in front 'pays'?
Mar 8, 2014, 12:35 pm
#462
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Colorado
Programs: United MM (formerly 1K), Marriott Lifetime Gold
Posts: 551
Mar 8, 2014, 12:36 pm
#463
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 1,309
Really?
SEA is Delta's big attempt at a west coast hub. It's an expensive proposition and there's no guarantee it'll work. It's a much smaller market than SFO (UA's) and LA (very fragmented that nobody can dominate), and it has lots of foreign carrier competition as well as a fiercely loyal clientele to AS for domestic travel. Cracks have already started to appear. DL yanked KIX and is reducing gauge and frequencies to the two Tokyo airports this summer. This is going to be an expensive proposition. And questionable at best if it will work. SEA is the last choice delta has and the only choice for a west coast hub. Luckily they have ATL to subsidize it as they try to develop it. Shaky at best. Good luck!
Btw- have you left UA? Why do you continue to fly it if it's so awful?
Btw- have you left UA? Why do you continue to fly it if it's so awful?
First, yield has nothing to do with "efficiency." That is a cost side issue, and is shown by CASM (Cost Average Seat Mile) which is also shown in cents/mi. We could have a long discussion about costs at UAL,and why they have not fallen, even with massive cuts in passenger facing soft product and service.
I have run the comparison to DAL's merge with NW a number of times and posted the figures. Bottom line a merger should give you a bump in yield (as you capture more high yield traffic due to the bigger/more complete network) compared to other airlines. This is what happened at DAL. AAL is predicting a similar bump in their merger, and Jeff predicted yearly "synergies" of $800M in extra revenue.
What happened in 2012-2014 is that United not only did not get a net bump in yield over its competitors, it lost substantial yield compared to AA and DAL and US. Last year it underperformed Delta by $1.5B in revenue growth (i.e had $1.5B less in top line growth in yield than it would have had if it had gotten Delta's yield growth from 2012-YE2013) and it appears to be falling further behind, and at a sharply accelerated rate, this quarter.
There is absolutely no doubt that United lost substantial numbers of High Value Fliers (UAL has said so, and the yield figures show it) and there is also no doubt that they went to other airlines, as those carriers out performed in yield. The figures do not lie. And I might add that they match the reports on FT, which yes, are self selected. But for every person who posts and says they have come to United, there are 50 who say they have stopped flying, are leaving. [And then multiple reports of people who came to UAL,and now are leaving, going back to another airline.] I fly a lot, and its also what I hear from real passengers, sitting up front, on UAL and OALs.
There should have been a new flow of passengers to United due to bigger network (the $800M/year in extra revenue) but NET, United has clearly lost, and continues to lose, very high value travelers.
Dream on Lark, Dream on. The yield figures don't show that UAL is gaining back 75% of what it is losing, and the reports on FT don't suggest this. There is a massive outflow of valuable traffic, and almost no indication of a flow the other way. Over the last two years, on hundreds of UAL planes in F/standing in the "group 1" line (early GS boarding is now practically impossible) I have only found two folks who had switched to United (both for network, due to job changes) and both were unhappy, and going to quit at year end, and fly other airlines. I have also talked to many many UAL elites who had moved much of their travel off of UAL, or were going to do so at year end.
As to product, I notice you don't talk Delta??? They are 90% done with lie flat, direct isle access, and will be 100% done by start of summer. AA will have new A321s transcon vs. old dated PS interiors. Any advantage United had (and it clearly had a BIG advantage in hard product when Jeff took over) is now gone, and Delta will soon have much better hard product than UAL, with AA catching up rapidly. And oh, while United is taking dark planes and making the airbus fleet dark, Delta is spending $700,000,000 to improve its domestic hard product. http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=2232
Network? Well again, when Jeff took over, United had BY FAR the best network. Now? Not so much vs. DAL, and once Delta gets SEA and the west coast flights up this spring and integrates VS into their schedule, and UAL loses the US route network, I would argue that Delta has the best network, followed by UAL, followed by AAL.
I don't think that MileagePlus is better than AA's FF program, certainly the fredies don't show it is. And while MP was much better than SkyPesos, with the recent massive increase in *A redemption rates and other changes, MP is basically useless to me, I cancelled my Chase Club card, and would rather have Alaska miles than MP when I can't use my *wood AMEX.
I hear the same thing in SF all the time. It was so bad that the other day I was ubering to SFO and told the driver to take me to T1 as I was taking Alaska and he said "oh, at least its not united, you may even be on time." He then said that all he ever hears are complaints about United when people get dropped off at T3.
I have run the comparison to DAL's merge with NW a number of times and posted the figures. Bottom line a merger should give you a bump in yield (as you capture more high yield traffic due to the bigger/more complete network) compared to other airlines. This is what happened at DAL. AAL is predicting a similar bump in their merger, and Jeff predicted yearly "synergies" of $800M in extra revenue.
What happened in 2012-2014 is that United not only did not get a net bump in yield over its competitors, it lost substantial yield compared to AA and DAL and US. Last year it underperformed Delta by $1.5B in revenue growth (i.e had $1.5B less in top line growth in yield than it would have had if it had gotten Delta's yield growth from 2012-YE2013) and it appears to be falling further behind, and at a sharply accelerated rate, this quarter.
There is absolutely no doubt that United lost substantial numbers of High Value Fliers (UAL has said so, and the yield figures show it) and there is also no doubt that they went to other airlines, as those carriers out performed in yield. The figures do not lie. And I might add that they match the reports on FT, which yes, are self selected. But for every person who posts and says they have come to United, there are 50 who say they have stopped flying, are leaving. [And then multiple reports of people who came to UAL,and now are leaving, going back to another airline.] I fly a lot, and its also what I hear from real passengers, sitting up front, on UAL and OALs.
There should have been a new flow of passengers to United due to bigger network (the $800M/year in extra revenue) but NET, United has clearly lost, and continues to lose, very high value travelers.
Dream on Lark, Dream on. The yield figures don't show that UAL is gaining back 75% of what it is losing, and the reports on FT don't suggest this. There is a massive outflow of valuable traffic, and almost no indication of a flow the other way. Over the last two years, on hundreds of UAL planes in F/standing in the "group 1" line (early GS boarding is now practically impossible) I have only found two folks who had switched to United (both for network, due to job changes) and both were unhappy, and going to quit at year end, and fly other airlines. I have also talked to many many UAL elites who had moved much of their travel off of UAL, or were going to do so at year end.
As to product, I notice you don't talk Delta???
They are 90% done with lie flat, direct isle access, and will be 100% done by start of summer. AA will have new A321s transcon vs. old dated PS interiors. Any advantage United had (and it clearly had a BIG advantage in hard product when Jeff took over) is now gone, and Delta will soon have much better hard product than UAL, with AA catching up rapidly. And oh, while United is taking dark planes and making the airbus fleet dark, Delta is spending $700,000,000 to improve its domestic hard product. http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=2232Network? Well again, when Jeff took over, United had BY FAR the best network. Now? Not so much vs. DAL, and once Delta gets SEA and the west coast flights up this spring and integrates VS into their schedule, and UAL loses the US route network, I would argue that Delta has the best network, followed by UAL, followed by AAL.
I don't think that MileagePlus is better than AA's FF program, certainly the fredies don't show it is. And while MP was much better than SkyPesos, with the recent massive increase in *A redemption rates and other changes, MP is basically useless to me, I cancelled my Chase Club card, and would rather have Alaska miles than MP when I can't use my *wood AMEX.
I hear the same thing in SF all the time. It was so bad that the other day I was ubering to SFO and told the driver to take me to T1 as I was taking Alaska and he said "oh, at least its not united, you may even be on time." He then said that all he ever hears are complaints about United when people get dropped off at T3.
Mar 8, 2014, 12:41 pm
#464
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 7_0_6 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/537.51.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/7.0 Mobile/11B651 Safari/9537.53)
So you believe sitting in first when you paid for economy should be a right if you fly 200K a year? Interesting thought process.
I think honestly the time will come and should come when this CPU stuff is scrapped and let those who want to sit in F pay for F in cash or miles. Then maybe the F cabins will start to look distinguished again as they did many years ago. Part of the reason for the low standards on domestic F is the knowledge (by the airlines in general, the GAs and the FAs) that most sitting in the cabins did not directly pay for the service - how then can the service be comparable, for example, to that of the JFK transcons where everyone who sits in front 'pays'?
Thanks for your kindhearted input. Other airlines apparently value elite flyers more to make sure top tiers have a comp F seat 90% or so of the time , and they're also currently making more $ than UA.
Originally Posted by ani90
I think honestly the time will come and should come when this CPU stuff is scrapped and let those who want to sit in F pay for F in cash or miles. Then maybe the F cabins will start to look distinguished again as they did many years ago. Part of the reason for the low standards on domestic F is the knowledge (by the airlines in general, the GAs and the FAs) that most sitting in the cabins did not directly pay for the service - how then can the service be comparable, for example, to that of the JFK transcons where everyone who sits in front 'pays'?
Mar 8, 2014, 12:42 pm
#465
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