+1

Anyone with extensive UA experience already got their well-needed exec team change...

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Admittedly- yes. Sometimes
It gets worse before it gets better.

Actually, this argument is true and one that I actually made for myself. Consistent mediocrity is liveable, and it allows good service to shine through. Especially since United has many choice flights out of here at a lower price point than any other airline. Tobe honest if the Chase Explorer card provided a companion ticket versus club passes, I may seriously favorr United.

Cracks me up every month when somebody posts the new numbers are here and United is at the bottom or near the bottom.

They have been there for years. They don't care.

The numbers don't mean anything. The planes are still fairly full, the prices are still high, and people are still flying.

They have had years to change the numbers, they don't care.

Load factor numbers don't really tell us much in terms of elites buying or not buying UA tickets. Load factor is relatively easy to increase simply by lowering ticket prices (or not increasing them as much as the competition) and selling them to highly price sensitive shoppers.

As you mention, the PRASM numbers will be far more telling.

April's consolidated PRASM increase (compared to the same month in 2011) was 4.5%, the May results were (0.8%) (yes, negative), and the increase for June was estimated at between 5.0% and 6.0%. Overall, for the quarter, the results were abysmal compared to DL (or AA).

Someone recently posted that UA had such impressive results in 2Q2011 that it would be very difficult to increase unit revenue much beyond the 2011 numbers - the law of large numbers.

All bets are off if they beat AND they meet or exceed the financials of other US Legacy airline company's. If they do that, the beatings will continue until our moral improves. But, the jury is still out until Summer travel is over and business travel is all thats left. Thats when the rubber will meet the road.

Nope. The financials are what really matter. Thats what will determine this groups future.

RIGHT ON! +1

Nope. We're now after after the CO Regional Airline business management group. We now see how well we really had it with the pmUA folks no longer there. Those Ex pmUA folks were BRILLIANT in comparison.

Jeff was right. Definitely some changes we are going to like. Hope he gets his $14 million bonus for this great work.

Hindsight is always 20/20

The difference is that while we moaned and groaned about some things (any org can keep improving) there wasn't a mass-exodus. Again the next few quarters' earnings will possibly have a big effect on the grand hypothesis that we espouse here - that FT is, in fact, a microcosm of the elites that keep airlines flying. It will likely either be humbling or fantastically validating - the latter leading to top mgmt being replaced pronto. Will be interesting either way!

We are actually in agreement. I had meant to insinuate that many people are rooting for a negative PRASM change. A flat result won't quicken "$misek"'s demise, so it will be greeted with disappointment. But as a consolation, UA's PRASM will probably trail the other carriers, so there's still fuel to the fire.

So we're seeing the same thing, UA's PRASM change will probably be ~ 0. It will be interesting to see how well the other carriers did in 2Q12. Something tells me that US will report some bonanza numbers--just a feeling and not based on analysis of any sort.

Actually in May United consolidated was +.8%, but MAINLINE was (.4)% This compares to DL/UA/SW at +6% and AA at +7.3%

June's numbers for UA are consolidated +5-6%, mainline +4-5%. However, there is an adjustment for some business interuption claim of +1% (see UA press release), not sure if that fixes it, or if the comp is still off at June 2011 was the aftermath of the Japan Tsunami. I am assuming that one needs to take off 1% to adjust for the actual performance.

For comparison, DL/US/SW were at +6% and American was at +8.6%.

So, UA actually did better this month than the last two months, but still fell further behind all of the competition.

But as others have said, the Q2 financials will be interesting, as will Q3, and then Q4 when the summer rush is over.

and p.s. Not sure why all the speculation, all of the major carriers traffic reports were out as of last light, only Jet Blue has not released yet.

Nomalize that for AA, which I believe reduced service 2.6% vs UA which increased service (only a tiny bit .1%). It is easy to get RASM gains when you reduce service, more difficult when you add service. Simple laws of supply/demand. Reduce supply for same demand, and people pay more. Increase supply with same demand, people pay less.

Demand in't constant. Given the different routes each airline flies, demand variations based on time aren't the same. Similarly, even across the same airline it's a combination of flights being removed and added - and demand varies by route.

Your statement is true demand is neither 100% elastic, nor inelastic, but the premise of my statement is also true. Airlines have reduced capacity (or added with discipline) the past few years (in conjunction with consolidating airlines) in order to assure higher yields. Just about any finanical report on any of the US based network carriers over the past few years will emphasize the fact that airlines have learned from the past and reduced flying to maintain yields, or added flying in smaller quantities then the past for the same reason.

A side benefit that helps AA of reducing flyin a few % is that aircraft utilization drops, which means a) older more mechanical prone aircraft are not being flown (i.e. less mechanicals) or b) all/most aircraft are bing flown less, giving less stress and more fix time.
I'm not knocking the business practice, it makes sense, but it also is an easy way to show gains to these metrics compared to an airlinethat expands, which will have a tougher time getting the same stats.